UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#131
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#210
Pace79.1#13
Improvement-2.4#322

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#105
First Shot+3.7#78
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#231
Layup/Dunks+3.0#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#246
Freethrows+2.2#73
Improvement-2.7#357

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot+0.5#151
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#268
Layups/Dunks+0.6#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#41
Freethrows-3.1#333
Improvement+0.3#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 11.7 12.5
.500 or above 26.6% 44.3% 21.1%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 49.6% 35.8%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.6% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.0% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.8% 3.0% 1.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 64 - 11
Quad 34 - 58 - 16
Quad 46 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 239 Tennessee Martin L 81-86 81%     0 - 1 -12.5 -4.4 -7.4
  Sat, Nov 8 209 Chattanooga W 101-69 78%     1 - 1 +26.0 +26.8 +0.2
  Tue, Nov 11 197 Montana L 93-102 76%     1 - 2 -14.4 +3.9 -17.1
  Sun, Nov 16 75 @Memphis W 92-78 21%     2 - 2 +24.6 +14.2 +8.7
  Thu, Nov 20 184 Saint Joseph's W 99-85 74%     3 - 2 +9.3 +13.4 -5.8
  Mon, Nov 24 86 Maryland L 67-74 35%     3 - 3 -0.9 -4.9 +4.2
  Tue, Nov 25 11 Alabama L 76-115 7%     3 - 4 -20.2 +0.3 -16.2
  Thu, Nov 27 120 Rutgers L 65-80 46%     3 - 5 -11.9 -4.8 -7.2
  Sun, Dec 7 84 @Stanford L 79-87 24%    
  Sat, Dec 13 249 Tennessee St. W 86-76 82%    
  Sat, Dec 20 179 Fresno St. W 86-80 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 332 Air Force W 82-67 92%    
  Tue, Jan 6 106 @Wyoming L 78-83 32%    
  Fri, Jan 9 74 @Colorado St. L 74-83 22%    
  Tue, Jan 13 59 Boise St. L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 185 @San Jose St. W 78-77 53%    
  Tue, Jan 20 51 @Utah St. L 75-87 15%    
  Sat, Jan 24 52 San Diego St. L 78-83 32%    
  Tue, Jan 27 103 New Mexico W 85-84 52%    
  Fri, Jan 30 105 @Nevada L 77-82 32%    
  Tue, Feb 3 179 @Fresno St. W 83-82 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 94 Grand Canyon L 78-79 50%    
  Tue, Feb 10 185 San Jose St. W 81-74 73%    
  Fri, Feb 13 59 @Boise St. L 71-81 18%    
  Wed, Feb 18 74 Colorado St. L 77-80 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 332 @Air Force W 79-70 79%    
  Wed, Feb 25 94 @Grand Canyon L 76-82 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 105 Nevada W 80-79 53%    
  Tue, Mar 3 51 Utah St. L 78-84 31%    
  Fri, Mar 6 52 @San Diego St. L 75-86 17%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.6 4.4 0.8 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 5.2 1.3 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 6.0 4.9 1.3 0.1 15.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.7 3.7 1.0 0.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.5 6.3 9.1 12.6 13.5 13.8 12.5 9.9 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 94.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 63.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 8.8% 8.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.6% 18.3% 18.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.4% 13.8% 11.7% 2.1% 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 2.4%
14-6 2.6% 9.6% 9.5% 0.1% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 0.1%
13-7 4.7% 6.6% 6.6% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.4
12-8 7.1% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.8
11-9 9.9% 2.8% 2.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6
10-10 12.5% 1.3% 1.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.3
9-11 13.8% 0.7% 0.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.7
8-12 13.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.1 0.0 13.4
7-13 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.6
6-14 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-16 3.5% 3.5
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.1 0.0%