Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #241
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #191
Pace 74.9 #44
Improvement -0.6 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #216 D- C C+ D+ D-
Defense #260 F C- C+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.14 #198 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #24 0.67 #304 +2.5 #64
Three Pointers 29% #356 0.90 #314 -7.5 #351
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #308 -4.6 #309
Freethrows 15.5 #292 75% #96 11.6 #257
Second Chance 29.7% #210 1.06 #156 0.32 #184
Turnovers 15.9% #143
Total Offense -1.7 #216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #12 1.25 #287 -6.6 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #347 0.87 #327 +1.6 #73
Three Pointers 39% #228 1.06 #239 -0.1 #185
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #328 -5.1 #327
Freethrows 21.3 #335 75% #325 16.0 #344
Second Chance 32.4% #259 1.03 #168 0.34 #226
Turnovers 17.3% #125
Total Defense -2.7 #260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #318 2.8% #360
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.9% #292 7.1% #308
Possession Length 16.6 #107 16.5 #55
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #105 0.24 #343
Improvement +3.2 #35 -3.8 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 21.6% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 90.9% 97.3% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 98.9% 92.6%
Conference Champion 16.9% 29.6% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
First Round15.5% 20.9% 12.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 38.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 5
Quad 414 - 716 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 82 @Belmont L 79 - 87 9% -6  0 - 1 +2 -1 F C- B- +4 B- A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 162 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 25% -9  0 - 2 -10 +4 C+ F C- -13 F F D
 Thu, Nov 20 22 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0 - 3 -9 -9 F D F +3 B+ D+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 205 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 33% -3  1 - 3 +2 -1 F A F +3 F A- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 247 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 40% +8  2 - 3 +4 +1 F C+ B+ +4 A F F
 Wed, Dec 3 301 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 52% -9  2 - 4 -32 -17 F C F -17 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 114 @UNLV W 63 - 60 16% -2  3 - 4 +9 -8 D- B+ F +17 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 226 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 59% +15  4 - 4 1 - 0 +0 +4 B- F C+ -4 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 20 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 62% -10  4 - 5 1 - 1 -17 +0 F F A+ -16 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 342 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 66% +9  5 - 5 2 - 1 +3 +12 C- A+ C -8 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 282 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 47% +3  6 - 5 3 - 1 +1 +4 F A A+ -3 B- F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 356 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 74% +14  7 - 5 4 - 1 +11 +12 B- A+ D -1 B- C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 310 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 55% -8  7 - 6 4 - 2 -10 +1 D+ F C -11 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 302 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 74% +5  8 - 6 5 - 2 -6 +15 A+ B C+ -21 F C F
 Sat, Jan 17 329 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 81% +4  9 - 6 6 - 2 -8 -0 D+ D A+ -7 F C- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 257 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 41% -2  9 - 7 6 - 3 -10 +2 F C+ A+ -13 F C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 237 @Lindenwood L 79 - 82 38%
 Tue, Jan 27 342 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 72 83%
 Thu, Jan 29 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 79 - 74 69%
 Thu, Feb 5 310 Eastern Illinois W 75 - 68 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 356 Western Illinois W 79 - 66 88%
 Thu, Feb 12 329 @Southern Indiana W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 302 @Morehead St. W 77 - 76 53%
 Thu, Feb 19 237 Lindenwood W 82 - 79 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 257 SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 69 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 226 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 75 37%
Totals 15 - 11 12 - 7 -4 -2 D- C C+ -3 F C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 7.4 5.8 1.4 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 10.3 7.6 1.1 0.0 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 8.1 8.0 0.9 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.2 4.1 9.3 1.4 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 7.4 3.0 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.8 4.3 0.2 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.3 0.6 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 3.9 9.3 17.0 22.6 22.0 15.8 6.9 1.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 98.3% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-5 84.0% 5.8    3.8 1.8 0.1
14-6 46.6% 7.4    2.2 3.5 1.5 0.2
13-7 10.2% 2.3    0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 7.4 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.4% 42.7% 42.7% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8
15-5 6.9% 35.8% 35.8% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.2 4.4
14-6 15.8% 30.4% 30.4% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.9 1.5 11.0
13-7 22.0% 19.4% 19.4% 15.4 0.2 2.0 2.1 17.8
12-8 22.6% 10.7% 10.7% 15.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 20.1
11-9 17.0% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 15.9
10-10 9.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.1 0.4 8.9
9-11 3.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 3.8
8-12 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 15.3 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.7 3.3 36.9 50.8 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%