Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#216
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#249
Pace74.2#69
Improvement-1.1#263

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#241
First Shot-5.3#322
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#43
Layup/Dunks+1.2#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#338
Freethrows-2.7#323
Improvement-0.7#233

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot-1.8#233
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#125
Layups/Dunks+0.2#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#37
Freethrows-5.1#360
Improvement-0.5#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 21.8% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 61.7% 75.1% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 89.8% 71.9%
Conference Champion 19.6% 28.5% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.4% 2.1%
First Four4.6% 4.8% 4.4%
First Round15.0% 19.5% 10.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 413 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 45 @Saint Louis L 67-92 6%     0 - 1 -11.1 -4.4 -4.3
  Fri, Nov 7 37 @Missouri L 84-89 5%     0 - 2 +10.8 +9.2 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 15 169 St. Thomas L 72-84 51%     0 - 3 -15.8 -9.1 -5.7
  Tue, Nov 18 25 @Iowa L 70-99 4%     0 - 4 -11.4 +7.0 -19.1
  Tue, Nov 25 252 Cal Poly W 84-68 56%     1 - 4 +10.9 +3.1 +6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 251 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 44%     1 - 5 -9.0 -1.1 -8.0
  Sat, Nov 29 161 Lipscomb L 77-88 50%     1 - 6 -14.5 -5.9 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 6 222 @Chattanooga W 74-70 39%     2 - 6 +3.2 +3.5 +0.0
  Thu, Dec 18 271 @Tennessee Tech L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Dec 20 249 @Tennessee St. L 75-77 44%    
  Thu, Jan 1 329 Eastern Illinois W 76-67 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 361 Western Illinois W 78-64 90%    
  Thu, Jan 8 314 @Southern Indiana W 79-77 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 325 @Morehead St. W 76-73 62%    
  Thu, Jan 15 236 Lindenwood W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 230 SIU Edwardsville W 72-69 62%    
  Tue, Jan 20 240 Tennessee Martin W 74-70 64%    
  Thu, Jan 22 315 Arkansas Little Rock W 76-68 77%    
  Thu, Jan 29 361 @Western Illinois W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 329 @Eastern Illinois W 73-70 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 325 Morehead St. W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 314 Southern Indiana W 82-74 76%    
  Thu, Feb 12 230 @SIU Edwardsville L 69-72 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 236 @Lindenwood L 77-79 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 240 @Tennessee Martin L 71-73 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 315 @Arkansas Little Rock W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 271 Tennessee Tech W 79-74 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.8 4.7 2.6 1.0 0.2 19.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.8 6.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.8 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.7 1.3 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.3 7.7 10.5 12.5 13.9 13.5 11.6 8.9 5.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
17-3 96.7% 2.6    2.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 85.1% 4.7    3.7 0.9 0.0
15-5 65.5% 5.8    3.4 2.0 0.4 0.0
14-6 32.4% 3.8    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-7 9.8% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.2 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 66.2% 66.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.0% 56.6% 56.6% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4
17-3 2.7% 41.9% 41.9% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.6
16-4 5.5% 42.7% 42.7% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 3.2
15-5 8.9% 35.4% 35.4% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 5.7
14-6 11.6% 28.4% 28.4% 15.6 0.1 1.1 2.1 8.3
13-7 13.5% 20.3% 20.3% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.2 10.8
12-8 13.9% 13.6% 13.6% 15.9 0.2 1.7 12.0
11-9 12.5% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.1 1.0 11.4
10-10 10.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.0
9-11 7.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.5
8-12 5.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.2
7-13 3.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.3 9.5 82.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 4.7 51.2 37.2 7.0