Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 230
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 239
Pace 72.7 72
Improvement +1.4 129

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #255 C- B- C C- B-
Defense C #196 D+ C- B- F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 55% 249 +1.7 117
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 210 39% 125 -0.3 192
Three Pointers 37% 256 31% 280 -3.2 289
1st FG Attempt 0.98 227 -1.8 226
Second Chance 28.2% 245 1.25 7 0.35 94
Turnovers 17.0% 189
Freethrows 0.31 156 67% 332 0.21 216
Total Offense -3.0 255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 43 57% 148 -2.8 275
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 273 45% 349 +0.0 197
Three Pointers 38% 258 36% 256 +0.4 165
1st FG Attempt 1.07 260 -2.4 260
Second Chance 28.7% 101 1.19 348 0.34 253
Turnovers 18.4% 97
Freethrows 0.40 361 75% 310 0.30 363
Total Defense -0.7 196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 108 +0.8 313
Shot Type Accuracy -2.3 254 +1.6 238
Possession Length 16.7 113 16.9 119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 258 0.20 275
Improvement +0.8 #136 +0.6 #143

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 20% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 87% 98% 80%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 12% 22% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 3%
First Round14% 19% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 414 - 816 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 22 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  22% 0 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 D+ F+ A C+ +2 B C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 48 @Missouri L 84 - 89 6% -2  32% 0 - 2 B +9 B +6 A- C+ D- B- +4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 123 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 38% -13  0% 0 - 3 D- -13 F -11 F+ C C+ C -1 F A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 25 @Iowa L 70 - 99 3% -19  0% 0 - 4 D -10 B- +4 B- A+ D F -15 F+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 265 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 59% +3  38% 1 - 4 B +10 C- -1 D+ C+ C A +10 A+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 26 311 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 59% -7  1% 1 - 5 D- -13 F+ -9 F C A D+ -4 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 187 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 54% -4  18% 1 - 6 F+ -16 F -11 F D+ F+ D+ -4 F+ C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 282 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 51% -1  22% 2 - 6 C +0 C +1 C+ B D- C -1 F D- B
 Thu, Dec 18 320 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 63% -2  47% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F -18 D- -8 F B+ F F+ -10 C F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 235 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 40% +10  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 B- +8 B +6 A A+ F C+ +1 C A- D-
 Thu, Jan 1 326 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 82% -2  37% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ A+ A B +5 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 362 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 93% +9  80% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +3 D -6 D+ A+ D A +11 B+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 340 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 69% +5  73% 6 - 7 4 - 1 C -1 B+ +8 A+ F B D- -9 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 292 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 54% +4  86% 6 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -7 C +1 D- C A+ D- -8 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 246 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 65% -17  2% 6 - 9 4 - 3 F -20 F -12 F B+ C D -6 D F C
 Sat, Jan 17 245 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 65% -16  0% 6 - 10 4 - 4 F -21 F -14 F+ D- F D- -7 F+ D- C-
 Tue, Jan 20 219 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 59% +18  99% 7 - 10 5 - 4 B +10 D+ -3 D+ A- C- A+ +15 A C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 76% +5  85% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 D- F B+ B- +3 B C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 83% +2  72% 9 - 10 7 - 4 D -10 C- -2 C+ D F D- -8 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 326 @Eastern Illinois W 77 - 59 63% +12  97% 10 - 10 8 - 4 B +11 B+ +8 A+ F A- B- +4 D+ C+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 292 Morehead St. W 82 - 70 75% +9  93% 11 - 10 9 - 4 C +1 C -0 B- A+ F C+ +2 F+ C- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 340 Southern Indiana W 90 - 65 85% +5  53% 12 - 10 10 - 4 B +10 A+ +15 C- A+ A+ D+ -4 C D D+
 Thu, Feb 12 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 69 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 246 @Lindenwood L 78 - 80 42%
 Tue, Feb 17 219 @Tennessee Martin L 67 - 71 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 301 @Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 320 Tennessee Tech W 80 - 71 80%
Totals 15 - 12 13 - 6 -4 D+ -3 C- B- C C -1 D+ C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C+ D+ D+ 43% 19% 37% B- C- C- A B- C C+ D- C- C C+ F+ D+ C- 44% 18% 38% D D+ C+ F+ C- B- F D F
1.04 55% 39% 31% -2 +1 0.98 28% 1.2 .35 17% .31 67% .21 1.10 57% 45% 36% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.2 .34 18% .40 75% .23
Nov
3		 Saint Louis D C D F+ C 25% 42% 32% F D+ F D- F+ A B+ D B C+ F+ B A- B+ 49% 5% 46% C- B F+ A C+ B+ D+ F D-
0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26 1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27
Nov
7		 Missouri B A- A+ C A 26% 31% 43% D A- A F C+ D- B+ A A B- F F D- F 41% 33% 27% A+ F A- A+ A+ A+ F A- F
1.09 64% 53% 35% +7 -2 1.11 38% 0.7 .26 21% .34 81% .28 1.15 75% 63% 38% +17 -1 1.33 31% 0.9 .28 25% .53 61% .33
Nov
15		 St. Thomas F D D- F+ F+ 46% 23% 32% C- F+ F A+ C C+ F F F C F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% D+ F A+ F A- A+ F F F
0.94 54% 31% 28% -6 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11 1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36
Nov
18		 Iowa B- D A+ C B- 46% 17% 37% B B- A- A+ A+ D A F C+ F F F D- F 41% 14% 45% C- F+ D+ F F C+ F C+ F
1.03 53% 57% 33% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.5 .52 25% .41 57% .23 1.45 78% 67% 40% +16 +1 1.36 36% 1.8 .64 16% .68 74% .51
Nov
25		 Cal Poly C- C- A F+ D- 50% 7% 43% A D+ C+ C C+ C C- A+ B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% B+ A+ F F F A- F F+ F
1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24 0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56
Nov
26		 Northern Arizona F+ D+ F F F 59% 7% 34% A F D A- C A F+ F F D+ C D B- C 49% 26% 26% D+ C C- F F C- F D- F
1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11 1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
29		 Lipscomb F D- B F F 43% 26% 30% C F C F+ D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D+ C- C F F 43% 11% 45% C- F+ A- F C+ B+ F B F
0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36 1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30
Dec
6		 Chattanooga C C+ D- B C+ 35% 19% 46% C- C+ C A B D- F F F C B- F F F 48% 22% 30% D F B F D- B D+ C- D
1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09 1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24
Dec
18		 Tennessee Tech D- F D F F 38% 13% 50% B- F B B B+ F A+ B- A+ F+ C+ A+ F C 43% 24% 33% C- C C+ F F+ F F F F
1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41 1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57
Dec
20		 Tennessee St. B B A+ A A 44% 13% 42% C A C+ A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C+ D+ A F C- 40% 36% 25% B C A B A- D- F C+ F
1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38 1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
1		 Eastern Illinois F+ F F F+ F 65% 4% 31% A+ F+ D+ A+ A+ A C F F B A D+ F+ C 53% 18% 29% F D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F C+ F
0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15 0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28
Jan
3		 Western Illinois D D+ A+ D- D 59% 11% 30% A- D+ C A+ A+ D B D- C+ A A- C A+ A- 34% 27% 39% C- B+ B+ A A- A+ F F+ F
1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24 0.77 43% 36% 19% -14 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39
Jan
8		 Southern Indiana B+ A- B A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% C- A+ F+ F F B A+ F C+ D- C+ F B+ F 41% 14% 45% F F F F F A- F F F
1.20 68% 42% 54% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 13% .46 54% .25 1.08 50% 71% 27% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .41 21% .49 85% .42
Jan
10		 Morehead St. C B+ F F D- 41% 22% 37% D D- D+ B- C A+ B+ D B- D- F F F F 41% 34% 24% B- F D B+ C+ B- F+ C+ D-
1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25 1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27
Jan
15		 Lindenwood F F F+ D+ F 50% 12% 38% B F C- A+ B+ C A- D- B- D C A+ B- C- 61% 4% 35% F D D F F C F C+ F
0.93 41% 29% 32% -11 +2 0.84 31% 1.4 .44 17% .39 65% .25 1.08 57% 0% 29% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.5 .51 20% .53 66% .35
Jan
17		 SIU Edwardsville F F A+ F F 45% 24% 31% B- F+ F A D- F A+ F A- D- A- F F F+ 43% 24% 33% F F+ C+ F D- C- D D+ D
0.87 37% 50% 23% -12 0 0.79 20% 1.2 .23 20% .46 65% .30 1.07 45% 45% 47% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.3 .35 17% .32 71% .23
Jan
20		 Tennessee Martin D+ D F+ C- D+ 27% 15% 58% B- D+ B+ B+ A- C- C F D- A+ B- A- A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% F A F A C+ A+ F A- F
1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17 0.78 54% 33% 20% -13 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30
Jan
22		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ B- D D- D- 43% 12% 45% C+ D- F F F B+ A C A- B- A+ A- F B+ 37% 30% 33% D+ B A F C+ F D- D D-
1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26 0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20
Jan
29		 Western Illinois C- A+ F F C 51% 7% 42% A- C+ F A+ D F A+ D A+ D- C B+ D F 35% 14% 51% F F B A- B+ F F C- F
1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41 1.07 53% 29% 36% -1 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32
Jan
31		 Eastern Illinois B+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 8% 49% B A+ D F F A- F D- F B- A+ B F C- 49% 20% 31% F D+ B+ F+ C+ B C- C+ C-
1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14 0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Morehead St. C D- A A+ B- 51% 13% 36% B B- C A+ A+ F A- D+ B C+ B- F D+ F+ 48% 23% 29% F+ F+ A+ F C- B- B D- B-
1.17 50% 50% 47% +5 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27 1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20
Feb
7		 Southern Indiana A+ A- C F C- 53% 23% 23% C C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A- F A- C+ 44% 18% 38% F+ C D+ D D D+ F D F
1.33 68% 36% 18% -1 +1 1.02 44% 1.6 .70 9% .52 88% .45 0.96 41% 44% 26% -11 +1 0.82 30% 0.9 .27 16% .41 70% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.8 7.6 3.3 11.7 1st
2nd 0.3 10.4 7.8 0.2 18.7 2nd
3rd 4.4 15.3 0.7 20.4 3rd
4th 0.8 12.3 5.3 18.4 4th
5th 0.1 5.4 11.2 0.6 17.2 5th
6th 1.7 8.1 2.6 12.4 6th
7th 0.7 0.5 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.6 14.8 30.8 32.3 16.0 3.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 93.5% 3.3    1.9 1.3 0.1
14-6 47.5% 7.6    0.7 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.1
13-7 2.4% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 2.6 4.7 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 3.5% 36.8% 36.8% 14.5 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 2.2
14-6 16.0% 27.4% 27.4% 15.4 0.2 2.1 2.1 11.7
13-7 32.3% 16.1% 16.1% 15.6 0.1 1.9 3.2 27.1
12-8 30.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.7 2.5 27.6
11-9 14.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.1 1.0 13.7
10-10 2.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 15.5 84.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 14.5 3.1 43.8 48.5 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 1.2%