Missouri
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.8 #50
Expected Predictive Rating +12.3 #45
Pace 67.6 #223
Improvement +1.3 #119

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #43 A A- D+ C+ B-
Defense #82 B- B- C+ B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #46 1.36 #17 +7.7 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.72 #230 -1.4 #250
Three Pointers 38% #240 1.11 #58 +0.4 #169
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #27 +6.6 #27
Freethrows 20.3 #59 67% #322 13.7 #129
Second Chance 35.1% #58 1.19 #32 0.42 #35
Turnovers 17.7% #262
Total Offense +7.3 #43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.04 #50 +6.7 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #67 0.68 #70 -0.6 #228
Three Pointers 46% #54 1.05 #220 -3.1 #302
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #83 +3.0 #84
Freethrows 15.6 #72 73% #230 11.4 #85
Second Chance 29.2% #123 0.98 #91 0.29 #96
Turnovers 17.1% #140
Total Defense +3.5 #82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #81 -2.2% #32
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.4% #29 -3.8% #111
Possession Length 16.6 #108 18.6 #332
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #53 0.14 #66
Improvement -1.2 #251 +2.5 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 3.5% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.7% 52.9% 32.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.3% 52.5% 32.2%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.3
.500 or above 92.3% 96.9% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.5% 49.9% 23.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 1.4% 9.6%
First Four9.1% 9.3% 8.8%
First Round41.0% 48.2% 27.9%
Second Round17.5% 20.9% 11.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 3.9% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 55 - 11
Quad 23 - 38 - 14
Quad 31 - 010 - 14
Quad 49 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 265 @Howard W 88 - 67 89% +14  1 - 0 +18 +15 A+ A+ F +3 C A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 89 - 84 95% +2  2 - 0 -3 +6 A+ F F -9 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 349 VMI W 106 - 68 98% +11  3 - 0 +23 +17 D A+ A- +3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 71 Minnesota W 83 - 60 71% +3  4 - 0 +28 +24 A+ A+ A+ +7 B A+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 317 Prairie View W 91 - 73 97% +19  5 - 0 +5 +5 B- C C -1 B+ C F
 Thu, Nov 20 283 South Dakota W 102 - 68 96% +14  6 - 0 +24 +17 A+ A- F +6 A- F A
 Tue, Nov 25 359 South Carolina St. W 98 - 66 99% +24  7 - 0 +14 +17 F A+ B+ -3 B B F
 Fri, Nov 28 316 Cleveland St. W 86 - 59 97% +19  8 - 0 +15 +3 B- A+ F +12 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 84 @Notre Dame L 71 - 76 53% +1  8 - 1 +5 +5 C+ C F -0 C A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 19 @Kansas L 60 - 80 18% -8  8 - 2 +0 +2 C B- D+ -3 A F C
 Thu, Dec 11 311 Alabama St. W 85 - 77 97% +11  9 - 2 -4 +17 A+ A+ C -19 F F F
 Sun, Dec 14 269 Bethune-Cookman W 82 - 60 96% +15  10 - 2 +13 +8 B+ A+ F +6 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 9 Illinois L 48 - 91 18% -17  10 - 3 -23 -11 F F F -17 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 10 Florida W 76 - 74 26% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +19 +14 A+ A C+ +6 A A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 25 @Kentucky W 73 - 68 22% -0  12 - 3 2 - 0 +24 +11 A+ D- C +13 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 62 @Mississippi L 69 - 76 46% +1  12 - 4 2 - 1 +5 +6 A+ D+ D -1 B+ C+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 27 Auburn W 84 - 74 46% +4  13 - 4 3 - 1 +22 +16 A+ D C- +6 A+ B B+
 Sat, Jan 17 43 @LSU L 70 - 78 34% -7  13 - 5 3 - 2 +7 +12 C- A+ F -6 A+ F F
 Tue, Jan 20 24 Georgia L 72 - 74 42% -2  13 - 6 3 - 3 +11 +7 B+ D+ B- +4 A A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 57 Oklahoma W 79 - 75 65%
 Tue, Jan 27 17 @Alabama L 81 - 91 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 76 Mississippi St. W 78 - 72 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 69 @South Carolina L 73 - 74 49%
 Wed, Feb 11 34 @Texas A&M L 77 - 83 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 38 Texas W 79 - 78 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 21 Vanderbilt L 78 - 81 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 20 @Arkansas L 78 - 87 18%
 Tue, Feb 24 22 Tennessee L 72 - 75 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 76 @Mississippi St. W 76 - 75 50%
 Tue, Mar 3 57 @Oklahoma L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Mar 7 20 Arkansas L 81 - 84 37%
Totals 18 - 13 8 - 10 +11 +7 A A- D+ +3 B- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 2.2 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 1.0 4.3 0.9 6.2 6th
7th 0.3 4.3 3.7 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 6.8 1.3 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 6.4 4.5 0.1 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 3.9 7.9 1.2 13.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 7.8 3.2 0.1 12.6 11th
12th 0.2 4.3 4.8 0.4 9.8 12th
13th 0.0 1.3 4.6 1.3 0.0 7.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.7 0.1 4.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.3 2.8 15th
16th 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 16th
Total 0.3 1.9 5.7 12.4 18.7 20.4 17.9 12.3 6.7 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 45.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 18.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.8% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.6% 99.2% 4.0% 95.2% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-7 6.7% 96.9% 2.2% 94.7% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 96.8%
10-8 12.3% 89.9% 1.1% 88.8% 8.6 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 3.8 1.9 0.3 1.2 89.8%
9-9 17.9% 77.4% 0.6% 76.8% 9.3 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 4.8 1.6 4.0 77.3%
8-10 20.4% 39.6% 0.5% 39.1% 10.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.4 0.1 12.3 39.3%
7-11 18.7% 13.0% 0.2% 12.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 0.1 16.3 12.8%
6-12 12.4% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.3 1.1%
5-13 5.7% 5.7
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.7% 0.7% 44.9% 9.0 54.3 45.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%