Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #311
Expected Predictive Rating -11.8 #336
Pace 71.3 #111
Improvement -3.8 #334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #283 D D+ C- C D+
Defense #307 D- F C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.07 #278 -2.0 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #93 0.68 #291 +0.8 #136
Three Pointers 37% #260 0.98 #232 -2.5 #273
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #283 -3.7 #283
Freethrows 17.6 #193 71% #224 12.5 #191
Second Chance 31.1% #170 0.88 #350 0.27 #275
Turnovers 17.5% #248
Total Offense -4.0 #283

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #188 1.28 #320 -2.4 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #319 0.70 #94 +2.3 #32
Three Pointers 46% #56 1.11 #300 -4.5 #334
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #317 -4.7 #317
Freethrows 20.4 #314 74% #286 15.2 #325
Second Chance 34.9% #322 1.15 #301 0.40 #338
Turnovers 17.4% #120
Total Defense -4.6 #307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #268 1.3% #283
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.2% #278 7.8% #318
Possession Length 17.1 #154 17.0 #124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #74 0.26 #359
Improvement -4.3 #356 +0.5 #153

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.4% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 4.4% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 41.9% 57.4% 30.4%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four6.0% 7.9% 4.5%
First Round3.4% 4.6% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 410 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 111 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 8% -20  0 - 1 -30 -13 F C D -13 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 117 @UAB W 77 - 74 9% +4  1 - 1 +9 +2 C D- B+ +6 B+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 78 @Colorado L 66 - 94 5% -19  1 - 2 -17 -4 F D C -13 F F B-
 Wed, Nov 19 340 @Air Force L 64 - 66 49% +2  1 - 3 -10 -6 F F C- -4 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 337 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 60% +9  2 - 3 +10 +8 A- D C+ -1 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 257 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 37% -2  2 - 4 -20 -1 F D B+ -20 F F F
 Wed, Nov 26 51 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 3% +6  2 - 5 +8 +19 A+ A+ F -11 F B- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 226 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 23% +12  2 - 6 -11 -3 B- F F -9 C D- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 50 @Missouri L 77 - 85 3% -11  2 - 7 +6 +19 A+ A+ A+ -14 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 49 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 3% -21  2 - 8 -23 -10 F F A+ -14 F C F
 Mon, Dec 22 92 @Memphis L 67 - 88 6% -13  2 - 9 -12 -1 F B D -11 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 76 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 5% -18  2 - 10 -27 -10 F F F -17 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 88% +12  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +6 C+ F F -8 F C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 334 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 47% -6  3 - 11 1 - 1 -19 -3 D- F C -15 F F B
 Sat, Jan 10 325 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 67% -7  3 - 12 1 - 2 -24 -21 F C- F -3 A D- C
 Mon, Jan 12 347 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 74% +6  4 - 12 2 - 2 -0 -0 C- D F -0 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 19 301 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 47% -0  4 - 13 2 - 3 -12 -8 D A+ F -4 C C- C
 Sat, Jan 24 317 @Prairie View L 78 - 80 43%
 Mon, Jan 26 335 @Texas Southern L 77 - 78 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 269 Bethune-Cookman W 78 - 77 52%
 Mon, Feb 2 313 Florida A&M W 77 - 73 63%
 Sat, Feb 7 287 @Grambling St. L 72 - 76 34%
 Mon, Feb 9 246 @Southern L 73 - 80 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 78 69%
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 62 96%
 Thu, Feb 19 313 @Florida A&M L 74 - 76 41%
 Thu, Feb 19 269 @Bethune-Cookman L 74 - 80 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @Alabama A&M L 71 - 75 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 246 Southern L 76 - 77 46%
 Thu, Mar 5 287 Grambling St. W 75 - 73 56%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 9 -9 -4 D D+ C- -5 D- F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.2 1st
2nd 0.4 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.8 2.9 0.3 6.0 3rd
4th 1.1 5.5 0.9 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.3 5.7 3.6 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 7.5 0.6 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.5 6.9 3.7 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.2 4.0 7.4 0.6 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.6 2.9 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 5.7 5.0 0.2 13.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.1 11.8 17.8 20.0 18.7 12.9 6.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 82.0% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 37.8% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
11-7 5.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.8% 19.3% 19.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
12-6 2.8% 21.6% 21.6% 15.9 0.0 0.6 2.2
11-7 6.7% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1 5.6
10-8 12.9% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 1.6 11.3
9-9 18.7% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 1.9 16.8
8-10 20.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.8 19.2
7-11 17.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.7
6-12 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-13 6.1% 6.1
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 16.0 93.7 0.0%