Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#268
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#250
Pace69.1#194
Improvement+0.5#152

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#224
First Shot+0.9#156
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#332
Layup/Dunks-0.7#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#136
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement+1.5#65

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#308
First Shot-1.8#228
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#307
Layups/Dunks+2.1#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#332
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement-1.1#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 14.8% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 31.7% 47.0% 24.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.1% 82.7% 74.4%
Conference Champion 12.3% 16.2% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four5.9% 6.1% 5.7%
First Round8.3% 11.7% 6.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 32 - 10
Quad 412 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 100 @Florida St. L 64-101 10%     0 - 1 -29.0 -10.7 -14.4
  Tue, Nov 11 112 @UAB W 77-74 12%     1 - 1 +9.7 +2.9 +6.7
  Mon, Nov 17 64 @Colorado L 66-94 6%     1 - 2 -16.2 -4.2 -11.6
  Wed, Nov 19 332 @Air Force L 64-66 54%     1 - 3 -9.1 -7.7 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 21 354 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 75%     2 - 3 +7.9 +6.9 -1.7
  Sun, Nov 23 206 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 38%     2 - 4 -17.8 +0.1 -18.7
  Wed, Nov 26 103 @New Mexico L 87-93 11%     2 - 5 +1.6 +15.7 -14.0
  Sun, Dec 7 239 @Tennessee Martin L 69-73 33%    
  Thu, Dec 11 37 @Missouri L 66-88 2%    
  Wed, Dec 17 68 @Cincinnati L 65-82 5%    
  Mon, Dec 22 75 @Memphis L 67-84 6%    
  Mon, Dec 29 81 @Mississippi St. L 68-84 7%    
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79-66 89%    
  Mon, Jan 5 358 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-75 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 312 Jackson St. W 75-70 69%    
  Mon, Jan 12 333 Alcorn St. W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 266 Alabama A&M W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 322 @Prairie View W 76-75 50%    
  Mon, Jan 26 296 @Texas Southern L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 218 Bethune-Cookman W 75-74 52%    
  Mon, Feb 2 345 Florida A&M W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 284 @Grambling St. L 70-72 41%    
  Mon, Feb 9 201 @Southern L 74-80 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-72 83%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 82-63 95%    
  Thu, Feb 19 345 @Florida A&M W 76-74 59%    
  Thu, Feb 19 218 @Bethune-Cookman L 72-77 31%    
  Sat, Feb 28 266 @Alabama A&M L 70-73 40%    
  Tue, Mar 3 201 Southern L 76-77 49%    
  Thu, Mar 5 284 Grambling St. W 73-69 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.1 5.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.5 6.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.7 5.7 1.7 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.9 1.8 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.9 2.3 0.2 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.4 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.4 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.1 9.9 12.3 14.3 14.6 13.7 10.6 6.5 3.6 1.2 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.8% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 84.9% 3.1    2.4 0.7 0.0
14-4 60.0% 3.9    2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.2% 3.0    0.9 1.2 0.8 0.1
12-6 6.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 6.8 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 57.5% 57.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.2% 38.7% 38.7% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8
15-3 3.6% 31.5% 31.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 2.5
14-4 6.5% 25.8% 25.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 4.8
13-5 10.6% 20.1% 20.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 8.5
12-6 13.7% 13.6% 13.6% 15.9 0.2 1.7 11.9
11-7 14.6% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6 13.0
10-8 14.3% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 1.1 13.2
9-9 12.3% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.7 11.6
8-10 9.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 9.5
7-11 6.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.1
6-12 3.9% 3.9
5-13 1.8% 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 8.8 88.7 0.0%