Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#80
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#96
Pace70.0#172
Improvement+1.2#106

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#91
First Shot+4.8#65
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#263
Layup/Dunks+0.5#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#148
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement+0.6#131

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#79
First Shot+3.6#70
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#208
Layups/Dunks+6.3#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
Freethrows+2.4#41
Improvement+0.6#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 5.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.4% 5.6% 1.3%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 18.4% 19.3% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 10.0% 5.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.8% 29.1% 40.0%
First Four2.1% 2.2% 0.7%
First Round4.3% 4.5% 1.0%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 12
Quad 24 - 66 - 18
Quad 33 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 244 North Alabama W 86-62 91%     1 - 0 +16.2 +8.0 +7.6
  Mon, Nov 10 3 Iowa St. L 80-96 8%     1 - 1 +6.2 +12.7 -5.3
  Sat, Nov 15 266 SE Louisiana W 75-68 92%     2 - 1 -1.7 -3.7 +1.6
  Thu, Nov 20 58 Kansas St. L 77-98 42%     2 - 2 -12.1 +1.6 -12.2
  Fri, Nov 21 66 New Mexico L 78-80 45%     2 - 3 +6.2 +7.0 -0.7
  Mon, Nov 24 241 New Orleans W 81-78 OT 91%     3 - 3 -4.6 -4.7 -0.2
  Fri, Nov 28 42 SMU L 81-87 OT 42%     3 - 4 +3.1 +0.7 +3.2
  Wed, Dec 3 129 @Georgia Tech W 85-73 57%     4 - 4 +17.0 +11.1 +5.1
  Sun, Dec 7 95 San Francisco L 62-65 54%     4 - 5 +2.8 -0.7 +3.1
  Sat, Dec 13 111 Utah W 82-74 63%     5 - 5 +11.6 +8.9 +2.7
  Tue, Dec 16 206 LIU Brooklyn W 87-83 88%     6 - 5 -1.9 +8.7 -10.7
  Sat, Dec 20 72 Memphis W 71-66 59%     7 - 5 +9.7 +2.7 +7.0
  Mon, Dec 29 281 Alabama St. W 84-68 94%    
  Sat, Jan 3 41 @Texas L 73-81 22%    
  Wed, Jan 7 45 Oklahoma L 77-78 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 20 @Kentucky L 70-82 13%    
  Tue, Jan 13 15 Alabama L 81-89 24%    
  Sat, Jan 17 63 Mississippi W 73-72 56%    
  Wed, Jan 21 43 @Texas A&M L 76-84 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 9 Vanderbilt L 73-83 17%    
  Wed, Jan 28 39 @LSU L 72-80 22%    
  Sat, Jan 31 60 @Missouri L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Feb 7 23 Arkansas L 77-82 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 14 Tennessee L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 63 @Mississippi L 70-75 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 34 Auburn L 76-79 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 90 @South Carolina L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Feb 25 15 @Alabama L 78-92 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 60 Missouri W 78-77 54%    
  Tue, Mar 3 12 @Florida L 69-83 10%    
  Sat, Mar 7 22 Georgia L 81-87 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.6 2.5 1.0 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.7 0.2 5.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.1 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 5.0 3.3 0.2 9.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.3 0.9 0.0 12.0 13th
14th 0.1 1.0 5.0 6.6 2.1 0.1 14.9 14th
15th 0.1 1.5 5.7 7.1 3.1 0.2 0.0 17.8 15th
16th 0.7 3.2 6.1 5.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 18.7 16th
Total 0.7 3.4 7.7 12.6 15.5 16.4 14.8 11.5 7.9 5.1 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 27.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 93.1% 93.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.1%
12-6 0.5% 93.6% 3.2% 90.4% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.4%
11-7 1.2% 81.1% 1.7% 79.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 80.7%
10-8 2.7% 59.6% 0.3% 59.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 59.5%
9-9 5.1% 32.5% 0.3% 32.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.4 32.3%
8-10 7.9% 5.6% 0.4% 5.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.4 5.2%
7-11 11.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.4 0.5%
6-12 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 14.8
5-13 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 16.4
4-14 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 15.5
3-15 12.6% 12.6
2-16 7.7% 7.7
1-17 3.4% 3.4
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 5.5% 0.1% 5.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.5 5.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%