Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #76
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #81
Pace 70.0 #155
Improvement +2.2 #84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #95 C C+ B+ D+ C-
Defense #65 A B D- B- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.28 #65 +1.1 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #143 0.84 #66 +1.6 #97
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.93 #284 -1.8 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #155 +0.9 #153
Freethrows 16.7 #241 70% #255 11.7 #250
Second Chance 32.2% #138 1.10 #118 0.35 #107
Turnovers 14.3% #57
Total Offense +3.3 #95

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #350 1.05 #55 +7.1 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #10 0.76 #184 -3.6 #358
Three Pointers 41% #182 0.84 #14 +3.5 #52
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #17 +7.0 #17
Freethrows 15.5 #66 75% #317 11.6 #104
Second Chance 26.5% #47 1.05 #196 0.28 #90
Turnovers 14.0% #321
Total Defense +4.4 #65

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #236 -3.7% #8
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #138 -10.4% #29
Possession Length 16.4 #89 17.6 #234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #165 0.14 #65
Improvement +0.0 #177 +2.2 #58

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 7.0% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 6.9% 1.8%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.0
.500 or above 13.9% 26.1% 9.4%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 10.3% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.2% 17.7% 38.8%
First Four1.5% 3.2% 0.9%
First Round2.5% 5.5% 1.4%
Second Round0.9% 1.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Home) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 63 - 13
Quad 24 - 57 - 17
Quad 32 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 328 North Alabama W 86 - 62 96% +5  1 - 0 +11 +3 C F A +7 B+ C+ B-
 Mon, Nov 10 8 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 12% -11  1 - 1 +4 +12 A+ A+ F -6 B D+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 272 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 93% +5  2 - 1 -2 -3 D+ D+ D +1 A B- F
 Thu, Nov 20 85 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 52% -8  2 - 2 -14 +2 C+ F C- -14 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 51 New Mexico L 78 - 80 38% -2  2 - 3 +9 +9 B+ C- A+ -1 A- C+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 235 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 91% -4  3 - 3 -4 -7 D- A- F +2 A A- B-
 Fri, Nov 28 29 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 36% +1  3 - 4 +5 +1 D- D+ A+ +5 A+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 3 113 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 55% +8  4 - 4 +18 +12 B A+ D +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 101 San Francisco L 62 - 65 61% -5  4 - 5 +2 -0 D C A+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 104 Utah W 82 - 74 62% -6  5 - 5 +13 +9 A+ F A +3 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 222 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 90% +3  6 - 5 -3 +9 C A- A+ -12 C- B F
 Sat, Dec 20 92 Memphis W 71 - 66 68% +4  7 - 5 +8 +3 B D C- +5 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 311 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 95% +18  8 - 5 +26 +16 B A+ B +11 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 38 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 21% +1  9 - 5 1 - 0 +19 +18 B A+ B- +1 B+ B D+
 Wed, Jan 7 57 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 53% +5  10 - 5 2 - 0 +26 +5 F A+ B +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 25 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 15% -4  10 - 6 2 - 1 -5 +5 A- B F -11 C- F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 17 Alabama L 82 - 97 25% -5  10 - 7 2 - 2 -0 +5 D+ C A+ -4 A B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 62 Mississippi L 67 - 68 57% +2  10 - 8 2 - 3 +5 -3 F C A+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 34 @Texas A&M L 68 - 88 19% -10  10 - 9 2 - 4 -3 +3 B+ F B -6 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 21 Vanderbilt L 75 - 82 27%
 Wed, Jan 28 43 @LSU L 72 - 79 25%
 Sat, Jan 31 50 @Missouri L 72 - 78 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 20 Arkansas L 78 - 85 27%
 Wed, Feb 11 22 Tennessee L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 62 @Mississippi L 70 - 74 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 27 Auburn L 75 - 79 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 69 @South Carolina L 70 - 73 37%
 Wed, Feb 25 17 @Alabama L 79 - 92 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 50 Missouri L 75 - 76 50%
 Tue, Mar 3 10 @Florida L 69 - 85 7%
 Sat, Mar 7 24 Georgia L 80 - 85 31%
Totals 13 - 18 5 - 13 +8 +3 C C+ B+ +4 A B D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.3 2.9 0.2 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 5.3 1.3 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.5 5.4 4.3 0.2 10.5 12th
13th 0.3 4.4 8.2 1.4 0.0 14.2 13th
14th 0.2 3.3 9.5 3.8 0.1 16.9 14th
15th 0.3 2.8 8.9 6.5 0.7 19.2 15th
16th 2.8 7.5 6.0 1.2 0.0 17.5 16th
Total 3.0 10.5 18.5 22.1 19.6 13.9 7.7 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 10.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 86.9% 86.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.9%
10-8 1.2% 75.2% 0.4% 74.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 75.1%
9-9 3.2% 43.8% 0.8% 43.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.8 43.4%
8-10 7.7% 6.5% 0.1% 6.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 7.2 6.3%
7-11 13.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.8%
6-12 19.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 19.6 0.0%
5-13 22.1% 22.1
4-14 18.5% 18.5
3-15 10.5% 10.5
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 0.1% 3.2% 10.0 96.8 3.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%