Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Florida 99.9%   3   14 - 5 5 - 1 +20.4      +10.5 11 +9.9 9 73.2 70 +17.7 19 +22.7 1
17 Alabama 99.2%   4   13 - 5 3 - 2 +17.8      +12.9 2 +5.0 53 82.8 4 +18.3 16 +15.5 6
20 Arkansas 98.8%   5   14 - 5 4 - 2 +17.2      +11.5 6 +5.7 46 76.3 29 +18.1 17 +17.9 3
21 Vanderbilt 99.6%   5   16 - 3 3 - 3 +17.2      +10.7 10 +6.5 35 73.8 64 +19.3 15 +14.8 7
22 Tennessee 92.1%   6   12 - 6 2 - 3 +16.5      +7.6 42 +9.0 14 66.7 239 +14.3 36 +12.7 9
24 Georgia 97.4%   6   16 - 3 4 - 2 +15.9      +8.8 27 +7.1 26 84.1 2 +17.1 22 +17.5 5
25 Kentucky 92.0%   6   13 - 6 4 - 2 +15.9      +8.8 25 +7.1 27 70.0 153 +15.2 29 +17.7 4
27 Auburn 81.7%   7   12 - 7 3 - 3 +14.9      +10.2 14 +4.7 56 69.6 164 +15.0 33 +12.5 11
34 Texas A&M 86.9%   7   15 - 4 5 - 1 +13.9      +7.7 41 +6.2 41 77.1 23 +14.6 34 +22.6 2
38 Texas 47.2%   10   10 - 8 2 - 4 +13.1      +10.1 15 +3.0 93 68.2 206 +9.5 61 +10.5 12
43 LSU 35.7%   13 - 6 1 - 5 +11.9      +7.3 45 +4.6 57 69.0 174 +10.9 54 +3.5 15
50 Missouri 45.7%   11   13 - 6 3 - 3 +10.8      +7.3 43 +3.5 82 67.6 223 +12.3 45 +14.6 8
57 Oklahoma 11.1%   11 - 8 1 - 5 +9.9      +7.3 44 +2.6 102 68.7 187 +8.1 77 +3.4 16
62 Mississippi 9.3%   11 - 8 3 - 3 +8.9      +4.4 76 +4.5 63 65.2 278 +8.4 72 +12.7 10
69 South Carolina 3.0%   11 - 8 2 - 4 +8.1      +4.0 82 +4.1 72 65.1 280 +5.9 90 +10.5 13
76 Mississippi St. 3.2%   10 - 9 2 - 4 +7.6      +3.3 95 +4.4 65 70.0 155 +6.9 81 +9.0 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 24 Georgia 74 50 Missouri 72   
Tue, Jan 20 27 Auburn 78 62 Mississippi 66   
Tue, Jan 20 10 Florida 79 43 LSU 61   
Tue, Jan 20 57 Oklahoma 76 69 South Carolina 85   
Tue, Jan 20 20 Arkansas 93 21 Vanderbilt 68   
Wed, Jan 21 25 Kentucky 85 38 Texas 80   
Wed, Jan 21 76 Mississippi St. 68 34 Texas A&M 88   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 17 Alabama 85 22 Tennessee 81 66%   
Sat, Jan 24 27 Auburn 76 10 Florida 84 79%   
Sat, Jan 24 24 Georgia 85 38 Texas 86 51%   
Sat, Jan 24 50 Missouri 79 57 Oklahoma 75 65%   
Sat, Jan 24 20 Arkansas 87 43 LSU 78 79%   
Sat, Jan 24 25 Kentucky 78 62 Mississippi 68 83%   
Sat, Jan 24 69 South Carolina 72 34 Texas A&M 81 80%   
Sat, Jan 24 76 Mississippi St. 76 21 Vanderbilt 82 74%   
Tue, Jan 27 24 Georgia 81 22 Tennessee 79 59%   
Tue, Jan 27 25 Kentucky 78 21 Vanderbilt 83 66%   
Tue, Jan 27 17 Alabama 91 50 Missouri 81 83%   
Tue, Jan 27 20 Arkansas 85 57 Oklahoma 81 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Florida 1.8 60.6 19.2 8.8 5.1 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama 3.7 21.0 21.8 14.9 12.1 8.6 7.2 5.0 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 3.6 20.8 21.2 16.0 13.1 9.4 6.3 4.8 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 5.3 5.1 11.8 14.3 14.7 12.3 10.9 9.1 7.4 5.4 4.0 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 6.6 2.3 6.6 8.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.3 10.5 8.9 7.0 5.0 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2
Georgia 5.1 7.8 12.9 13.8 13.5 12.5 10.7 9.2 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 5.8 5.2 8.9 10.7 11.7 11.4 11.9 11.0 9.7 7.6 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Auburn 7.7 1.2 3.3 5.2 7.1 8.4 10.1 12.2 12.5 11.6 9.9 7.6 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.2
Texas A&M 4.9 8.3 13.1 13.6 13.6 12.5 11.4 9.4 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas 9.6 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.5 8.5 10.3 11.3 13.1 12.1 9.9 7.5 5.3 3.4 1.6
LSU 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.7 6.5 9.2 11.8 14.0 13.8 12.8 10.7 8.9
Missouri 9.4 0.3 1.3 2.1 3.7 4.8 6.2 8.4 10.4 11.7 13.1 12.6 9.8 7.1 4.4 2.8 1.4
Oklahoma 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.9 7.1 9.4 12.8 16.5 19.7 21.5
Mississippi 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.5 10.6 13.5 15.5 14.8 11.9 7.8 3.9
South Carolina 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.7 6.0 8.6 11.4 14.9 18.1 18.0 14.6
Mississippi St. 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 5.4 8.0 10.5 14.2 16.9 19.2 17.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida 14 - 4 23 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 6.1 12.4 18.9 23.1 20.6 12.4 3.6
Alabama 12 - 7 22 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.0 6.7 11.3 16.5 19.7 18.0 13.3 7.0 2.4 0.5
Arkansas 12 - 7 22 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.3 10.9 17.4 19.7 18.6 13.5 7.0 2.4 0.5
Vanderbilt 11 - 7 24 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.2 7.4 13.1 18.5 21.2 18.4 11.2 4.9 0.9
Tennessee 10 - 8 20 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.2 7.8 12.8 17.7 20.0 17.1 12.0 5.8 1.8 0.3
Georgia 11 - 7 23 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 7.3 12.2 17.9 20.6 17.7 12.4 5.8 1.8 0.3
Kentucky 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.9 10.1 16.8 20.3 18.9 14.7 8.1 3.3 0.8 0.1
Auburn 9 - 9 18 - 13 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.5 11.2 17.5 20.9 19.1 13.0 7.4 2.3 0.6 0.1
Texas A&M 11 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.2 12.9 18.5 20.5 18.3 12.3 5.9 2.0 0.4 0.0
Texas 8 - 10 16 - 14 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.5 12.8 18.3 20.1 17.7 12.6 6.0 2.3 0.6 0.0
LSU 6 - 12 18 - 13 0.2 1.3 4.8 10.2 16.7 20.2 19.2 13.7 8.6 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
Missouri 8 - 10 18 - 13 0.3 1.9 5.7 12.4 18.7 20.4 17.9 12.3 6.7 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma 5 - 13 15 - 16 1.2 5.4 11.6 18.5 20.9 18.5 12.5 6.9 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 7 - 11 15 - 16 1.5 6.7 15.8 22.4 22.0 16.0 9.6 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
South Carolina 6 - 12 15 - 16 2.1 8.4 17.2 23.0 21.8 14.6 8.2 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1
Mississippi St. 5 - 13 13 - 18 3.0 10.5 18.5 22.1 19.6 13.9 7.7 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida 60.6% 42.9 13.0 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama 21.0% 10.8 7.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 20.8% 10.8 6.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 5.1% 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 2.3% 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 7.8% 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 5.2% 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Auburn 1.2% 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 8.3% 3.3 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma
Mississippi 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0
Mississippi St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida 99.9% 27.9% 72.1% 3   11.3 20.5 27.3 20.8 12.3 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.9%
Alabama 99.2% 14.0% 85.2% 4   2.6 8.2 19.2 22.6 21.4 13.5 6.2 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.8 99.1%
Arkansas 98.8% 12.4% 86.4% 5   1.4 4.5 13.6 20.5 23.8 17.5 9.0 4.3 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.2 98.7%
Vanderbilt 99.6% 10.6% 89.0% 5   1.7 5.8 16.2 22.1 22.8 16.4 8.0 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.4 99.5%
Tennessee 92.1% 7.7% 84.4% 6   0.3 1.3 5.0 9.3 15.4 17.9 16.4 10.4 6.4 4.8 4.6 0.1 7.9 91.4%
Georgia 97.4% 8.0% 89.4% 6   0.4 1.5 6.4 12.5 19.8 21.2 16.6 9.6 5.3 3.0 1.1 0.0 2.6 97.2%
Kentucky 92.0% 7.2% 84.8% 6   0.2 0.9 4.7 10.2 17.2 18.7 15.5 9.6 5.9 4.9 4.0 0.1 8.0 91.3%
Auburn 81.7% 4.3% 77.4% 7   0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 10.0 14.5 14.6 11.0 8.6 8.0 8.3 0.3 18.3 80.9%
Texas A&M 86.9% 4.2% 82.7% 7   0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 7.4 13.3 18.5 17.7 13.5 8.7 4.1 0.0 13.1 86.3%
Texas 47.2% 1.7% 45.5% 10   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.8 7.0 8.7 8.0 8.5 8.6 0.4 0.0 52.8 46.3%
LSU 35.7% 0.8% 34.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.4 6.8 8.7 9.4 0.2 64.3 35.2%
Missouri 45.7% 0.7% 44.9% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.8 9.4 10.6 9.7 8.3 0.2 54.3 45.3%
Oklahoma 11.1% 0.2% 11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.9 0.2 88.9 11.0%
Mississippi 9.3% 0.2% 9.1% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 3.5 0.1 90.7 9.1%
South Carolina 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.1 97.0 2.9%
Mississippi St. 3.2% 0.1% 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 96.8 3.2%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.0 0.0 0.4 4.6 23.7 40.2 25.7 5.1 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 9.7 0.0 0.9 8.4 30.9 39.3 18.0 2.4 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.7 8.1 21.4 31.3 25.4 10.0 1.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.5% 3.3 0.5 5.3 20.7 32.9 26.6 11.0 2.6 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 82.3% 1.4 17.7 40.0 30.1 10.3 1.8 0.1 0.0
Final Four 49.2% 0.6 50.8 39.6 9.0 0.7 0.0
Final Game 22.9% 0.2 77.1 21.6 1.3
Champion 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida 99.9% 0.1% 99.9% 94.7% 64.3% 35.2% 18.3% 8.8% 4.2%
Alabama 99.2% 0.6% 99.0% 85.4% 46.8% 20.2% 9.0% 3.6% 1.4%
Arkansas 98.8% 0.9% 98.5% 81.1% 40.8% 17.1% 7.1% 2.8% 0.9%
Vanderbilt 99.6% 0.3% 99.4% 83.2% 42.4% 17.5% 7.5% 2.9% 1.0%
Tennessee 92.1% 5.1% 90.0% 65.5% 28.4% 11.7% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6%
Georgia 97.4% 1.3% 96.8% 70.8% 29.8% 11.1% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5%
Kentucky 92.0% 4.4% 90.2% 64.8% 26.2% 9.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Auburn 81.7% 9.2% 77.9% 50.1% 17.8% 6.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Texas A&M 86.9% 4.5% 85.0% 48.9% 14.4% 5.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Texas 47.2% 9.4% 43.0% 23.3% 6.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
LSU 35.7% 10.1% 31.0% 14.4% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Missouri 45.7% 9.1% 41.0% 17.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma 11.1% 4.3% 8.8% 3.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 9.3% 3.8% 7.3% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 3.0% 1.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi St. 3.2% 1.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%