Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Auburn 100.0%   1   10 - 1 0 - 0 26 - 5 14 - 4 +22.8      +15.4 1 +7.4 14 70.7 125 +26.4 1 0.0 1
3 Tennessee 99.9%   1   11 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 5 13 - 5 +20.5      +8.3 14 +12.2 1 66.1 258 +25.3 2 0.0 1
7 Florida 99.1%   2   11 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 11 - 7 +18.1      +11.2 7 +6.9 20 75.3 41 +22.0 5 0.0 1
8 Alabama 97.9%   2   9 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +17.4      +12.2 4 +5.2 48 80.2 8 +19.9 10 0.0 1
9 Kentucky 98.4%   2   10 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +17.3      +11.6 5 +5.7 38 78.9 13 +23.3 3 0.0 1
25 Texas A&M 87.7%   5   10 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 9 +13.9      +5.8 44 +8.1 10 66.0 260 +16.8 19 0.0 1
27 Mississippi 81.1%   6   10 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 8 - 10 +13.3      +8.0 22 +5.3 47 67.2 226 +17.6 16 0.0 1
28 Mississippi St. 83.2%   6   10 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 9 +13.3      +8.2 18 +5.1 52 68.0 211 +17.2 17 0.0 1
29 Arkansas 73.9%   7   9 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 9 +12.8      +6.2 42 +6.7 25 74.6 52 +14.6 33 0.0 1
31 Texas 66.3%   8   10 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 8 - 10 +12.5      +5.7 47 +6.8 23 68.0 208 +12.0 47 0.0 1
32 Georgia 72.7%   8   10 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 8 - 10 +12.5      +5.2 51 +7.2 17 69.4 164 +18.2 14 0.0 1
34 Oklahoma 83.5%   7   11 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 8 - 10 +12.3      +7.9 23 +4.4 71 67.9 215 +23.1 4 0.0 1
50 Vanderbilt 45.2%   11   10 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +10.3      +7.0 35 +3.3 91 73.9 61 +14.7 32 0.0 1
55 Missouri 45.2%   11   10 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +9.8      +7.4 31 +2.4 108 69.2 173 +15.7 25 0.0 1
56 LSU 34.5%   9 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 6 - 12 +9.6      +4.4 68 +5.2 49 73.0 74 +12.0 48 0.0 1
69 South Carolina 17.5%   8 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 16 5 - 13 +8.3      +4.4 67 +3.9 78 65.1 278 +7.4 87 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Auburn 2.1 54.5 21.0 10.2 5.7 3.3 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 3.2 27.3 24.0 15.6 10.5 7.4 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Florida 4.5 13.1 16.6 16.0 13.1 10.3 8.2 6.2 4.8 3.8 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
Alabama 5.4 9.3 12.3 13.5 12.6 10.8 9.3 7.9 6.2 4.9 4.0 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3
Kentucky 5.4 9.7 12.5 13.4 12.1 10.6 9.3 7.5 6.2 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4
Texas A&M 7.6 3.1 5.6 7.7 8.8 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.4 5.3 4.6 3.8 2.7 1.6
Mississippi 8.5 2.1 3.6 5.3 6.8 7.8 8.4 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.0 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.4 3.9 2.9
Mississippi St. 8.2 1.7 4.1 6.2 7.5 8.1 8.7 9.0 8.6 8.7 7.9 7.3 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.4 2.3
Arkansas 8.3 1.8 4.0 6.1 7.4 8.3 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.8 4.8 3.6 2.6
Texas 9.1 1.4 3.0 4.5 5.7 6.7 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.4 5.4 3.8
Georgia 9.4 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.1 6.0 7.0 7.7 8.5 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.4 7.8 6.9 5.4 3.7
Oklahoma 9.0 1.1 2.8 4.6 5.8 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.1 4.8 3.5
Vanderbilt 11.2 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.1 4.1 5.2 5.9 7.0 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.7 10.9 11.2 10.3
Missouri 11.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.5 5.6 6.2 7.3 7.9 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.7 10.5 9.2
LSU 11.6 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.5 5.4 6.5 7.1 8.5 9.4 10.5 12.4 13.1 12.4
South Carolina 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 3.0 3.5 4.8 5.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 13.2 16.3 21.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Auburn 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.5 9.7 14.0 17.4 18.3 16.2 10.0 3.2
Tennessee 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.8 11.4 14.9 16.9 15.8 12.5 7.8 3.4 0.7
Florida 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 6.1 9.2 12.5 15.0 15.8 14.4 10.7 6.6 3.0 0.9 0.1
Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.4 11.7 14.0 15.1 14.3 11.4 7.9 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.4 11.4 13.9 14.9 13.9 11.5 7.8 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
Texas A&M 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.4 11.0 13.1 14.3 13.7 11.8 8.7 6.0 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mississippi 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.9 6.7 10.0 12.6 14.5 14.1 12.5 9.7 6.6 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.8 9.0 12.4 14.3 14.7 13.1 10.6 7.3 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 6.2 9.3 12.1 14.3 14.3 13.2 10.4 7.2 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 5.2 8.2 11.4 13.5 14.4 13.5 11.1 8.3 5.3 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.3 8.9 12.4 14.6 15.4 13.3 10.7 7.8 4.4 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma 8 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.6 7.9 11.1 13.8 14.8 13.9 11.8 8.4 5.6 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.3 6.8 10.6 13.6 15.3 15.0 12.3 9.3 6.1 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.1 9.8 13.3 15.0 14.9 13.2 9.7 6.7 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
LSU 6 - 12 0.3 1.4 4.2 8.2 11.9 14.7 15.3 13.9 11.2 8.4 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 5 - 13 0.7 3.5 7.3 11.6 15.2 16.1 14.7 11.6 8.4 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Auburn 54.5% 39.7 11.6 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 27.3% 16.6 8.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida 13.1% 6.9 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama 9.3% 4.8 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 9.7% 4.9 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M 3.1% 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 2.1% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 1.7% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 1.8% 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas 1.4% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
LSU 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Auburn 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1   77.0 18.7 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Tennessee 99.9% 20.7% 79.3% 1   51.9 29.8 10.7 4.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Florida 99.1% 11.3% 87.8% 2   22.9 26.7 19.8 12.1 7.0 4.3 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.9 99.0%
Alabama 97.9% 9.1% 88.8% 2   21.4 26.1 20.4 12.0 6.8 3.9 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 2.1 97.7%
Kentucky 98.4% 8.8% 89.6% 2   24.3 27.4 19.2 11.0 6.2 3.6 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.6 98.3%
Texas A&M 87.7% 2.8% 84.9% 5   2.1 5.6 10.8 12.8 13.0 11.8 8.8 6.5 5.6 4.8 5.3 0.7 12.3 87.4%
Mississippi 81.1% 2.2% 78.9% 6   1.9 4.9 9.7 11.4 11.9 10.2 8.2 6.4 5.3 4.8 5.6 0.8 18.9 80.7%
Mississippi St. 83.2% 2.1% 81.1% 6   1.8 5.3 9.9 11.6 12.6 11.1 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.3 4.9 0.6 16.8 82.8%
Arkansas 73.9% 1.9% 72.0% 7   0.7 2.2 5.2 7.5 9.6 10.3 10.1 8.7 7.2 5.8 5.8 0.7 0.0 26.1 73.4%
Texas 66.3% 1.4% 65.0% 8   0.5 1.4 3.6 5.8 8.1 8.9 9.8 8.9 6.9 5.8 5.9 0.7 0.0 33.7 65.9%
Georgia 72.7% 1.4% 71.3% 8   0.8 2.5 5.8 8.0 9.3 9.3 7.8 7.1 6.9 6.7 7.7 1.0 27.3 72.4%
Oklahoma 83.5% 1.4% 82.1% 7   1.1 3.7 8.1 10.3 12.0 11.2 8.5 7.0 7.4 7.0 6.6 0.7 0.0 16.5 83.3%
Vanderbilt 45.2% 0.6% 44.6% 11   0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.8 4.9 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.2 7.2 0.9 54.8 44.9%
Missouri 45.2% 0.4% 44.8% 11   0.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 4.0 5.2 6.0 6.4 6.4 5.8 6.7 0.9 54.8 45.0%
LSU 34.5% 0.3% 34.2% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.0 3.3 4.7 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.7 0.7 0.0 65.5 34.3%
South Carolina 17.5% 0.1% 17.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.6 0.4 0.0 82.5 17.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Auburn 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.0% 81.8% 61.5% 43.5% 29.3% 19.0%
Tennessee 99.9% 0.1% 99.9% 97.1% 74.1% 50.2% 30.7% 17.8% 10.0%
Florida 99.1% 0.6% 98.9% 90.3% 60.6% 34.3% 18.3% 9.4% 4.6%
Alabama 97.9% 1.2% 97.4% 88.1% 57.8% 32.1% 16.5% 7.8% 3.5%
Kentucky 98.4% 1.4% 97.8% 88.6% 57.6% 31.7% 15.7% 7.5% 3.6%
Texas A&M 87.7% 5.9% 85.0% 61.0% 29.2% 11.9% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7%
Mississippi 81.1% 6.3% 78.0% 54.5% 25.8% 10.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Mississippi St. 83.2% 5.3% 80.6% 56.1% 25.8% 10.6% 4.2% 1.6% 0.5%
Arkansas 73.9% 6.4% 70.7% 45.5% 19.2% 7.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Texas 66.3% 6.4% 63.4% 39.7% 15.9% 6.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Georgia 72.7% 8.5% 68.7% 44.1% 18.5% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Oklahoma 83.5% 7.1% 79.7% 50.9% 21.3% 7.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Vanderbilt 45.2% 7.8% 41.1% 21.6% 7.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Missouri 45.2% 7.4% 41.2% 21.1% 6.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
LSU 34.5% 6.3% 31.3% 15.7% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
South Carolina 17.5% 3.9% 15.5% 7.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 8.4 26.7 36.7 21.5 5.1
1st Round 100.0% 11.5 0.0 0.2 2.5 14.5 33.0 33.1 14.2 2.3
2nd Round 100.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 11.5 24.8 30.7 20.7 7.3 1.3 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 8.5 21.6 30.8 23.8 10.6 2.3 0.3
Elite Eight 98.7% 2.8 1.3 10.3 28.5 34.7 19.9 4.8 0.5 0.0
Final Four 88.4% 1.5 11.6 39.1 37.5 11.1 0.8
Final Game 66.7% 0.8 33.3 52.0 14.6
Champion 44.0% 0.4 56.0 44.0