Missouri
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#15
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#12
Pace69.1#153
Improvement+9.0#2

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#7
First Shot+10.0#5
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#67
Layup/Dunks+5.9#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#228
Freethrows+4.5#5
Improvement+5.1#15

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#46
First Shot+6.4#28
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#256
Layups/Dunks+5.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#146
Freethrows+2.0#60
Improvement+3.9#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 5.3% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 19.2% 27.2% 8.6%
Top 4 Seed 70.8% 81.3% 56.8%
Top 6 Seed 95.7% 98.4% 92.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.8 3.4 4.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round89.9% 92.7% 86.1%
Sweet Sixteen54.6% 58.4% 49.6%
Elite Eight25.7% 28.7% 21.6%
Final Four11.4% 13.1% 9.2%
Championship Game4.9% 5.9% 3.5%
National Champion2.0% 2.3% 1.5%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 8
Quad 24 - 013 - 8
Quad 34 - 016 - 9
Quad 48 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 47   @ Memphis L 75-83 65%     0 - 1 +5.7 +6.1 -0.1
  Nov 08, 2024 305   Howard W 77-62 99%     1 - 1 +4.1 -4.0 +8.2
  Nov 11, 2024 265   Eastern Washington W 84-77 98%     2 - 1 -1.0 +9.6 -10.4
  Nov 14, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 111-39 99.9%    3 - 1 +41.1 +27.7 +15.7
  Nov 22, 2024 277   Pacific W 91-56 98%     4 - 1 +26.0 +19.3 +8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 112-63 99.8%    5 - 1 +26.7 +16.2 +5.5
  Nov 27, 2024 335   Lindenwood W 81-61 99%     6 - 1 +6.5 +1.5 +4.3
  Dec 03, 2024 112   California W 98-93 93%     7 - 1 +5.7 +15.6 -10.2
  Dec 08, 2024 19   Kansas W 76-67 65%     8 - 1 +22.6 +9.1 +13.1
  Dec 14, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn W 88-61 99%     9 - 1 +15.0 +19.6 -3.0
  Dec 17, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. W 83-72 94%     10 - 1 +10.5 +21.3 -9.2
  Dec 22, 2024 18   Illinois L 77-80 56%     10 - 2 +13.2 +6.4 +6.9
  Dec 30, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 82-65 99%     11 - 2 +5.7 +2.0 +3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 68-84 21%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +10.1 +5.5 +4.7
  Jan 07, 2025 72   LSU W 83-67 87%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +21.3 +16.3 +5.5
  Jan 11, 2025 53   Vanderbilt W 75-66 82%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +17.1 +8.8 +8.8
  Jan 14, 2025 4   @ Florida W 83-82 25%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +25.8 +22.6 +3.2
  Jan 18, 2025 35   Arkansas W 83-65 76%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +28.2 +17.7 +10.6
  Jan 21, 2025 36   @ Texas L 53-61 59%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +7.3 -5.8 +12.0
  Jan 25, 2025 25   Mississippi W 83-75 70%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +20.3 +12.9 +7.0
  Feb 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 88-61 51%     17 - 4 6 - 2 +44.3 +30.0 +16.3
  Feb 05, 2025 5   @ Tennessee L 81-85 32%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +18.5 +25.8 -7.5
  Feb 08, 2025 20   Texas A&M L 64-67 66%     17 - 6 6 - 4 +10.5 +4.2 +6.0
  Feb 12, 2025 50   Oklahoma W 82-58 81%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +32.3 +8.0 +23.1
  Feb 15, 2025 44   @ Georgia W 87-74 63%     19 - 6 8 - 4 +27.2 +32.6 -3.9
  Feb 19, 2025 6   Alabama W 110-98 53%     20 - 6 9 - 4 +28.9 +29.5 -1.8
  Feb 22, 2025 35   @ Arkansas W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 84   South Carolina W 78-65 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   @ Vanderbilt W 82-78 65%    
  Mar 05, 2025 50   @ Oklahoma W 80-76 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   Kentucky W 86-83 64%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 1.0 1st
2nd 0.3 8.7 10.8 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 10.8 21.3 3.5 35.8 3rd
4th 0.0 3.6 16.0 3.6 23.2 4th
5th 0.4 8.3 3.9 12.6 5th
6th 1.5 3.6 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 0.2 1.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.4 3.8 16.0 31.1 33.5 15.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.1% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 15.2% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 2.4 2.2 6.8 4.9 1.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 33.5% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 3.2 1.3 6.9 13.2 9.2 2.8 0.3 100.0%
12-6 31.1% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 4.1 0.2 1.7 7.1 10.5 8.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.0% 99.9% 3.5% 96.4% 5.1 0.2 1.5 3.6 4.7 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 3.8% 100.0% 2.1% 97.9% 6.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.4% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 3.8 3.6 15.6 26.7 24.9 16.5 8.3 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.6 43.8 50.3 5.2 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7% 100.0% 2.1 15.9 55.9 25.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.5% 100.0% 2.3 14.2 47.1 32.5 6.0 0.2