Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#124
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#111
Pace63.3#308
Improvement+2.4#86

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#122
First Shot+1.1#134
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#161
Layup/Dunks+0.0#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#203
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement-1.7#266

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#159
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#36
Layups/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.6#359
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement+4.1#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 12.6% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 43.8% 54.5% 24.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.2% 12.6% 8.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 64.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 311 - 512 - 9
Quad 46 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 294   @ Air Force L 67-73 74%     0 - 1 -10.8 -1.1 -10.3
  Nov 13, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 72-67 82%     1 - 1 -2.6 -10.1 +7.2
  Nov 17, 2024 312   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 79%     2 - 1 +11.5 +8.7 +6.5
  Nov 21, 2024 150   East Carolina W 86-78 55%     3 - 1 +8.7 +14.1 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 221   Toledo L 80-82 70%     3 - 2 -5.2 +6.5 -11.8
  Nov 23, 2024 138   James Madison L 65-71 53%     3 - 3 -4.8 -1.5 -3.9
  Dec 08, 2024 133   @ South Alabama L 74-76 42%     3 - 4 +2.1 +10.8 -8.8
  Dec 14, 2024 125   Utah Valley W 70-66 60%     4 - 4 +3.5 +0.8 +2.8
  Dec 17, 2024 15   @ Missouri L 72-83 6%     4 - 5 +9.2 +16.3 -8.7
  Dec 21, 2024 191   @ Eastern Kentucky W 91-80 55%     5 - 5 +11.7 +17.8 -5.9
  Jan 04, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-83 42%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -7.8 +3.4 -11.5
  Jan 09, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky W 73-67 43%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +9.9 +3.7 +6.1
  Jan 11, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-81 40%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -12.2 -6.7 -5.4
  Jan 16, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech W 63-61 60%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +1.6 +4.8 -2.8
  Jan 18, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. W 70-62 67%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +5.6 +3.2 +3.3
  Jan 23, 2025 139   @ UTEP W 73-66 43%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +10.7 +4.1 +6.7
  Jan 25, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. W 65-59 45%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +9.4 +0.0 +9.6
  Jan 30, 2025 268   Florida International W 71-67 83%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -4.1 +0.0 -4.0
  Feb 01, 2025 77   Liberty W 72-61 39%     12 - 7 7 - 2 +15.8 +10.6 +6.3
  Feb 06, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee W 77-63 59%     13 - 7 8 - 2 +13.7 +9.0 +5.6
  Feb 08, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 85-83 63%     14 - 7 9 - 2 +0.8 +12.7 -11.9
  Feb 13, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. L 61-66 48%     14 - 8 9 - 3 -2.3 -8.4 +5.9
  Feb 15, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech W 70-68 40%     15 - 8 10 - 3 +6.7 +5.8 +1.0
  Feb 20, 2025 146   New Mexico St. L 52-61 64%     15 - 9 10 - 4 -10.7 -8.9 -3.5
  Feb 22, 2025 139   UTEP W 72-69 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 62-70 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 268   @ Florida International W 72-67 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. W 74-71 63%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 12.0 24.7 6.7 43.8 1st
2nd 0.3 12.3 25.4 6.2 44.3 2nd
3rd 1.5 6.9 0.8 9.2 3rd
4th 1.7 0.4 2.1 4th
5th 0.6 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.2 19.9 38.3 30.9 6.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 6.7    6.7
13-5 80.0% 24.7    11.8 12.3 0.6
12-6 31.3% 12.0    1.4 6.7 3.7 0.2
11-7 2.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 43.8% 43.8 19.9 19.0 4.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.7% 18.9% 18.9% 12.2 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.4
13-5 30.9% 13.3% 13.3% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.7 0.0 26.8
12-6 38.3% 10.8% 10.8% 13.2 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.3 0.1 34.1
11-7 19.9% 7.6% 7.6% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 18.4
10-8 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 2.8 5.6 2.6 0.2 88.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 12.2 3.2 72.2 23.8 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%
Lose Out 2.5%