Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#167
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#199
Pace62.8#330
Improvement+1.6#79

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#134
First Shot+1.6#123
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#194
Layup/Dunks+1.3#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#214
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement+1.5#69

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#235
First Shot-3.9#302
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#56
Layups/Dunks+3.8#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.4#362
Freethrows+1.5#78
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.7% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 25.8% 36.0% 16.6%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 43.0% 32.4%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.3% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.8% 11.6% 17.6%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round3.8% 4.7% 2.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 87 - 14
Quad 45 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 271   @ Air Force L 67-73 59%     0 - 1 -8.8 -0.5 -8.9
  Nov 13, 2024 263   Georgia St. W 72-67 78%     1 - 1 -3.6 -7.8 +4.1
  Nov 17, 2024 268   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 58%     2 - 1 +15.3 +11.8 +7.1
  Nov 21, 2024 159   East Carolina W 86-78 48%     3 - 1 +7.8 +14.9 -7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 211   Toledo L 80-82 57%     3 - 2 -4.5 +7.4 -11.9
  Nov 23, 2024 115   James Madison L 65-71 35%     3 - 3 -2.8 -0.4 -3.0
  Dec 08, 2024 202   @ South Alabama L 74-76 43%     3 - 4 -0.8 +7.4 -8.3
  Dec 14, 2024 148   Utah Valley W 70-66 58%     4 - 4 +1.4 +0.2 +1.3
  Dec 17, 2024 55   @ Missouri L 72-83 11%     4 - 5 +1.8 +13.4 -13.1
  Dec 21, 2024 220   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 162   @ Kennesaw St. L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 09, 2025 105   @ Western Kentucky L 70-78 23%    
  Jan 11, 2025 131   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 16, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 127   Sam Houston St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 140   @ UTEP L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 248   Florida International W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 81   Liberty L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 131   Middle Tennessee W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 105   Western Kentucky L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 127   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 20, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 140   UTEP W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 61-72 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 248   @ Florida International W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 162   Kennesaw St. W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.5 3.1 0.3 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 5.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 13.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.6 9.9 12.2 13.8 14.2 12.2 9.5 7.0 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 89.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 69.8% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 41.8% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 13.7% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 43.3% 43.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 21.4% 21.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.3% 21.5% 21.5% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.5% 14.8% 14.8% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.1
12-6 4.4% 10.7% 10.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9
11-7 7.0% 7.8% 7.8% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.4
10-8 9.5% 6.4% 6.4% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.9
9-9 12.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.6
8-10 14.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 13.7
7-11 13.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 13.5
6-12 12.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.2
5-13 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.9
4-14 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%