South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#133
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#147
Pace60.8#348
Improvement-0.9#233

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#214
First Shot+0.2#166
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#281
Layup/Dunks+1.4#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#131
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement-2.3#292

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#91
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#86
Layups/Dunks+10.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-15.2#364
Freethrows+2.8#27
Improvement+1.3#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 17.6% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 61.8% 82.4% 38.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.8% 17.6% 13.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 17 - 5
Quad 413 - 620 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 215   Central Michigan L 70-74 74%     0 - 1 -9.3 -3.6 -5.9
  Nov 08, 2024 192   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 53%     1 - 1 +6.7 +3.2 +4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 25   @ Mississippi L 54-64 8%     1 - 2 +7.4 -5.8 +12.5
  Nov 16, 2024 256   Mercer W 75-66 81%     2 - 2 +1.2 +0.6 +0.7
  Nov 25, 2024 281   Incarnate Word W 84-63 84%     3 - 2 +11.8 +10.9 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 351   Western Illinois L 63-64 93%     3 - 3 -16.5 -7.3 -9.4
  Nov 29, 2024 307   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 88%     4 - 3 -2.0 +2.0 -3.3
  Dec 08, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. W 76-74 58%     5 - 3 +1.5 +7.9 -6.3
  Dec 15, 2024 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-72 84%     6 - 3 +0.0 +8.4 -8.0
  Dec 16, 2024 64   @ TCU L 49-58 19%     6 - 4 +1.9 -7.3 +7.8
  Dec 21, 2024 138   James Madison W 77-49 61%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +26.7 +10.0 +19.6
  Jan 02, 2025 252   @ Georgia St. W 77-51 65%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +23.5 +11.0 +15.9
  Jan 04, 2025 248   @ Georgia Southern W 76-47 65%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +26.7 +3.9 +23.6
  Jan 09, 2025 97   Arkansas St. W 76-62 47%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +16.5 +18.3 +0.5
  Jan 11, 2025 286   Old Dominion L 63-71 OT 85%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -17.5 -14.0 -3.7
  Jan 15, 2025 280   Southern Miss W 75-62 84%     11 - 5 5 - 1 +3.9 -0.7 +4.4
  Jan 18, 2025 118   Troy W 64-63 55%     12 - 5 6 - 1 +1.2 -2.0 +3.3
  Jan 25, 2025 118   @ Troy L 55-65 36%     12 - 6 6 - 2 -4.7 -6.4 +0.3
  Jan 27, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe L 66-77 84%     12 - 7 6 - 3 -19.9 -7.8 -12.4
  Jan 30, 2025 336   Louisiana Monroe L 58-62 92%     12 - 8 6 - 4 -18.0 -12.7 -5.8
  Feb 01, 2025 289   @ Louisiana W 62-58 OT 72%     13 - 8 7 - 4 -0.5 -9.9 +9.5
  Feb 05, 2025 312   @ Coastal Carolina W 84-59 78%     14 - 8 8 - 4 +18.5 +26.3 -2.1
  Feb 08, 2025 102   @ Akron L 67-80 30%     14 - 9 -6.1 -1.4 -5.1
  Feb 13, 2025 190   Marshall W 91-82 OT 71%     15 - 9 9 - 4 +4.8 +8.5 -4.5
  Feb 15, 2025 202   Texas St. W 70-65 OT 73%     16 - 9 10 - 4 +0.2 -4.5 +4.9
  Feb 19, 2025 97   @ Arkansas St. W 60-56 28%     17 - 9 11 - 4 +11.5 -3.8 +15.6
  Feb 22, 2025 202   @ Texas St. W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 280   @ Southern Miss W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 28, 2025 289   Louisiana W 70-59 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 29.8 31.3 61.8 1st
2nd 4.2 16.9 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 8.6 8.7 3rd
4th 0.9 5.2 6.1 4th
5th 1.3 0.9 2.2 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.4 19.6 46.7 31.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 31.3    20.6 10.7
13-5 63.8% 29.8    1.2 7.1 12.8 7.5 1.3
12-6 3.5% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 61.8% 61.8 21.8 17.9 12.9 7.7 1.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 31.3% 18.2% 18.2% 13.0 0.0 1.2 3.3 1.1 0.0 25.6
13-5 46.7% 17.0% 17.0% 13.7 0.3 2.7 4.3 0.6 38.8
12-6 19.6% 9.9% 9.9% 14.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 17.7
11-7 2.4% 7.2% 7.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 1.5 6.5 6.7 1.1 0.0 84.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 13.0 0.2 21.4 58.0 20.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.7%
Lose Out 0.7%