South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#196
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#199
Pace68.9#193
Improvement-0.6#248

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#218
First Shot+0.4#166
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#292
Layup/Dunks+0.8#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+1.3#121
Improvement-1.1#327

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#173
First Shot-0.9#205
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#127
Layups/Dunks+6.1#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.2#362
Freethrows+2.2#72
Improvement+0.5#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 65.5% 70.4% 44.7%
.500 or above in Conference 59.9% 62.6% 48.4%
Conference Champion 6.0% 6.6% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.2% 6.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.5% 6.0% 3.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 202   Central Michigan L 70-74 63%     0 - 1 -9.0 -0.9 -8.2
  Nov 08, 2024 220   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 43%     1 - 1 +6.0 +3.5 +3.0
  Nov 12, 2024 47   @ Mississippi L 54-64 9%     1 - 2 +2.8 -9.8 +11.9
  Nov 16, 2024 254   Mercer W 75-66 72%     2 - 2 +1.3 -0.3 +1.7
  Nov 25, 2024 308   Incarnate Word W 79-70 81%    
  Nov 26, 2024 325   Western Illinois W 72-62 83%    
  Nov 29, 2024 350   Alcorn St. W 76-62 91%    
  Dec 08, 2024 184   Jacksonville St. W 68-65 59%    
  Dec 15, 2024 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 16, 2024 60   @ TCU L 65-79 11%    
  Dec 21, 2024 128   James Madison L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 02, 2025 223   @ Georgia St. L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 214   @ Georgia Southern L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 09, 2025 112   Arkansas St. L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 305   Old Dominion W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 15, 2025 229   Southern Miss W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 124   Troy L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 324   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 124   @ Troy L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 324   Louisiana Monroe W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 244   @ Louisiana L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 296   @ Coastal Carolina W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 195   Marshall W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 166   Texas St. W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 112   @ Arkansas St. L 66-75 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 166   @ Texas St. L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 229   @ Southern Miss L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 28, 2025 244   Louisiana W 74-69 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.0 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.8 1.0 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 4.9 1.8 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.6 1.1 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 1.4 0.1 6.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.9 5.2 7.7 10.2 11.8 12.7 12.5 11.3 8.8 6.8 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 95.2% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
15-3 71.7% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1
14-4 44.2% 1.9    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.8% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.0% 40.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 35.8% 35.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.0% 28.5% 28.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-3 2.2% 22.9% 22.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.7
14-4 4.3% 18.3% 18.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.5
13-5 6.8% 14.6% 14.6% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.8
12-6 8.8% 10.4% 10.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.9
11-7 11.3% 7.1% 7.1% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 10.5
10-8 12.5% 4.2% 4.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 12.0
9-9 12.7% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.4
8-10 11.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.6
7-11 10.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.1
6-12 7.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.6
5-13 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.0 1.4 0.4 94.5 0.0%