Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#208
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.5#270
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#214
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 11.1% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 52.5% 73.0% 46.4%
.500 or above in Conference 58.3% 71.3% 54.4%
Conference Champion 8.8% 14.5% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.3% 3.5%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round7.2% 10.8% 6.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 122   @ DePaul L 66-74 23%    
  Nov 21, 2024 64   @ South Carolina L 58-72 10%    
  Nov 25, 2024 222   Jacksonville W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 04, 2024 351   West Georgia W 76-63 88%    
  Dec 08, 2024 290   @ Stetson W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 15, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 71-60 83%    
  Dec 18, 2024 289   @ Queens W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 21, 2024 189   @ Winthrop L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 28, 2024 204   @ Georgia St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 01, 2025 147   Chattanooga L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 361   @ VMI W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 08, 2025 170   East Tennessee St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 238   @ Western Carolina L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 138   Samford L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 153   @ Wofford L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 22, 2025 188   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 165   Furman W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 325   The Citadel W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 147   @ Chattanooga L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 05, 2025 138   @ Samford L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 153   Wofford W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 165   @ Furman L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 361   VMI W 84-67 91%    
  Feb 19, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 188   UNC Greensboro W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 170   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-71 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 238   Western Carolina W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.6 1.3 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.7 1.2 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 4.7 1.2 0.1 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.0 3.8 1.0 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 4.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.8 5.6 8.0 9.9 11.0 11.6 11.2 10.2 8.7 6.6 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.2% 1.5    1.3 0.2
15-3 81.7% 2.4    1.7 0.6 0.1
14-4 52.4% 2.5    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 20.7% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 5.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 63.8% 59.5% 4.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6%
17-1 0.6% 46.5% 45.2% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4%
16-2 1.6% 36.8% 36.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 2.9% 32.5% 32.5% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-4 4.8% 22.6% 22.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.7
13-5 6.6% 18.1% 18.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 5.4
12-6 8.7% 12.2% 12.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 7.6
11-7 10.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 9.4
10-8 11.2% 5.8% 5.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.6
9-9 11.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.1
8-10 11.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.8
7-11 9.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
6-12 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.9
5-13 5.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.6
4-14 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.7 92.4 0.0%