Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#238
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#259
Pace74.4#57
Improvement+0.2#177

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#216
First Shot-0.9#199
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#236
Layup/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#249
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement-0.8#239

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot-3.0#281
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#141
Layups/Dunks+0.1#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#175
Freethrows-2.7#336
Improvement+0.9#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.8% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 26.3% 38.1% 16.6%
.500 or above in Conference 44.7% 50.9% 39.7%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.2% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.4% 4.3%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round2.7% 3.5% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 410 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 102   @ DePaul L 64-95 13%     0 - 1 -23.2 -10.9 -9.8
  Nov 16, 2024 157   @ South Alabama L 66-75 25%     0 - 2 -6.0 -3.7 -2.5
  Nov 21, 2024 67   @ South Carolina L 72-84 9%     0 - 3 -1.1 +5.9 -7.3
  Nov 25, 2024 209   Jacksonville W 90-89 OT 43%     1 - 3 -1.5 +8.4 -10.0
  Nov 26, 2024 210   Miami (OH) L 72-75 43%     1 - 4 -5.5 -5.2 -0.1
  Dec 04, 2024 341   West Georgia W 86-72 83%     2 - 4 -0.4 +11.8 -11.3
  Dec 08, 2024 347   @ Stetson W 89-83 OT 68%     3 - 4 -2.9 -0.1 -3.6
  Dec 15, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 75-63 89%     4 - 4 -5.6 -3.1 -2.5
  Dec 18, 2024 264   @ Queens L 66-73 43%     4 - 5 -9.5 -14.6 +5.7
  Dec 21, 2024 189   @ Winthrop L 97-102 29%     4 - 6 -3.5 +6.0 -8.6
  Dec 28, 2024 272   @ Georgia St. L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 01, 2025 171   Chattanooga L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 343   @ VMI W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 142   East Tennessee St. L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 313   @ Western Carolina W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 115   Samford L 83-87 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 152   @ Wofford L 70-77 24%    
  Jan 22, 2025 158   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 25, 2025 116   Furman L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 355   The Citadel W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 171   @ Chattanooga L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 115   @ Samford L 80-90 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 152   Wofford L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 116   @ Furman L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 343   VMI W 81-71 83%    
  Feb 19, 2025 355   @ The Citadel W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 158   UNC Greensboro L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 71-79 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 313   Western Carolina W 80-73 74%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 5.0 5.5 1.4 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.8 6.7 1.9 0.1 18.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.5 8.9 6.7 1.8 0.1 24.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 4.4 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.1 7.6 11.1 14.3 15.4 14.5 12.0 8.4 5.3 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 87.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 61.9% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 28.1% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 15.9% 15.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 24.2% 24.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.3% 16.5% 16.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.8% 10.8% 10.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.5
12-6 5.3% 6.2% 6.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.0
11-7 8.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.9
10-8 12.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 11.4
9-9 14.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 14.0
8-10 15.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 15.1
7-11 14.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.1
6-12 11.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.0
5-13 7.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.6
4-14 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 96.9 0.0%