Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#256
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#261
Pace76.4#21
Improvement-1.7#269

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#278
First Shot-2.6#251
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#262
Layup/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#229
Freethrows-0.8#231
Improvement-2.8#305

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#214
First Shot-1.6#226
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#160
Layups/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
Freethrows-0.9#256
Improvement+1.1#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.6% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 33 - 104 - 15
Quad 49 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 120   @ DePaul L 64-95 16%     0 - 1 -25.9 -11.3 -11.9
  Nov 16, 2024 133   @ South Alabama L 66-75 19%     0 - 2 -4.9 -1.6 -3.4
  Nov 21, 2024 84   @ South Carolina L 72-84 9%     0 - 3 -2.7 +6.8 -9.8
  Nov 25, 2024 193   Jacksonville W 90-89 OT 37%     1 - 3 -0.9 +8.5 -9.5
  Nov 26, 2024 171   Miami (OH) L 72-75 32%     1 - 4 -3.5 -6.0 +2.7
  Dec 04, 2024 348   West Georgia W 86-72 83%     2 - 4 -1.3 +11.1 -11.5
  Dec 08, 2024 349   @ Stetson W 89-83 OT 69%     3 - 4 -4.3 -1.7 -3.4
  Dec 15, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 75-63 88%     4 - 4 -6.3 -3.9 -2.3
  Dec 18, 2024 231   @ Queens L 66-73 35%     4 - 5 -8.3 -15.2 +7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 196   @ Winthrop L 97-102 29%     4 - 6 -4.5 +4.4 -8.0
  Dec 28, 2024 252   @ Georgia St. W 71-68 40%     5 - 6 +0.5 -5.9 +6.4
  Jan 01, 2025 119   Chattanooga W 99-94 OT 30%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +5.2 +5.6 -1.2
  Jan 04, 2025 309   @ VMI W 70-67 53%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -3.0 -9.6 +6.4
  Jan 08, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. L 68-70 37%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -3.8 -2.8 -1.1
  Jan 12, 2025 333   @ Western Carolina L 82-85 61%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -11.2 -0.2 -10.8
  Jan 15, 2025 113   Samford L 74-75 29%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -0.6 -2.5 +2.0
  Jan 18, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 49-69 20%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -16.4 -19.9 +1.9
  Jan 22, 2025 154   @ UNC Greensboro W 79-78 21%     8 - 10 3 - 4 +4.1 +5.0 -0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 159   Furman L 74-79 39%     8 - 11 3 - 5 -7.4 +3.3 -11.0
  Jan 29, 2025 358   The Citadel W 80-46 86%     9 - 11 4 - 5 +17.1 +0.8 +16.7
  Feb 01, 2025 119   @ Chattanooga L 84-93 16%     9 - 12 4 - 6 -3.7 +3.8 -6.9
  Feb 05, 2025 113   @ Samford L 79-100 16%     9 - 13 4 - 7 -15.5 -0.4 -12.8
  Feb 08, 2025 142   Wofford L 66-77 36%     9 - 14 4 - 8 -12.5 -11.3 -0.8
  Feb 12, 2025 159   @ Furman L 72-96 22%     9 - 15 4 - 9 -21.3 +0.3 -21.7
  Feb 15, 2025 309   VMI L 71-80 71%     9 - 16 4 - 10 -20.0 -5.7 -14.4
  Feb 19, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 62-52 73%     10 - 16 5 - 10 -1.8 -13.3 +11.9
  Feb 22, 2025 154   UNC Greensboro L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-77 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 333   Western Carolina W 81-73 79%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 19.0 5.7 24.7 7th
8th 8.2 46.8 16.4 0.7 72.1 8th
9th 3.1 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 11.3 46.8 35.4 6.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 6.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 6.3
7-11 35.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.6 34.8
6-12 46.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.4 46.4
5-13 11.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 1.2 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 4.0%