VMI
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#304
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#280
Pace69.4#154
Improvement+3.9#35

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#286
First Shot-4.4#298
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#173
Layup/Dunks-5.6#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows+1.6#89
Improvement+1.9#79

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#289
First Shot-2.8#264
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#288
Layups/Dunks-0.6#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#326
Freethrows+1.9#61
Improvement+2.1#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.1% 20.1% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 93 - 13
Quad 47 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 359   @ Bellarmine W 76-71 63%     1 - 0 -6.6 -5.1 -1.4
  Nov 15, 2024 312   Tennessee Tech L 71-72 53%     1 - 1 -9.8 -9.0 -0.8
  Nov 16, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 80-69 46%     2 - 1 +3.8 +2.6 +0.8
  Nov 18, 2024 38   @ Pittsburgh L 48-93 3%     2 - 2 -30.3 -18.3 -12.9
  Nov 22, 2024 124   @ Davidson L 66-93 12%     2 - 3 -22.3 -8.1 -13.7
  Nov 26, 2024 329   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-70 49%     2 - 4 -10.8 -5.2 -5.8
  Nov 29, 2024 122   @ George Washington L 64-77 11%     2 - 5 -8.0 +1.2 -10.5
  Dec 07, 2024 217   Queens L 78-81 40%     2 - 6 -8.6 +4.0 -12.8
  Dec 21, 2024 206   @ Richmond L 71-78 22%     2 - 7 -7.0 +4.9 -12.4
  Jan 01, 2025 152   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-84 14%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -11.7 +3.4 -16.4
  Jan 04, 2025 221   Mercer L 67-70 41%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -8.8 -12.6 +4.1
  Jan 09, 2025 109   @ Samford L 68-81 10%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -6.8 -5.6 -0.8
  Jan 12, 2025 144   @ Chattanooga L 66-91 13%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -21.2 -0.1 -23.8
  Jan 15, 2025 348   Western Carolina W 66-50 75%     3 - 11 1 - 4 +0.9 -9.2 +10.8
  Jan 18, 2025 356   @ The Citadel W 75-70 61%     4 - 11 2 - 4 -6.2 +2.4 -8.2
  Jan 22, 2025 161   Furman W 91-82 29%     5 - 11 3 - 4 +6.6 +16.0 -9.5
  Jan 25, 2025 146   UNC Greensboro L 57-60 26%     5 - 12 3 - 5 -4.4 -12.9 +8.3
  Jan 29, 2025 157   @ Wofford W 74-67 15%     6 - 12 4 - 5 +9.8 +6.4 +4.0
  Feb 01, 2025 348   @ Western Carolina W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 152   East Tennessee St. L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 356   The Citadel W 73-65 79%    
  Feb 12, 2025 146   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-75 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   @ Mercer L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 19, 2025 157   Wofford L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 161   @ Furman L 66-77 15%    
  Feb 27, 2025 109   Samford L 73-82 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 144   Chattanooga L 71-78 27%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.6 0.6 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 8.9 11.4 2.8 0.1 25.3 7th
8th 1.3 11.4 22.6 18.1 4.5 0.1 58.1 8th
9th 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 2.5 12.9 25.1 27.3 19.1 9.4 2.9 0.8 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
9-9 9.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.3
8-10 19.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.0
7-11 27.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 27.1
6-12 25.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.1
5-13 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-14 2.5% 2.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%