VMI
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#311
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#281
Pace70.1#122
Improvement+0.7#168

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#313
First Shot-5.2#315
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#187
Layup/Dunks-5.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#180
Freethrows+1.4#95
Improvement-0.6#212

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#276
First Shot-2.3#244
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#284
Layups/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#319
Freethrows+2.0#59
Improvement+1.3#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 82 - 14
Quad 48 - 510 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 340   @ Bellarmine W 76-71 52%     1 - 0 -4.2 -4.5 +0.3
  Nov 15, 2024 315   Tennessee Tech L 71-72 52%     1 - 1 -10.1 -8.5 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2024 300   Charleston Southern W 80-69 47%     2 - 1 +3.1 +1.4 +1.4
  Nov 18, 2024 58   @ Pittsburgh L 48-93 4%     2 - 2 -32.6 -19.4 -14.1
  Nov 22, 2024 132   @ Davidson L 66-93 12%     2 - 3 -22.7 -7.4 -14.9
  Nov 26, 2024 317   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-70 42%     2 - 4 -9.5 -3.9 -5.8
  Nov 29, 2024 120   @ George Washington L 64-77 10%     2 - 5 -7.7 +2.0 -11.0
  Dec 07, 2024 224   Queens L 78-81 40%     2 - 6 -9.0 +3.6 -12.7
  Dec 21, 2024 226   @ Richmond L 71-78 22%     2 - 7 -7.7 +3.5 -11.7
  Jan 01, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-84 13%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -11.5 +4.6 -17.4
  Jan 04, 2025 257   Mercer L 67-70 47%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -11.0 -12.8 +2.0
  Jan 09, 2025 115   @ Samford L 68-81 10%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -7.3 -5.9 -1.0
  Jan 12, 2025 114   @ Chattanooga L 66-91 10%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -19.3 -1.4 -20.5
  Jan 15, 2025 338   Western Carolina W 66-50 71%     3 - 11 1 - 4 +1.6 -10.2 +12.4
  Jan 18, 2025 357   @ The Citadel W 75-70 62%     4 - 11 2 - 4 -6.7 +1.2 -7.6
  Jan 22, 2025 148   Furman W 91-82 26%     5 - 11 3 - 4 +6.9 +16.5 -9.6
  Jan 25, 2025 144   UNC Greensboro L 57-60 26%     5 - 12 3 - 5 -4.8 -13.0 +8.0
  Jan 29, 2025 143   @ Wofford W 74-67 13%     6 - 12 4 - 5 +10.7 +7.5 +3.8
  Feb 01, 2025 338   @ Western Carolina W 80-76 OT 51%     7 - 12 5 - 5 -5.0 -1.8 -3.5
  Feb 05, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. L 55-62 26%     7 - 13 5 - 6 -8.9 -16.3 +7.2
  Feb 08, 2025 357   The Citadel W 82-70 79%     8 - 13 6 - 6 -5.1 +1.9 -7.0
  Feb 12, 2025 144   @ UNC Greensboro L 54-80 13%     8 - 14 6 - 7 -22.4 -17.0 -5.4
  Feb 15, 2025 257   @ Mercer W 80-71 28%     9 - 14 7 - 7 +6.5 +8.2 -1.7
  Feb 19, 2025 143   Wofford L 43-82 25%     9 - 15 7 - 8 -40.7 -32.3 -9.0
  Feb 22, 2025 148   @ Furman L 71-75 13%     9 - 16 7 - 9 -0.7 +1.4 -2.2
  Feb 27, 2025 115   Samford L 83-95 20%     9 - 17 7 - 10 -11.7 +4.4 -15.5
  Mar 01, 2025 114   Chattanooga L 70-91 20%     9 - 18 7 - 11 -20.7 -6.5 -14.4
  Mar 07, 2025 357   The Citadel W 72-66 71%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.3 99.7
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.4%
Lose Out 27.7%