VMI
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.7#345
Expected Predictive Rating-11.2#331
Pace69.5#161
Improvement-1.1#249

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#328
First Shot-6.1#337
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#155
Layup/Dunks-6.4#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement+1.6#72

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#346
First Shot-4.4#320
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#311
Layups/Dunks-1.3#219
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#319
Freethrows+1.6#74
Improvement-2.7#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 8.3% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.5% 22.8% 45.0%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 45 - 96 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 346   @ Bellarmine W 76-71 39%     1 - 0 -3.8 -3.4 -0.3
  Nov 15, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech L 71-72 42%     1 - 1 -10.5 -9.6 -0.9
  Nov 16, 2024 298   Charleston Southern W 80-69 33%     2 - 1 +3.7 +0.6 +2.7
  Nov 18, 2024 29   @ Pittsburgh L 48-93 1%     2 - 2 -28.8 -16.7 -13.0
  Nov 22, 2024 115   @ Davidson L 66-93 6%     2 - 3 -21.1 -6.5 -14.2
  Nov 26, 2024 324   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-70 29%     2 - 4 -9.1 -3.1 -6.2
  Nov 29, 2024 135   @ George Washington L 64-77 8%     2 - 5 -8.7 -0.9 -9.2
  Dec 07, 2024 264   Queens L 78-81 38%     2 - 6 -11.6 +3.1 -14.7
  Dec 21, 2024 242   @ Richmond L 71-78 16%     2 - 7 -8.3 +2.4 -11.2
  Jan 01, 2025 139   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-81 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 231   Mercer L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 118   @ Samford L 73-91 5%    
  Jan 11, 2025 172   @ Chattanooga L 67-81 9%    
  Jan 15, 2025 317   Western Carolina L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 352   @ The Citadel L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 112   Furman L 64-76 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 159   UNC Greensboro L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 29, 2025 154   @ Wofford L 64-79 9%    
  Feb 01, 2025 317   @ Western Carolina L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 05, 2025 139   East Tennessee St. L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 352   The Citadel W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 12, 2025 159   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-76 9%    
  Feb 15, 2025 231   @ Mercer L 70-81 16%    
  Feb 19, 2025 154   Wofford L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 112   @ Furman L 61-79 6%    
  Feb 27, 2025 118   Samford L 76-88 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 172   Chattanooga L 70-78 24%    
Projected Record 6 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.7 3.0 1.3 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 5.0 7.4 5.5 1.7 0.2 21.1 8th
9th 0.5 4.8 11.5 11.0 5.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 35.2 9th
10th 2.7 8.2 10.4 6.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 30.2 10th
Total 2.7 8.7 15.2 19.3 18.2 14.6 10.0 5.7 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 9.8% 0.0    0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.2
10-8 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 3.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
7-11 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.6
4-14 18.2% 18.2
3-15 19.3% 19.3
2-16 15.2% 15.2
1-17 8.7% 8.7
0-18 2.7% 2.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%