Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#25
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#33
Pace69.5#171
Improvement-0.2#198

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#32
First Shot+10.5#6
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#341
Layup/Dunks+5.3#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#94
Freethrows-0.1#191
Improvement+0.4#117

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#23
First Shot+10.8#3
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#342
Layups/Dunks+3.4#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#46
Freethrows+3.6#35
Improvement-0.6#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.1% 4.1% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 7.9% 10.3% 3.7%
Top 4 Seed 23.7% 28.9% 14.1%
Top 6 Seed 42.2% 49.3% 29.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.9% 85.2% 70.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.7% 83.3% 67.9%
Average Seed 6.3 6.0 7.0
.500 or above 96.3% 98.2% 92.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 89.2% 82.2%
Conference Champion 10.7% 12.5% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four5.0% 4.1% 6.5%
First Round77.4% 83.2% 67.0%
Second Round52.4% 58.0% 42.2%
Sweet Sixteen24.7% 28.7% 17.5%
Elite Eight11.0% 13.0% 7.3%
Final Four4.7% 5.7% 2.9%
Championship Game1.9% 2.4% 1.2%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: LSU (Neutral) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 27 - 212 - 9
Quad 37 - 118 - 10
Quad 44 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 227   Radford W 96-56 96%     1 - 0 +33.8 +15.5 +17.9
  Nov 08, 2024 109   Murray St. W 83-68 87%     2 - 0 +16.1 +10.1 +6.2
  Nov 11, 2024 222   Gardner-Webb W 83-64 96%     3 - 0 +13.0 +3.8 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 76   West Virginia W 86-62 80%     4 - 0 +28.5 +12.3 +15.3
  Nov 18, 2024 347   VMI W 93-48 99%     5 - 0 +29.6 +15.6 +14.9
  Nov 22, 2024 48   LSU W 77-73 65%    
  Nov 29, 2024 20   @ Ohio St. L 69-72 38%    
  Dec 04, 2024 29   @ Mississippi St. L 73-75 41%    
  Dec 07, 2024 95   @ Virginia Tech W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 11, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky W 84-66 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 115   Sam Houston St. W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 01, 2025 104   California W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 67   Stanford W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 07, 2025 5   @ Duke L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 46   Louisville W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 15, 2025 79   @ Florida St. W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 49   Clemson W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 92   @ Syracuse W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 28, 2025 7   North Carolina L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 73   @ Wake Forest W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 03, 2025 58   Virginia W 66-58 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 11, 2025 68   @ SMU W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 37   Miami (FL) W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 18, 2025 92   Syracuse W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 56   @ Notre Dame W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 25, 2025 106   Georgia Tech W 84-72 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 46   @ Louisville W 76-75 52%    
  Mar 05, 2025 52   @ North Carolina St. W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 133   Boston College W 79-64 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.8 4.4 1.1 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 4.0 0.9 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.8 10.4 12.3 13.5 13.3 11.4 8.6 5.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 98.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1
18-2 86.5% 2.4    1.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 59.7% 3.3    1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 31.1% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 9.1% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 5.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.8% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.5% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 8.6% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 3.7 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.4% 99.6% 15.5% 84.1% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 13.3% 98.8% 11.2% 87.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.7 2.9 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 98.6%
13-7 13.5% 95.4% 7.0% 88.4% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 95.1%
12-8 12.3% 88.4% 4.1% 84.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.0 1.4 87.9%
11-9 10.4% 73.7% 2.9% 70.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.6 0.1 2.7 72.9%
10-10 7.8% 52.6% 1.7% 50.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.1 3.7 51.8%
9-11 5.6% 25.8% 1.0% 24.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 4.2 25.1%
8-12 3.7% 8.9% 0.6% 8.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.3 8.3%
7-13 2.1% 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.2%
6-14 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 79.9% 9.6% 70.3% 6.3 3.1 4.9 7.4 8.4 9.3 9.3 8.8 8.3 7.9 6.8 5.3 0.5 20.1 77.7%