SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#37
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#45
Pace72.6#66
Improvement+1.2#136

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#26
First Shot+5.7#46
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#43
Layup/Dunks+4.5#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
Freethrows+3.4#26
Improvement+0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#66
First Shot+3.7#70
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks+4.9#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#218
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement+1.0#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.7% 58.0% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.5% 55.7% 31.4%
Average Seed 10.2 9.9 10.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four20.6% 20.9% 20.4%
First Round36.2% 48.6% 23.6%
Second Round16.1% 23.1% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 6.5% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.3% 0.9%
Final Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Clemson (Home) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 27 - 28 - 8
Quad 311 - 119 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 273   Tarleton St. W 96-62 97%     1 - 0 +25.1 +18.2 +5.1
  Nov 07, 2024 321   Florida A&M W 102-73 98%     2 - 0 +17.0 +12.4 +1.6
  Nov 11, 2024 154   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 91%     3 - 0 +11.0 +4.3 +6.2
  Nov 15, 2024 66   @ Butler L 70-81 57%     3 - 1 -0.1 +1.0 -1.2
  Nov 18, 2024 356   Prairie View W 110-69 99%     4 - 1 +24.7 +14.3 +4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 79-84 51%     4 - 2 +7.2 +11.3 -4.1
  Nov 26, 2024 158   California Baptist W 79-77 87%     5 - 2 +2.2 +13.2 -10.8
  Nov 27, 2024 107   Washington St. W 77-60 80%     6 - 2 +20.6 +13.3 +9.1
  Dec 03, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 101-72 98%     7 - 2 +17.7 +18.4 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 93   Virginia W 63-51 82%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.7 -2.2 +18.2
  Dec 14, 2024 72   LSU W 74-64 68%     9 - 2 +17.9 +3.3 +14.2
  Dec 21, 2024 174   @ Boston College W 103-77 84%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +27.9 +29.1 -1.7
  Dec 29, 2024 200   Longwood W 98-82 94%     11 - 2 +11.3 +13.3 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 2   Duke L 62-89 21%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -6.0 +2.8 -10.7
  Jan 07, 2025 40   @ North Carolina L 67-82 42%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -0.3 -4.2 +4.9
  Jan 11, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 93-71 83%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +24.3 +16.0 +6.7
  Jan 15, 2025 93   @ Virginia W 54-52 68%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +9.7 -7.8 +17.8
  Jan 18, 2025 152   @ Miami (FL) W 117-74 81%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +46.1 +41.5 +4.8
  Jan 21, 2025 21   Louisville L 73-98 47%     14 - 5 5 - 3 -11.8 +9.1 -21.8
  Jan 25, 2025 103   @ North Carolina St. W 63-57 71%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +12.8 -1.1 +14.3
  Jan 29, 2025 112   California W 76-65 86%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +11.7 -0.3 +11.8
  Feb 01, 2025 88   Stanford W 85-61 80%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +27.8 +14.1 +14.0
  Feb 05, 2025 128   @ Virginia Tech W 81-75 78%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +10.3 +19.3 -8.3
  Feb 11, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 83-63 67%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +28.1 +15.5 +13.3
  Feb 15, 2025 55   Wake Forest L 66-77 67%     19 - 6 10 - 4 -3.0 +4.9 -8.7
  Feb 19, 2025 95   @ Notre Dame W 97-73 68%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +31.7 +24.2 +6.9
  Feb 22, 2025 23   Clemson L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 112   @ California W 82-75 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 88   @ Stanford W 79-75 62%    
  Mar 04, 2025 108   Syracuse W 85-73 87%    
  Mar 08, 2025 82   @ Florida St. W 79-76 60%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 6.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.9 21.1 28.9 6.7 60.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 11.7 11.1 0.8 25.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 1.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.4 4.5 16.8 32.4 32.2 13.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 13.7% 76.6% 7.4% 69.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.2 2.3 0.0 3.2 74.7%
15-5 32.2% 57.7% 5.0% 52.7% 10.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.4 6.1 8.6 0.3 13.6 55.5%
14-6 32.4% 38.0% 2.7% 35.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.9 7.8 0.8 20.1 36.2%
13-7 16.8% 22.6% 2.2% 20.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 0.3 13.0 20.9%
12-8 4.5% 10.7% 0.7% 10.0% 11.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.0 10.1%
11-9 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.4 2.4%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 45.7% 3.9% 41.8% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.2 5.6 13.0 21.6 1.5 54.3 43.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 5.9 2.9 6.9 23.5 33.3 26.5 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1% 90.4% 8.8 1.0 2.9 11.5 21.1 24.9 21.5 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.8% 76.9% 9.6 0.3 0.5 3.1 8.2 20.4 28.6 15.6 0.2