SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#68
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#117
Pace77.2#29
Improvement+0.0#175

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#46
First Shot+5.1#52
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#154
Layup/Dunks+5.4#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows+1.4#117
Improvement-0.3#227

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#97
First Shot+1.5#128
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#111
Layups/Dunks+0.8#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#89
Freethrows-0.6#217
Improvement+0.3#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.9% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 3.6% 5.9% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 33.2% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.6% 31.5% 15.7%
Average Seed 8.8 8.6 9.1
.500 or above 73.1% 84.3% 64.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.7% 60.2% 46.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.2% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.6% 5.1%
First Four5.1% 6.3% 4.1%
First Round21.2% 29.8% 14.4%
Second Round10.5% 15.5% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 4.6% 1.8%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.8% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 7
Quad 25 - 57 - 12
Quad 35 - 112 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 317   Tarleton St. W 96-62 96%     1 - 0 +22.5 +13.9 +6.8
  Nov 07, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 102-73 98%     2 - 0 +12.0 +11.6 -2.7
  Nov 11, 2024 170   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 86%     3 - 0 +9.4 +2.6 +6.1
  Nov 15, 2024 85   @ Butler L 70-81 44%     3 - 1 -1.3 +2.3 -3.6
  Nov 18, 2024 348   Prairie View W 110-69 98%     4 - 1 +25.3 +14.9 +4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 29   Mississippi St. L 78-80 44%    
  Nov 26, 2024 181   California Baptist W 80-71 81%    
  Dec 03, 2024 282   Alabama St. W 83-66 95%    
  Dec 07, 2024 58   Virginia W 67-65 58%    
  Dec 14, 2024 48   LSU L 79-80 45%    
  Dec 21, 2024 133   @ Boston College W 78-74 62%    
  Dec 29, 2024 179   Longwood W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 5   Duke L 74-82 24%    
  Jan 07, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 79-91 14%    
  Jan 11, 2025 106   Georgia Tech W 87-80 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 58   @ Virginia L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 37   @ Miami (FL) L 78-84 29%    
  Jan 21, 2025 46   Louisville W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 52   @ North Carolina St. L 77-81 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 104   California W 82-75 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 67   Stanford W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 95   @ Virginia Tech L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 25   Pittsburgh L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 73   Wake Forest W 80-76 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 56   @ Notre Dame L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 49   Clemson W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 104   @ California W 79-78 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 67   @ Stanford L 76-79 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 92   Syracuse W 86-80 69%    
  Mar 07, 2025 79   @ Florida St. L 78-80 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.0 1.5 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 4.0 0.8 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.1 1.8 0.1 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.3 0.2 4.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.6 8.9 10.8 11.9 12.1 11.6 9.8 7.6 5.3 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 97.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 81.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1
17-3 64.3% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 26.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 7.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 99.7% 13.8% 85.8% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
16-4 1.7% 97.5% 10.0% 87.6% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
15-5 3.4% 93.9% 8.9% 85.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 93.3%
14-6 5.3% 84.0% 6.1% 77.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.9 83.0%
13-7 7.6% 62.9% 3.3% 59.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.8 61.6%
12-8 9.8% 43.3% 2.4% 40.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.1 5.6 41.9%
11-9 11.6% 22.9% 1.0% 21.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.2 8.9 22.1%
10-10 12.1% 10.8% 0.5% 10.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 10.8 10.4%
9-11 11.9% 2.4% 0.3% 2.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.7 2.2%
8-12 10.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.3%
7-13 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 8.9 0.0%
6-14 6.6% 6.6
5-15 4.3% 4.3
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.9% 1.7% 22.2% 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.0 5.1 5.2 0.6 76.1 22.6%