SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#49
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#50
Pace73.0#76
Improvement+2.2#50

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#39
First Shot+3.8#73
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#47
Layup/Dunks+4.7#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#210
Freethrows+3.3#33
Improvement-1.1#272

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#77
First Shot+2.8#93
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#86
Layups/Dunks+5.0#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#259
Freethrows-0.8#244
Improvement+3.3#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 2.2% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 6.3% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.7% 44.7% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.9% 41.9% 26.7%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.6
.500 or above 97.8% 98.9% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 88.6% 71.2%
Conference Champion 4.5% 5.5% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four10.4% 10.7% 9.6%
First Round35.3% 39.1% 24.0%
Second Round17.2% 19.5% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.4% 6.2% 2.9%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.2% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 27 - 59 - 10
Quad 37 - 116 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 286   Tarleton St. W 96-62 96%     1 - 0 +24.2 +16.4 +6.0
  Nov 07, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 102-73 99%     2 - 0 +12.3 +12.8 -3.5
  Nov 11, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 89%     3 - 0 +9.9 +4.2 +5.1
  Nov 15, 2024 74   @ Butler L 70-81 49%     3 - 1 -0.5 +1.6 -2.2
  Nov 18, 2024 337   Prairie View W 110-69 98%     4 - 1 +26.8 +11.7 +9.6
  Nov 22, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 79-84 50%     4 - 2 +5.3 +9.2 -3.9
  Nov 26, 2024 176   California Baptist W 79-77 85%     5 - 2 +1.1 +10.7 -9.4
  Nov 27, 2024 77   Washington St. W 77-60 62%     6 - 2 +24.1 +16.7 +9.3
  Dec 03, 2024 297   Alabama St. W 101-72 96%     7 - 2 +18.8 +17.7 -0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 90   Virginia W 63-51 75%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +15.2 +2.4 +14.1
  Dec 14, 2024 56   LSU W 74-64 53%     9 - 2 +19.6 +3.6 +15.6
  Dec 21, 2024 152   @ Boston College W 78-71 75%    
  Dec 29, 2024 172   Longwood W 82-68 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 2   Duke L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 07, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 80-87 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 15, 2025 90   @ Virginia W 64-63 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 93   @ Miami (FL) W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 21, 2025 51   Louisville W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 78   @ North Carolina St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 118   California W 85-74 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 94   Stanford W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 05, 2025 126   @ Virginia Tech W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 33   Pittsburgh W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 86   Wake Forest W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 19, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   Clemson W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 118   @ California W 82-77 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 94   @ Stanford W 78-77 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 95   Syracuse W 84-76 75%    
  Mar 07, 2025 63   @ Florida St. L 78-79 44%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.4 4.0 1.1 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 5.6 3.8 0.9 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.1 4.1 0.9 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.5 3.5 4.4 1.1 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.3 7.2 10.2 12.3 14.2 14.2 12.3 9.6 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
18-2 77.0% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
17-3 43.8% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 16.6% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 4.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 99.9% 19.6% 80.2% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
17-3 3.3% 98.1% 13.8% 84.3% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.7%
16-4 6.3% 93.3% 12.2% 81.1% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 92.4%
15-5 9.6% 83.8% 8.8% 75.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.0 1.6 82.3%
14-6 12.3% 65.8% 6.2% 59.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.2 0.1 4.2 63.5%
13-7 14.2% 47.2% 4.1% 43.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.3 3.0 0.2 7.5 45.0%
12-8 14.2% 29.0% 2.2% 26.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 0.2 10.1 27.4%
11-9 12.3% 15.6% 1.6% 13.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 10.4 14.2%
10-10 10.2% 7.2% 1.1% 6.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 9.4 6.2%
9-11 7.2% 1.6% 0.3% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1 1.3%
8-12 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.3 0.1%
7-13 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.7% 4.4% 36.3% 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.9 6.7 9.4 10.4 0.7 59.3 37.9%