Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#67
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#88
Pace66.6#266
Improvement-0.6#259

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#47
First Shot+3.9#72
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#92
Layup/Dunks+0.2#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#121
Freethrows+1.7#97
Improvement-0.8#308

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot-1.6#233
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#17
Layups/Dunks-2.1#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#70
Freethrows-2.6#310
Improvement+0.2#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 4.2% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 25.8% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.9% 24.3% 10.2%
Average Seed 8.8 8.8 9.6
.500 or above 82.5% 84.6% 62.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.6% 56.4% 38.9%
Conference Champion 1.7% 1.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.3% 7.7%
First Four5.6% 5.8% 3.7%
First Round21.4% 22.7% 8.6%
Second Round10.6% 11.3% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 7
Quad 25 - 47 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 295   Denver W 85-62 95%     1 - 0 +12.9 +7.5 +5.7
  Nov 08, 2024 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-53 93%     2 - 0 +18.4 +12.2 +8.9
  Nov 12, 2024 277   Northern Arizona W 90-64 94%     3 - 0 +17.1 +25.4 -4.5
  Nov 17, 2024 169   UC Davis W 79-65 86%     4 - 0 +10.4 +4.1 +5.8
  Nov 20, 2024 206   Norfolk St. W 78-64 90%    
  Nov 23, 2024 99   @ Santa Clara W 76-75 51%    
  Nov 26, 2024 89   Grand Canyon W 75-73 60%    
  Nov 30, 2024 294   Cal Poly W 84-66 96%    
  Dec 03, 2024 137   Utah Valley W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 104   @ California W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 17, 2024 230   Merrimack W 75-60 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 40   Oregon L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 01, 2025 49   @ Clemson L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 25   @ Pittsburgh L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 08, 2025 95   Virginia Tech W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 58   Virginia W 63-61 58%    
  Jan 15, 2025 73   @ Wake Forest L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 73-85 14%    
  Jan 22, 2025 37   Miami (FL) L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 79   Florida St. W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 92   Syracuse W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 68   @ SMU L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 05, 2025 73   Wake Forest W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 52   North Carolina St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 106   @ Georgia Tech W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 5   @ Duke L 66-80 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 104   California W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 133   Boston College W 76-66 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 68   SMU W 79-76 60%    
  Mar 05, 2025 56   @ Notre Dame L 67-71 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 46   @ Louisville L 72-77 34%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.4 2.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.6 0.3 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 4.0 0.9 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.2 1.8 0.1 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.6 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.2 0.0 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.3 0.2 5.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.1 14th
15th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.2 3.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.2 8.4 10.3 12.2 12.4 11.9 10.3 7.9 5.7 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 90.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1
17-3 62.4% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 27.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 7.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 99.7% 14.6% 85.1% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
16-4 1.8% 98.5% 11.9% 86.6% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
15-5 3.5% 93.7% 10.3% 83.4% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 93.0%
14-6 5.7% 80.5% 5.4% 75.1% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.1 79.4%
13-7 7.9% 62.0% 3.8% 58.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 3.0 60.5%
12-8 10.3% 40.6% 1.8% 38.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 0.1 6.1 39.5%
11-9 11.9% 23.0% 1.2% 21.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 22.1%
10-10 12.4% 10.0% 0.6% 9.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 11.1 9.4%
9-11 12.2% 2.7% 0.3% 2.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.8 2.4%
8-12 10.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.3%
7-13 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 4.1% 4.1
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.3% 1.8% 22.5% 8.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.8 6.0 0.6 0.0 75.7 22.9%