Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#88
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#77
Pace67.5#198
Improvement-1.6#267

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#76
First Shot+2.7#102
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#98
Layup/Dunks-0.8#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-2.2#289

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#107
First Shot+1.9#113
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#162
Layups/Dunks+1.4#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#34
Freethrows-2.2#323
Improvement+0.6#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 93.7% 57.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 7
Quad 22 - 44 - 11
Quad 37 - 111 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 315   Denver W 85-62 94%     1 - 0 +11.3 +8.1 +3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-53 96%     2 - 0 +12.4 +9.9 +5.3
  Nov 12, 2024 264   Northern Arizona W 90-64 90%     3 - 0 +18.0 +25.8 -4.1
  Nov 17, 2024 222   UC Davis W 79-65 87%     4 - 0 +8.2 +5.5 +2.3
  Nov 20, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 70-63 83%     5 - 0 +3.3 +1.7 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2024 60   @ Santa Clara W 71-69 28%     6 - 0 +14.3 +3.2 +11.1
  Nov 26, 2024 89   Grand Canyon L 71-78 52%     6 - 1 -1.2 -1.0 +0.3
  Nov 30, 2024 242   Cal Poly L 90-97 89%     6 - 2 -14.0 +4.7 -18.0
  Dec 03, 2024 125   Utah Valley W 77-63 74%     7 - 2 +13.5 +2.0 +10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 112   @ California W 89-81 52%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +13.8 +22.1 -7.8
  Dec 17, 2024 214   Merrimack W 74-68 86%     9 - 2 +0.8 +6.3 -5.2
  Dec 21, 2024 39   Oregon L 61-76 29%     9 - 3 -2.8 -4.8 +1.5
  Jan 01, 2025 23   @ Clemson L 71-85 14%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +4.1 +7.8 -3.8
  Jan 04, 2025 52   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 26%     9 - 5 1 - 2 -1.8 +3.9 -6.6
  Jan 08, 2025 128   Virginia Tech W 70-59 75%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +10.2 +2.8 +8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 93   Virginia W 88-65 64%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +25.7 +30.9 -1.3
  Jan 15, 2025 55   @ Wake Forest L 67-80 26%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +0.1 +6.2 -6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 40   @ North Carolina W 72-71 21%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +15.7 +9.2 +6.5
  Jan 22, 2025 152   Miami (FL) W 88-51 78%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +35.1 +8.7 +26.0
  Jan 25, 2025 82   Florida St. W 78-71 58%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +11.3 +11.2 +0.3
  Jan 29, 2025 108   Syracuse W 70-61 70%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +10.0 +2.5 +8.2
  Feb 01, 2025 37   @ SMU L 61-85 20%     15 - 7 7 - 4 -8.9 -5.3 -3.9
  Feb 05, 2025 55   Wake Forest L 73-79 43%     15 - 8 7 - 5 +2.0 +6.3 -4.2
  Feb 08, 2025 103   North Carolina St. W 74-73 67%     16 - 8 8 - 5 +2.7 +4.7 -1.9
  Feb 12, 2025 99   @ Georgia Tech L 52-60 46%     16 - 9 8 - 6 -0.6 -10.2 +8.7
  Feb 15, 2025 2   @ Duke L 70-106 4%     16 - 10 8 - 7 -9.9 +12.8 -24.8
  Feb 22, 2025 112   California W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 174   Boston College W 77-67 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 37   SMU L 75-79 38%    
  Mar 05, 2025 95   @ Notre Dame L 71-72 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 21   @ Louisville L 70-82 12%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 0.6 1.5 5th
6th 0.5 6.4 7.9 0.8 15.6 6th
7th 1.5 17.3 25.4 4.7 0.1 49.0 7th
8th 0.2 6.8 15.1 2.2 24.3 8th
9th 0.6 5.2 1.3 7.1 9th
10th 1.0 1.1 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.3 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.0 14.5 34.3 34.0 13.6 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.6% 10.4% 10.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 10.4%
12-8 13.6% 2.8% 0.4% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.2 2.4%
11-9 34.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 33.6 0.8%
10-10 34.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 34.1 0.2%
9-11 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 14.5
8-12 2.0% 2.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 11.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 98.9 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 27.3% 11.0 4.5 18.2 4.5
Lose Out 1.0%