Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#89
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#96
Pace77.1#18
Improvement+0.3#175

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#159
First Shot-0.6#196
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#108
Layup/Dunks+1.3#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#302
Freethrows+2.4#55
Improvement-1.8#276

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#54
First Shot+3.6#71
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#66
Layups/Dunks+1.5#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#113
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement+2.1#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.7% 52.7% 43.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 37.2% 42.8% 15.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round50.7% 52.7% 43.3%
Second Round6.9% 7.2% 5.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 38 - 39 - 6
Quad 415 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 96%     1 - 0 -4.6 +5.7 -10.8
  Nov 09, 2024 135   Western Kentucky W 74-72 75%     2 - 0 +0.8 -3.9 +4.5
  Nov 14, 2024 65   Arizona St. L 76-87 40%     2 - 1 -2.7 +3.8 -5.8
  Nov 20, 2024 222   UC Davis L 68-75 86%     2 - 2 -12.8 -6.9 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 91-73 82%     3 - 2 +14.3 +14.5 -0.4
  Nov 26, 2024 88   Stanford W 78-71 48%     4 - 2 +13.3 +2.5 +10.4
  Dec 03, 2024 207   Hawaii W 78-72 85%     5 - 2 +0.9 -2.4 +2.9
  Dec 14, 2024 44   Georgia L 68-73 29%     5 - 3 +6.6 +1.2 +5.5
  Dec 16, 2024 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-74 55%     5 - 4 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4
  Dec 19, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 74-51 98%     6 - 4 +4.7 -10.9 +13.9
  Dec 22, 2024 109   Saint Louis W 73-72 69%     7 - 4 +1.8 +1.6 +0.3
  Dec 28, 2024 314   San Diego W 68-55 91%     8 - 4 +3.9 -13.5 +16.4
  Dec 30, 2024 161   Bryant W 112-66 79%     9 - 4 +43.5 +11.8 +20.9
  Jan 04, 2025 282   Southern Utah W 82-71 91%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +1.8 +2.9 -1.6
  Jan 09, 2025 125   @ Utah Valley L 64-72 55%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -3.4 -4.2 +0.8
  Jan 16, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 88-58 85%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +24.8 +13.6 +10.2
  Jan 18, 2025 273   Tarleton St. W 88-64 91%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +15.1 +16.6 -1.1
  Jan 23, 2025 282   @ Southern Utah W 74-59 83%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +10.9 +0.4 +10.5
  Jan 25, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech W 79-66 83%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +8.5 +5.2 +3.7
  Jan 30, 2025 165   Seattle W 83-74 79%     15 - 5 6 - 1 +6.2 +4.5 +1.2
  Feb 01, 2025 125   Utah Valley W 75-57 73%     16 - 5 7 - 1 +17.5 +2.8 +14.5
  Feb 08, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 71-85 62%     16 - 6 7 - 2 -11.2 -7.4 -2.5
  Feb 13, 2025 273   @ Tarleton St. W 64-60 82%     17 - 6 8 - 2 +0.2 -3.5 +3.9
  Feb 15, 2025 205   @ Texas Arlington W 82-75 71%     18 - 6 9 - 2 +7.2 +5.0 +1.9
  Feb 22, 2025 158   California Baptist W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 205   Texas Arlington W 83-72 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 165   @ Seattle W 74-70 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 83-68 93%    
  Mar 08, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.1 14.1 20.9 37.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 6.7 21.2 26.8 7.3 62.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.8 6.8 23.3 40.9 28.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 74.1% 20.9    9.2 11.7
13-3 34.5% 14.1    3.3 10.8
12-4 9.1% 2.1    0.2 1.9
11-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 37.2% 37.2 12.8 24.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 28.2% 56.4% 56.4% 12.4 0.5 9.4 5.8 0.3 12.3
13-3 40.9% 51.6% 51.6% 12.9 0.0 5.7 12.0 3.3 0.1 19.8
12-4 23.3% 46.1% 46.1% 13.2 1.4 6.0 3.3 0.1 12.6
11-5 6.8% 40.5% 40.5% 13.5 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.1 4.0
10-6 0.8% 32.9% 32.9% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
9-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 50.7% 50.7% 0.0% 12.8 0.5 16.5 25.1 8.4 0.3 49.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.9% 100.0% 12.4 3.0 59.0 36.4 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0%