Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#89
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#102
Pace70.6#137
Improvement+0.4#129

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#71
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#56
Layup/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#295
Freethrows+1.6#102
Improvement-0.4#253

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#116
First Shot-0.3#189
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#51
Layups/Dunks+3.1#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#218
Freethrows+1.3#107
Improvement+0.8#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.6% 41.7% 30.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.8
.500 or above 96.4% 97.7% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 96.2% 91.7%
Conference Champion 51.8% 54.3% 40.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round39.5% 41.6% 30.5%
Second Round9.0% 9.9% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.7% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 39 - 7
Quad 413 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 90%     1 - 0 +1.4 +8.0 -7.2
  Nov 09, 2024 122   Western Kentucky W 74-72 72%     2 - 0 +1.8 -2.8 +4.5
  Nov 14, 2024 53   Arizona St. L 76-87 37%     2 - 1 -1.7 +4.0 -5.1
  Nov 20, 2024 169   UC Davis W 80-71 81%    
  Nov 22, 2024 206   Norfolk St. W 78-67 85%    
  Nov 26, 2024 67   Stanford L 73-75 40%    
  Dec 03, 2024 174   Hawaii W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 14, 2024 55   Georgia L 73-76 38%    
  Dec 16, 2024 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 19, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 86-64 97%    
  Dec 22, 2024 101   Saint Louis W 80-76 64%    
  Dec 28, 2024 298   San Diego W 82-69 88%    
  Dec 30, 2024 159   Bryant W 85-76 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 205   Southern Utah W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 09, 2025 137   @ Utah Valley W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 16, 2025 209   Abilene Christian W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 317   Tarleton St. W 82-65 94%    
  Jan 23, 2025 205   @ Southern Utah W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 30, 2025 136   Seattle W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 137   Utah Valley W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 181   @ California Baptist W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 317   @ Tarleton St. W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 181   California Baptist W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 84-75 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 136   @ Seattle W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 06, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 84-67 92%    
  Mar 08, 2025 209   @ Abilene Christian W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 8.3 13.6 13.6 9.5 3.8 51.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.9 7.4 7.0 3.0 0.5 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.9 0.3 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.2 10.2 13.5 16.0 16.6 14.2 9.5 3.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.8    3.8
15-1 100.0% 9.5    9.4 0.2
14-2 96.4% 13.6    12.1 1.5 0.0
13-3 81.6% 13.6    9.7 3.7 0.2 0.0
12-4 51.6% 8.3    3.7 3.6 0.9 0.0
11-5 19.5% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2
10-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 51.8% 51.8 39.3 10.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.8% 76.7% 71.5% 5.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 18.2%
15-1 9.5% 66.8% 65.0% 1.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 3.2 5.2%
14-2 14.2% 55.6% 55.4% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.6 1.7 0.2 6.3 0.6%
13-3 16.6% 49.5% 49.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.5 4.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.4 0.1%
12-4 16.0% 39.8% 39.8% 12.8 0.1 2.2 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.6
11-5 13.5% 30.8% 30.8% 13.2 0.0 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.4
10-6 10.2% 20.2% 20.2% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.1
9-7 7.2% 14.9% 14.9% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.1
8-8 4.4% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0
7-9 2.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
6-10 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-11 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 39.6% 39.2% 0.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 4.9 15.7 11.4 4.3 1.0 0.1 60.4 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 5.0 3.3 5.3 8.6 28.5 18.5 19.2 6.0 3.3 6.0 0.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 81.0% 7.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 19.0 9.5 4.8 9.5 19.0