Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#284
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#294
Pace69.0#171
Improvement+1.5#118

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#264
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#327
Layup/Dunks+0.7#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement+1.4#94

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#279
First Shot-2.1#243
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#303
Layups/Dunks-4.4#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#77
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+0.1#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 29.9% 11.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.9% 16.6% 34.6%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Home) - 15.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 101 - 16
Quad 47 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 70   @ Oregon St. L 57-80 6%     0 - 1 -12.4 -11.8 -0.7
  Nov 09, 2024 128   New Mexico St. L 63-75 26%     0 - 2 -12.5 -7.7 -5.0
  Nov 16, 2024 186   @ Wyoming L 69-86 20%     0 - 3 -15.4 -4.9 -9.9
  Nov 22, 2024 69   @ Utah L 53-84 6%     0 - 4 -20.2 -18.6 +1.1
  Nov 24, 2024 133   Cal St. Northridge L 79-89 20%     0 - 5 -8.2 +5.9 -13.8
  Nov 25, 2024 226   @ Montana L 66-69 28%     0 - 6 -3.9 -4.6 +0.5
  Nov 26, 2024 340   Denver W 68-54 67%     1 - 6 +2.5 -2.8 +7.1
  Nov 30, 2024 227   @ Portland St. L 68-71 28%     1 - 7 -4.0 -0.8 -3.3
  Dec 03, 2024 57   @ Boise St. L 64-87 4%     1 - 8 -10.5 +1.7 -14.2
  Dec 07, 2024 54   @ Utah St. L 62-92 4%     1 - 9 -17.0 -8.5 -7.4
  Dec 13, 2024 237   Weber St. L 71-73 50%     1 - 10 -9.1 +3.0 -12.3
  Dec 19, 2024 268   South Dakota W 92-87 57%     2 - 10 -3.8 +5.9 -9.9
  Dec 30, 2024 241   @ Florida International L 66-80 30%     2 - 11 -15.6 -10.1 -4.5
  Jan 09, 2025 201   Texas Arlington W 74-62 40%     3 - 11 1 - 0 +7.4 -0.1 +7.9
  Jan 11, 2025 262   Tarleton St. W 58-54 55%     4 - 11 2 - 0 -4.4 -9.9 +5.9
  Jan 16, 2025 150   @ Seattle L 62-82 16%     4 - 12 2 - 1 -16.3 -5.3 -11.9
  Jan 18, 2025 140   @ Utah Valley L 80-96 14%     4 - 13 2 - 2 -11.7 +11.6 -23.3
  Jan 25, 2025 83   Grand Canyon L 70-81 15%    
  Jan 30, 2025 262   @ Tarleton St. L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 201   @ Texas Arlington L 73-81 22%    
  Feb 06, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 240   @ Southern Utah L 71-76 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 172   @ California Baptist L 66-75 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 140   Utah Valley L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian L 67-72 30%    
  Feb 27, 2025 240   Southern Utah W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 172   California Baptist L 69-73 36%    
  Mar 06, 2025 83   @ Grand Canyon L 67-84 6%    
  Mar 08, 2025 150   Seattle L 68-73 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.6 0.2 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 6.4 3.4 0.4 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 9.4 5.2 0.4 17.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 10.0 7.3 0.8 20.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 8.7 8.2 1.2 0.0 20.2 8th
9th 2.4 7.3 6.8 1.3 0.0 17.8 9th
Total 2.4 9.3 17.6 21.8 20.8 14.1 8.5 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 62.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-5 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.4% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-6 1.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 1.2
9-7 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 3.6
8-8 8.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.4
7-9 14.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-10 20.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.7
5-11 21.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.8
4-12 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
3-13 9.3% 9.3
2-14 2.4% 2.4
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%