Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#212
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#247
Pace64.4#295
Improvement+0.7#141

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#161
First Shot-1.5#217
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#78
Layup/Dunks+0.5#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement+1.5#81

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#262
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#349
Layups/Dunks-2.7#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#110
Freethrows-2.4#327
Improvement-0.9#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 17.5% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.2 15.1
.500 or above 36.0% 63.9% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 82.1% 70.7%
Conference Champion 14.1% 21.4% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.3% 3.6%
First Four3.0% 1.4% 3.1%
First Round10.7% 17.1% 10.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 411 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 62   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 10%     0 - 1 -16.5 -13.6 -5.4
  Nov 13, 2024 59   @ Nevada L 58-88 9%     0 - 2 -17.7 -4.0 -16.4
  Nov 17, 2024 175   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 33%     0 - 3 -2.9 -3.7 +0.8
  Nov 22, 2024 71   UC Irvine L 87-93 25%     0 - 4 -1.5 +13.2 -14.2
  Nov 29, 2024 292   Bowling Green W 73-70 67%     1 - 4 -3.9 -3.5 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 199   Pepperdine W 68-53 47%     2 - 4 +13.2 -4.5 +17.8
  Dec 04, 2024 131   North Dakota St. L 73-77 45%     2 - 5 -5.3 +5.7 -11.5
  Dec 07, 2024 278   @ North Dakota L 75-80 53%     2 - 6 -8.3 +2.2 -10.8
  Dec 13, 2024 288   @ Utah Tech W 73-71 55%     3 - 6 -1.7 +8.2 -9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 146   Utah Valley L 62-64 50%     3 - 7 -4.6 +2.2 -7.1
  Dec 29, 2024 21   @ Oregon L 62-82 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 183   @ Northern Colorado L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 266   @ Northern Arizona W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 191   Montana W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 140   Montana St. L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 23, 2025 251   @ Portland St. L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 258   Idaho W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 03, 2025 266   Northern Arizona W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 140   @ Montana St. L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 191   @ Montana L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 71-60 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   Portland St. W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 258   @ Idaho L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 03, 2025 183   Northern Colorado W 77-75 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.8 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.5 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.9 3.4 0.3 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.8 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.2 8.2 10.6 12.9 14.0 13.8 11.6 8.5 5.6 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 97.2% 1.2    1.2 0.1
15-3 92.5% 2.7    2.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 73.3% 4.1    2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.1% 3.5    1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0
12-6 15.7% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 8.3 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 60.9% 60.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 43.9% 43.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
16-2 1.3% 35.7% 35.7% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8
15-3 2.9% 31.5% 31.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0
14-4 5.6% 25.2% 25.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 4.2
13-5 8.5% 20.8% 20.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 6.7
12-6 11.6% 16.9% 16.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.5 9.6
11-7 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.5 0.0 1.0 0.9 11.9
10-8 14.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 12.6
9-9 12.9% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0 11.9
8-10 10.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.4 10.1
7-11 8.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 8.0
6-12 5.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.8
4-14 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.3 4.9 88.1 0.0%