Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#301
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#302
Pace71.5#87
Improvement+0.6#154

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#292
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#354
Layup/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows-0.4#200
Improvement-1.0#230

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#282
First Shot-4.6#312
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#99
Layups/Dunks-2.9#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#233
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement+1.6#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.8% 21.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 72 - 8
Quad 49 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 280   @ Southern Miss L 68-77 36%     0 - 1 -13.1 -8.2 -4.3
  Nov 08, 2024 129   Davidson L 85-91 25%     0 - 2 -6.8 +2.6 -8.9
  Nov 16, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 72-86 1%     0 - 3 +6.8 +9.3 -2.3
  Nov 19, 2024 319   Niagara W 76-68 65%     1 - 3 -3.8 +5.4 -8.2
  Nov 23, 2024 340   @ Bellarmine L 68-80 55%     1 - 4 -21.1 -11.5 -10.0
  Nov 29, 2024 297   Weber St. L 70-73 49%     1 - 5 -10.6 -7.1 -3.5
  Nov 30, 2024 146   New Mexico St. W 61-60 21%     2 - 5 +1.8 -5.7 +7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 330   Morgan St. W 102-81 69%     3 - 5 +8.0 +11.3 -5.0
  Dec 14, 2024 245   @ UMKC L 77-85 29%     3 - 6 -10.2 +8.6 -19.2
  Dec 21, 2024 126   St. Thomas L 68-93 25%     3 - 7 -25.8 -17.3 -5.6
  Jan 03, 2025 102   Akron L 68-71 18%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -1.2 -7.8 +6.7
  Jan 07, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan W 83-79 40%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -1.4 +8.8 -10.1
  Jan 11, 2025 261   @ Ball St. L 69-91 32%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -24.9 -10.6 -13.3
  Jan 14, 2025 352   Buffalo W 79-61 77%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +2.3 +0.7 +1.7
  Jan 18, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan L 62-68 57%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -15.6 -14.9 -1.0
  Jan 21, 2025 171   @ Miami (OH) L 76-84 18%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -5.9 +0.3 -5.9
  Jan 24, 2025 221   Toledo L 71-84 42%     5 - 12 2 - 5 -18.8 -9.2 -9.5
  Jan 28, 2025 137   @ Kent St. L 57-75 14%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -14.2 -7.6 -8.2
  Feb 01, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan L 71-90 23%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -19.2 +3.2 -23.9
  Feb 04, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 84-77 74%     6 - 14 3 - 7 -7.4 +5.4 -12.8
  Feb 08, 2025 312   Coastal Carolina W 67-53 64%     7 - 14 +2.4 -11.3 +13.9
  Feb 11, 2025 172   Ohio L 81-86 32%     7 - 15 3 - 8 -8.1 -1.3 -6.4
  Feb 15, 2025 352   @ Buffalo W 63-59 61%     8 - 15 4 - 8 -6.6 -11.4 +4.9
  Feb 18, 2025 137   Kent St. L 84-91 26%     8 - 16 4 - 9 -8.3 +9.5 -17.6
  Feb 21, 2025 221   @ Toledo W 69-68 25%     9 - 16 5 - 9 +0.3 -6.4 +6.7
  Feb 25, 2025 291   @ Eastern Michigan L 74-77 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 261   Ball St. W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 07, 2025 302   Western Michigan W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 1.8 5th
6th 0.1 7.6 5.7 13.4 6th
7th 2.4 13.5 0.3 16.2 7th
8th 0.2 13.8 4.0 18.0 8th
9th 0.3 6.4 16.4 0.3 23.5 9th
10th 6.3 17.3 3.3 26.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.8 23.9 35.9 25.6 7.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 7.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 7.6
8-10 25.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 25.3
7-11 35.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 35.9
6-12 23.9% 23.9
5-13 6.8% 6.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 6.8%