Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#340
Expected Predictive Rating-19.1#363
Pace75.0#47
Improvement-0.3#210

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#317
First Shot-7.9#351
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#57
Layup/Dunks-1.6#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.1#362
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement-1.6#305

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#345
First Shot-6.2#348
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#163
Layups/Dunks-4.4#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
Freethrows-2.4#302
Improvement+1.3#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.8% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.8% 9.2% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 46.0% 54.7% 43.7%
Conference Champion 3.1% 4.7% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 5.1% 8.1%
First Four3.4% 4.5% 3.0%
First Round1.4% 2.2% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 48 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 358   Mercyhurst L 73-78 73%     0 - 1 -22.5 -6.8 -15.8
  Nov 09, 2024 181   @ Longwood L 66-84 11%     0 - 2 -15.9 -6.8 -8.5
  Nov 16, 2024 350   NJIT W 81-69 66%     1 - 2 -3.5 +1.4 -4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 303   @ N.C. A&T L 83-86 26%     1 - 3 -7.4 -2.4 -4.7
  Nov 22, 2024 330   @ Buffalo L 73-82 33%     1 - 4 -15.6 -2.7 -13.1
  Nov 24, 2024 147   Towson L 60-64 20%     1 - 5 -6.3 -9.3 +2.8
  Nov 27, 2024 296   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-92 25%     1 - 6 -27.1 -15.7 -8.8
  Dec 07, 2024 265   @ Bowling Green L 72-80 21%    
  Dec 10, 2024 66   @ Xavier L 66-89 2%    
  Dec 15, 2024 264   Campbell L 71-73 42%    
  Dec 22, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 62-94 0.1%   
  Dec 29, 2024 103   @ Minnesota L 58-77 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 305   South Carolina St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 06, 2025 274   NC Central L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 279   @ Howard L 73-81 23%    
  Jan 13, 2025 158   Norfolk St. L 70-78 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 363   Coppin St. W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 347   @ Delaware St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 305   @ South Carolina St. L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 17, 2025 274   @ NC Central L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 279   Howard L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 24, 2025 158   @ Norfolk St. L 67-81 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 03, 2025 347   Delaware St. W 77-73 64%    
  Mar 06, 2025 363   @ Coppin St. W 74-68 70%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.2 4.3 0.8 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.2 3.2 8.7 5.3 0.7 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.7 4.8 10.1 5.5 0.7 21.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.0 8.6 4.0 0.4 20.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.8 8th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.7 6.4 11.6 15.1 17.4 16.5 13.1 8.8 4.5 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
12-2 85.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2
11-3 54.2% 1.2    0.6 0.6 0.1
10-4 19.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-5 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.2% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.7% 17.3% 17.3% 16.0 0.1 0.6
11-3 2.3% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.4 1.9
10-4 4.5% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.4 4.1
9-5 8.8% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.6 8.2
8-6 13.1% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.7 12.4
7-7 16.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.6 15.9
6-8 17.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.4 17.1
5-9 15.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.9
4-10 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.5
3-11 6.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.3
2-12 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-13 0.7% 0.7
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%