Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.4#347
Expected Predictive Rating-13.7#342
Pace75.0#45
Improvement+1.3#111

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#279
First Shot-4.0#290
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#167
Layup/Dunks-0.4#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.4#363
Freethrows-1.4#273
Improvement+2.4#55

Defense
Total Defense-8.7#360
First Shot-9.1#363
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#138
Layups/Dunks-3.8#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#300
Freethrows-2.5#336
Improvement-1.1#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 54.0% 23.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 16.5% 6.8% 18.9%
First Four1.8% 2.2% 1.7%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Away) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 48 - 128 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 355   Mercyhurst L 73-78 66%     0 - 1 -21.8 -6.4 -15.4
  Nov 09, 2024 191   @ Longwood L 66-84 10%     0 - 2 -16.3 -8.2 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2024 359   NJIT W 81-69 67%     1 - 2 -5.1 +2.4 -7.5
  Nov 20, 2024 318   @ N.C. A&T L 83-86 28%     1 - 3 -9.3 -3.3 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 334   @ Buffalo L 73-82 32%     1 - 4 -16.5 -2.7 -14.0
  Nov 24, 2024 192   Towson L 60-64 22%     1 - 5 -8.4 -11.2 +2.6
  Nov 27, 2024 231   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-92 14%     1 - 6 -23.9 -15.0 -6.5
  Dec 07, 2024 275   @ Bowling Green L 81-102 19%     1 - 7 -24.2 -0.6 -21.8
  Dec 10, 2024 51   @ Xavier L 58-119 2%     1 - 8 -47.5 -11.5 -32.9
  Dec 15, 2024 261   Campbell W 86-76 36%     2 - 8 +1.3 +10.9 -9.5
  Dec 22, 2024 4   @ Iowa St. L 72-99 0.3%    2 - 9 -3.1 +6.8 -8.6
  Dec 29, 2024 108   @ Minnesota L 68-90 5%     2 - 10 -15.3 +4.1 -21.0
  Jan 04, 2025 224   South Carolina St. L 72-86 29%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -20.7 -5.2 -15.1
  Jan 07, 2025 310   NC Central W 102-98 2OT 46%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -7.3 +1.7 -9.8
  Jan 11, 2025 282   @ Howard L 78-87 20%    
  Jan 13, 2025 165   Norfolk St. L 72-81 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-75 69%    
  Feb 03, 2025 327   @ Delaware St. L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 224   @ South Carolina St. L 72-84 14%    
  Feb 17, 2025 310   @ NC Central L 74-81 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 282   Howard L 81-84 40%    
  Feb 24, 2025 165   @ Norfolk St. L 69-84 8%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 77-78 48%    
  Mar 03, 2025 327   Delaware St. W 80-79 52%    
  Mar 06, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 4.8 2.1 0.2 10.7 3rd
4th 0.5 6.5 8.6 3.2 0.3 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 7.6 10.4 3.2 0.1 22.1 5th
6th 0.4 7.0 10.6 3.0 0.2 21.3 6th
7th 0.5 5.0 7.8 2.1 0.1 15.4 7th
8th 0.5 3.0 3.4 1.1 0.0 8.0 8th
Total 0.5 3.5 8.8 16.7 20.9 20.3 15.3 8.8 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 71.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-4 13.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-5 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.0% 0.0
11-3 0.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-4 1.1% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.1 1.0
9-5 3.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.2 3.6
8-6 8.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.4 8.5
7-7 15.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 14.9
6-8 20.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 20.0
5-9 20.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 20.6
4-10 16.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.6
3-11 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
2-12 3.5% 3.5
1-13 0.5% 0.5
0-14
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%