NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#295
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#296
Pace66.0#255
Improvement-1.1#248

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#223
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#84
Layup/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#253
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement-0.7#236

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#334
First Shot-3.2#277
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#333
Layups/Dunks-5.0#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#72
Freethrows-1.6#298
Improvement-0.4#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.7% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 17.7% 21.4% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 80.5% 54.0%
Conference Champion 10.8% 13.0% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.0% 7.2%
First Four8.5% 9.1% 6.8%
First Round6.3% 7.1% 4.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Away) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 410 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 86   @ George Mason L 58-75 7%     0 - 1 -7.5 -5.3 -2.6
  Nov 08, 2024 230   Gardner-Webb L 82-88 48%     0 - 2 -12.7 +1.6 -14.1
  Nov 12, 2024 127   @ High Point L 60-76 14%     0 - 3 -11.3 -5.4 -8.5
  Nov 15, 2024 249   Georgia Southern L 75-80 40%     0 - 4 -9.6 -5.3 -3.9
  Nov 16, 2024 229   William & Mary W 78-76 37%     1 - 4 -1.7 -2.1 +0.4
  Nov 17, 2024 184   @ Winthrop L 75-77 20%     1 - 5 -0.2 +3.9 -4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 275   @ Georgia St. L 79-93 35%     1 - 6 -17.3 +11.3 -29.7
  Dec 05, 2024 215   Radford L 67-70 44%     1 - 7 -8.6 -10.2 +1.6
  Dec 07, 2024 230   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-77 27%     2 - 7 +0.3 +2.5 -2.3
  Dec 10, 2024 38   @ West Virginia L 45-79 3%     2 - 8 -19.3 -13.7 -9.8
  Dec 14, 2024 177   @ Longwood W 77-70 19%     3 - 8 +9.2 +7.2 +2.1
  Dec 20, 2024 177   Longwood L 67-82 37%     3 - 9 -18.8 -5.4 -13.8
  Dec 28, 2024 314   @ N.C. A&T L 72-85 43%     3 - 10 -18.3 -0.7 -18.3
  Jan 04, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 06, 2025 351   @ Morgan St. W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 13, 2025 327   Delaware St. W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 239   South Carolina St. W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 267   @ Howard L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 03, 2025 170   @ Norfolk St. L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 17, 2025 351   Morgan St. W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 358   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 24, 2025 327   @ Delaware St. L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 267   Howard W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 03, 2025 170   Norfolk St. L 70-74 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 239   @ South Carolina St. L 69-75 29%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.1 2.6 0.8 0.1 10.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.9 7.1 2.5 0.3 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 8.8 8.1 1.8 0.0 21.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 9.2 7.3 1.2 0.0 20.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 7.2 4.8 0.7 0.0 15.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 4.3 2.3 0.2 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.8 8.0 12.4 16.6 18.3 16.7 11.8 6.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
12-2 90.9% 2.6    1.8 0.8
11-3 61.2% 4.1    1.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
10-4 23.7% 2.8    0.5 1.3 0.8 0.1
9-5 3.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 5.1 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.1% 32.0% 32.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-1 0.8% 35.9% 35.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5
12-2 2.8% 24.8% 24.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.1
11-3 6.6% 22.6% 22.6% 15.9 0.1 1.4 5.1
10-4 11.8% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0 9.7
9-5 16.7% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4 14.3
8-6 18.3% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 1.7 16.6
7-7 16.6% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.9 15.7
6-8 12.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.6 11.8
5-9 8.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.3 7.7
4-10 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.7
3-11 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-12 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-13 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.0 89.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%