N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#321
Expected Predictive Rating-12.5#333
Pace80.1#9
Improvement-1.1#259

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#291
First Shot-2.9#261
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#260
Layup/Dunks-1.0#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#283
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement-0.6#237

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#322
First Shot-5.2#335
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#155
Layups/Dunks-5.8#352
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#129
Freethrows-0.5#225
Improvement-0.5#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 1.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.0% 14.6% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 37.0% 24.8% 37.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 0.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 81 - 14
Quad 47 - 98 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 86   @ Wake Forest L 64-80 5%     0 - 1 -6.5 -10.3 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2024 136   @ George Washington L 80-85 11%     0 - 2 -0.6 +3.1 -3.3
  Nov 17, 2024 355   @ The Citadel W 82-73 53%     1 - 2 -0.9 +4.9 -5.7
  Nov 20, 2024 348   Morgan St. W 86-83 72%     2 - 2 -12.2 -6.0 -6.5
  Nov 25, 2024 330   @ Buffalo L 81-82 42%     2 - 3 -7.9 -4.9 -2.9
  Nov 29, 2024 159   @ East Carolina L 69-93 14%     2 - 4 -21.2 -0.7 -20.9
  Dec 03, 2024 266   @ Hampton L 71-82 27%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -13.7 -5.0 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro L 55-67 28%     2 - 6 -15.1 -12.8 -3.4
  Dec 12, 2024 126   @ Virginia Tech L 67-95 10%     2 - 7 -22.7 -8.2 -12.2
  Dec 14, 2024 81   @ Liberty L 74-83 5%     2 - 8 +1.0 +6.0 -4.9
  Dec 17, 2024 268   Coastal Carolina L 68-73 49%     2 - 9 -13.7 -6.9 -6.9
  Dec 21, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 69-94 1%    
  Dec 28, 2024 276   NC Central W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 02, 2025 179   Elon L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 146   Drexel L 70-76 27%    
  Jan 09, 2025 219   Delaware L 82-85 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 222   @ William & Mary L 83-92 21%    
  Jan 16, 2025 272   Monmouth L 78-79 50%    
  Jan 20, 2025 266   Hampton L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 213   @ Towson L 65-75 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 307   @ Stony Brook L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 30, 2025 134   UNC Wilmington L 75-83 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 121   @ College of Charleston L 74-89 9%    
  Feb 08, 2025 295   @ Campbell L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 179   @ Elon L 71-82 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 121   College of Charleston L 77-86 22%    
  Feb 20, 2025 295   Campbell W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 307   Stony Brook W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 27, 2025 160   @ Northeastern L 71-83 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 151   @ Hofstra L 66-78 13%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.3 0.9 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.8 2.1 0.1 12.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.2 3.9 0.4 0.0 15.4 12th
13th 0.0 1.0 4.6 7.9 4.8 0.8 0.0 19.1 13th
14th 0.8 3.4 7.2 7.7 4.5 0.9 0.1 24.6 14th
Total 0.8 3.4 8.2 12.8 16.4 16.9 14.9 11.1 7.5 4.5 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 71.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 23.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 9.4% 9.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.0
9-9 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
8-10 7.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
7-11 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.1
6-12 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
5-13 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.9
4-14 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
3-15 12.8% 12.8
2-16 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.2
1-17 3.4% 3.4
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%