N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#323
Expected Predictive Rating-13.3#341
Pace77.6#19
Improvement-0.2#194

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#298
First Shot-3.8#286
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#238
Layup/Dunks-1.5#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#266
Freethrows-1.1#258
Improvement-1.8#281

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#311
First Shot-3.4#285
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#294
Layups/Dunks-4.9#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#95
Freethrows-0.8#245
Improvement+1.5#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.0% 48.7% 69.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 111 - 16
Quad 46 - 97 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 59   @ Wake Forest L 64-80 3%     0 - 1 -3.9 -9.3 +7.5
  Nov 12, 2024 119   @ George Washington L 80-85 9%     0 - 2 +0.4 +5.1 -4.3
  Nov 17, 2024 352   @ The Citadel W 82-73 53%     1 - 2 -1.2 +5.5 -6.7
  Nov 20, 2024 334   Morgan St. W 86-83 68%     2 - 2 -11.1 -6.8 -4.7
  Nov 25, 2024 329   @ Buffalo L 81-82 44%     2 - 3 -8.8 -4.3 -4.4
  Nov 29, 2024 164   @ East Carolina L 69-93 13%     2 - 4 -21.1 -0.7 -20.9
  Dec 03, 2024 256   @ Hampton L 71-82 26%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -13.6 -4.2 -9.0
  Dec 07, 2024 129   UNC Greensboro L 55-67 20%     2 - 6 -12.7 -13.1 -0.7
  Dec 12, 2024 137   @ Virginia Tech L 67-95 10%     2 - 7 -23.6 -10.1 -11.2
  Dec 14, 2024 92   @ Liberty L 74-83 5%     2 - 8 -0.1 +5.9 -5.8
  Dec 17, 2024 292   Coastal Carolina L 68-73 54%     2 - 9 -15.3 -9.3 -6.1
  Dec 21, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 67-95 3%     2 - 10 -14.2 -1.9 -10.5
  Dec 28, 2024 306   NC Central W 85-72 55%     3 - 10 +2.3 +9.8 -6.8
  Jan 02, 2025 158   Elon L 67-75 25%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -10.4 +0.0 -11.4
  Jan 04, 2025 193   Drexel L 59-68 31%     3 - 12 0 - 3 -13.1 -13.3 +0.0
  Jan 09, 2025 196   Delaware L 88-98 31%     3 - 13 0 - 4 -14.3 -4.4 -8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 189   @ William & Mary L 78-81 16%     3 - 14 0 - 5 -1.5 -3.4 +2.1
  Jan 16, 2025 267   Monmouth L 63-72 48%     3 - 15 0 - 6 -17.7 -11.6 -6.5
  Jan 20, 2025 256   Hampton L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 176   @ Towson L 64-75 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 141   UNC Wilmington L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 75-89 8%    
  Feb 08, 2025 252   @ Campbell L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 158   @ Elon L 68-80 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 127   College of Charleston L 77-86 21%    
  Feb 20, 2025 252   Campbell L 72-74 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 200   @ Northeastern L 72-82 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 174   @ Hofstra L 62-74 13%    
Projected Record 6 - 24 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.5 3.5 5.1 2.2 0.2 11.4 12th
13th 0.3 4.4 12.3 13.3 5.1 0.5 35.8 13th
14th 3.0 11.0 16.2 11.1 2.9 0.3 44.4 14th
Total 3.0 11.3 20.6 23.8 19.8 12.3 6.1 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
5-13 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 19.8% 19.8
3-15 23.8% 23.8
2-16 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.6
1-17 11.3% 11.3
0-18 3.0% 3.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%