N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.2 286
Expected Predictive Rating -7.5 289
Pace 71.8 92
Improvement +1.3 131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #272 D C D B+ D
Defense D+ #286 D+ B- F+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 271 55% 246 -2.8 280
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 41 38% 160 +3.1 43
Three Pointers 36% 276 30% 310 -4.3 319
1st FG Attempt 0.94 305 -4.0 305
Second Chance 29.9% 199 1.06 133 0.32 159
Turnovers 19.2% 313
Freethrows 0.36 31 75% 102 0.27 27
Total Offense -3.7 272

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 102 58% 177 -1.8 237
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 174 42% 306 -0.8 256
Three Pointers 38% 275 37% 323 -0.1 184
1st FG Attempt 1.07 269 -2.7 271
Second Chance 26.7% 55 1.02 174 0.27 75
Turnovers 13.2% 345
Freethrows 0.32 220 69% 39 0.22 179
Total Defense -3.5 286

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.2 321 +0.2 204
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 279 +2.4 277
Possession Length 17.5 197 16.3 30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 106 0.26 361
Improvement +1.5 #103 -0.2 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 72% 59% 82%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hampton (Neutral) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 90 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 8% -14  0% 0 - 1 D -11 D -5 C F C D+ -4 F+ D- B
 Mon, Nov 10 358 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 85% +14  87% 1 - 1 B- +5 F+ -9 F+ F+ F A +11 C+ A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 352 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 63% +4  84% 2 - 1 C- -5 C- -2 C B+ F C- -3 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 111 @Davidson L 74 - 90 10% -9  6% 2 - 2 D -9 B +6 A- D B- F -17 F F+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 168 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 18% -17  0% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -16 F D F C -0 F+ D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 339 @NC Central W 69 - 54 55% -1  30% 3 - 3 B- +6 F -13 F C- F A+ +19 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 237 Howard L 69 - 73 39% -8  0% 3 - 4 D -8 D+ -3 F A+ D- D+ -5 F A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 12 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 78% -2  33% 4 - 4 D- -12 C+ +2 C- A- D- F -15 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 302 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 42% +6  90% 5 - 4 C +1 D -4 F C- D B +6 B+ C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 113 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 24% +1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 C- F+ A- D+ -4 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 269 Northeastern L 74 - 85 57% -4  1% 5 - 6 0 - 2 F -20 D+ -3 F+ B- C+ F -18 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 213 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 24% -4  13% 5 - 7 0 - 3 C -1 A +11 D+ A+ D+ F -12 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 215 Elon L 64 - 69 45% -6  0% 5 - 8 0 - 4 D -11 F -16 F B+ F+ B +5 A B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 145 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 15% -7  5% 5 - 9 0 - 5 C- -4 B+ +7 A+ C+ F F+ -11 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 248 @Hampton L 61 - 82 30% -5  35% 5 - 10 0 - 6 F -23 D- -8 D- F B- F -17 D F F
 Thu, Jan 22 117 Hofstra W 79 - 78 25% -5  25% 6 - 10 1 - 6 C +1 B +7 C- A+ C+ D -6 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 172 Towson W 80 - 73 37% +4  60% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +3 B- +4 A+ D+ F C -1 D A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 208 @Monmouth L 81 - 83 OT 24% +2  60% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C- -2 C+ +3 F+ A+ D D+ -5 C+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 217 @Drexel L 60 - 61 24% -6  10% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C -1 D- -7 F+ F C B +6 B- D- D
 Thu, Feb 5 156 @College of Charleston L 62 - 78 17% -5  23% 7 - 13 2 - 9 D- -13 F -12 D- D+ F C -1 F+ A- B
 Sat, Feb 7 192 Campbell L 71 - 79 41% -6  3% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D- -13 F+ -9 D F A D+ -4 C+ F C-
 Fri, Feb 13 248 Hampton L 70 - 73 41%
 Thu, Feb 19 156 College of Charleston L 74 - 78 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 215 @Elon L 75 - 82 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 113 @UNC Wilmington L 67 - 81 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 145 William & Mary L 81 - 86 31%
 Tue, Mar 3 192 @Campbell L 77 - 85 22%
Totals 9 - 18 4 - 14 -7 D+ -4 D C D D+ -4 D+ B- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C D D+ 35% 28% 36% D D C C+ C D B+ B- B+ D+ C D D D+ 42% 21% 38% C- D+ B C B- F+ C- B C
1.03 55% 38% 30% -3 -1 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 19% .36 75% .27 1.14 58% 42% 37% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.0 .27 13% .32 69% .25
Nov
4		 South Carolina D A F B B- 35% 45% 20% F C F F F C A- C+ A- D+ C C- F F+ 38% 13% 49% D F+ C F D- B C A B-
0.95 68% 28% 36% 0 -3 0.95 19% 0.7 .14 16% .35 73% .25 1.20 60% 43% 42% +8 +1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 17% .33 71% .24
Nov
10		 South Carolina St. F+ C F F F 60% 10% 29% B+ F+ D+ F F+ F A+ C A+ A A- B+ F C 29% 42% 29% B C+ C+ A+ A A+ F A+ D-
1.05 62% 20% 21% -5 +3 0.98 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 73% .39 0.77 43% 30% 43% -4 -3 0.88 29% 0.6 .17 30% .49 50% .25
Nov
18		 Morgan St. C- B+ A+ D+ B- 29% 29% 42% F C D- A+ B+ F B A- A- C- D F A+ D- 41% 25% 34% D- D- A+ A+ A+ F A B A
1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38 1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19
Nov
28		 Davidson B D- B+ A+ A 32% 30% 39% D+ A- D- C D B- A+ D- A+ F D- F+ F F+ 51% 13% 36% F F D+ F F+ F F A+ F
1.12 50% 46% 47% +8 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33 1.36 65% 50% 44% +11 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33
Dec
2		 Charlotte F D- C+ F F 34% 24% 41% D+ F D- C D F A+ D- A+ C F A+ F F 41% 11% 48% D+ F+ B F D+ C+ C- B- C
0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36 1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25
Dec
6		 NC Central F D- B F F 38% 23% 40% D+ F C- C- C- F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% D A+ A A+ A+ D F B- F
0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49 0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36
Dec
9		 Howard D+ C- D+ F F 40% 32% 28% F F A+ B+ A+ D- D- B- D D+ C+ F F F 64% 9% 27% F F C A+ A+ C- F A- F
1.01 55% 31% 14% -12 -1 0.76 45% 1.2 .55 22% .28 73% .21 1.07 50% 75% 50% +5 +3 1.18 34% 0.2 .06 21% .52 68% .35
Dec
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ A F C C 31% 22% 47% D C- C+ A A- D- A+ A A+ F B F A+ D+ 35% 32% 33% B C- D F F F D D D-
1.18 71% 20% 33% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.4 .47 19% .67 82% .55 1.14 50% 61% 21% -2 -2 0.95 33% 1.2 .40 10% .27 76% .21
Dec
16		 UNC Greensboro D B- F D F+ 28% 28% 44% F+ F A F C- D B+ A+ A+ B A B- C+ B 26% 28% 46% B+ B+ D A- C+ F B A+ A+
1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27 1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17
Dec
29		 UNC Wilmington D+ F+ A- D+ C 32% 33% 35% D C- F A+ F+ A- A+ D A D+ A- D+ F D- 41% 20% 39% D- D- A- A+ A+ C+ F F+ F
1.03 50% 47% 30% -1 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25 1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43
Dec
31		 Northeastern D+ B- B+ F D- 33% 28% 40% F F+ B- C B- C+ A+ D+ A+ F C F F F 48% 24% 28% B- F C- D D+ F F B+ F
1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42 1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29
Jan
3		 Stony Brook A F C A+ C- 40% 33% 27% D- D+ A+ D+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F C- B+ F F 40% 17% 42% C- F A- F C F C+ F C-
1.22 43% 35% 50% 0 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31 1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19
Jan
8		 Elon F F B F F 22% 24% 55% D- F C+ A B+ F+ F A- F B A A+ D- A+ 56% 8% 36% D- A A D B- D- D- A+ C
0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13 1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22
Jan
15		 William & Mary B+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 24% 35% D A+ D- A+ C+ F A+ B A+ F+ C- D+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F A- F+ B F F B F
1.17 71% 58% 44% +16 0 1.33 24% 1.3 .32 24% .39 74% .29 1.27 63% 40% 53% +11 +3 1.31 20% 1.3 .27 13% .47 71% .33
Jan
19		 Hampton D- F F+ A+ D 41% 33% 25% F+ D- D F F B- F C+ F F F C B+ F+ 19% 42% 40% A+ D C F F F A F B-
0.95 48% 29% 46% -2 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .13 16% .24 69% .17 1.27 90% 36% 29% +2 -4 0.98 34% 1.2 .42 6% .26 88% .23
Jan
22		 Hofstra B D+ A+ F C+ 13% 39% 48% F C- A+ A- A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D C+ B D- C- 17% 30% 53% A C+ A+ B- A F D C+ D
1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46 1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25
Jan
24		 Towson B- A+ A+ B- A+ 40% 16% 44% B- A+ D+ C D+ F A+ C- A+ C D+ F A- D- 35% 29% 37% C D A+ A+ A+ D+ F C F
1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41 1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33
Jan
29		 Monmouth C+ C- C+ F F+ 51% 27% 22% C- F+ A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F A+ B- 44% 26% 30% D+ C+ C+ C+ B- F F F F
1.09 56% 38% 18% -6 0 0.90 41% 1.8 .72 22% .39 87% .34 1.12 52% 47% 24% -5 0 0.91 29% 1.0 .29 11% .38 84% .32
Jan
31		 Drexel D- D+ C- F F+ 35% 22% 43% C F+ F A- F C D+ A+ C+ B B+ B- D- B- 41% 24% 35% C B- B- F D- D A+ A+ A+
0.94 53% 36% 24% -9 -1 0.84 16% 1.2 .19 16% .28 87% .24 0.95 48% 33% 39% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 17% .04 0% .00
Feb
5		 College of Charleston F B- F C- D 23% 30% 47% D- D- C F+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ C F D+ B+ F 35% 31% 33% A- F+ A- B- A- B A+ B A+
0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28 1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Campbell F+ D+ C C- D 51% 33% 16% D+ D D- F F A B F D D+ A D+ D- B- 55% 11% 34% F+ C+ A- F F C- D- C- D-
1.01 57% 39% 33% 0 -1 1.00 25% 0.8 .20 13% .34 57% .20 1.13 46% 40% 38% -5 +3 0.98 27% 1.9 .52 17% .45 73% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.4 0.3 0.7 10th
11th 1.5 2.4 0.2 4.1 11th
12th 1.5 10.5 19.3 12.3 2.1 0.0 45.7 12th
13th 14.7 21.9 10.8 1.9 0.0 49.3 13th
Total 16.2 32.4 30.1 15.7 4.9 0.7 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.7% 0.7
6-12 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 15.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-14 30.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 30.0
3-15 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 32.4
2-16 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.6%