Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#110
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#92
Pace64.8#304
Improvement+3.2#32

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#124
First Shot+1.1#140
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#155
Layup/Dunks-0.9#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#131
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+3.2#14

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#104
First Shot+2.7#93
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#236
Layups/Dunks+3.3#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#171
Freethrows-1.1#264
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 23.5% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 97.9% 98.5% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 95.8% 86.9%
Conference Champion 32.3% 35.3% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.5% 23.4% 17.5%
Second Round2.6% 2.8% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 36 - 59 - 8
Quad 412 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 49 @Central Florida L 78-82 18%     0 - 1 +9.4 +6.7 +2.9
  Fri, Nov 7 165 @Iona L 73-81 54%     0 - 2 -5.4 -3.5 -1.4
  Fri, Nov 14 308 @Bucknell W 83-77 81%     1 - 2 +0.6 +4.2 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 19 151 @Temple L 76-81 51%     1 - 3 -1.5 +2.0 -3.5
  Fri, Nov 28 233 La Salle W 63-58 78%     2 - 3 +0.6 -7.2 +8.1
  Sat, Nov 29 263 Merrimack W 78-58 81%     3 - 3 +14.3 +7.1 +8.1
  Sun, Nov 30 240 @Penn W 77-60 70%     4 - 3 +15.4 +6.2 +10.0
  Wed, Dec 3 142 @Columbia L 70-72 48%     4 - 4 +2.2 +3.9 -1.8
  Sun, Dec 7 84 @Pittsburgh W 80-73 28%     5 - 4 +16.6 +22.0 -4.4
  Sat, Dec 13 75 @Syracuse W 70-69 25%     6 - 4 +11.6 +16.6 -4.8
  Sun, Dec 21 160 Quinnipiac W 74-66 74%     7 - 4 +5.0 +4.1 +1.2
  Mon, Dec 29 225 Campbell W 80-69 85%    
  Sat, Jan 3 274 @Drexel W 71-64 73%    
  Thu, Jan 8 128 @Towson L 65-66 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 224 Monmouth W 76-65 84%    
  Thu, Jan 15 246 @Stony Brook W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 166 Elon W 77-70 74%    
  Thu, Jan 22 301 @N.C. A&T W 75-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 118 @William & Mary L 76-78 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 169 College of Charleston W 75-68 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 224 @Monmouth W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Feb 5 205 Northeastern W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 128 Towson W 68-63 66%    
  Thu, Feb 12 169 @College of Charleston W 72-71 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 120 @UNC Wilmington L 68-70 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 238 Hampton W 74-63 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 205 @Northeastern W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 246 Stony Brook W 74-62 85%    
  Tue, Mar 3 274 Drexel W 74-61 87%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.2 8.0 9.1 6.6 2.8 0.6 32.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.6 7.7 6.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.7 3.8 0.9 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.5 8.7 12.4 15.1 16.1 15.1 11.3 6.9 2.9 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.2% 2.8    2.8 0.1
16-2 95.7% 6.6    5.8 0.8 0.0
15-3 80.6% 9.1    6.4 2.5 0.2
14-4 53.1% 8.0    4.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.3% 4.2    1.2 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.3% 32.3 20.8 8.7 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 50.8% 48.6% 2.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.3%
17-1 2.9% 45.7% 45.6% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.6 0.2%
16-2 6.9% 39.9% 39.9% 11.9 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.1
15-3 11.3% 33.2% 33.2% 12.2 0.3 2.4 1.0 0.0 7.5
14-4 15.1% 28.3% 28.3% 12.5 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.1 10.8
13-5 16.1% 23.7% 23.7% 12.7 0.0 1.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.3
12-6 15.1% 20.0% 20.0% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 12.1
11-7 12.4% 14.8% 14.8% 13.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.5
10-8 8.7% 10.5% 10.5% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 7.8
9-9 5.5% 6.7% 6.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.1
8-10 3.1% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
7-11 1.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 9.8 8.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 77.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.3 1.1 3.4 5.7 13.8 20.7 43.7 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 8.8% 11.0 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%