N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#299
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#224
Pace73.3#90
Improvement-0.6#229

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#326
First Shot-3.8#281
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#303
Layup/Dunks-4.2#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#329
Freethrows+3.1#38
Improvement-0.9#253

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#225
First Shot-4.5#317
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#35
Layups/Dunks-4.5#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#162
Freethrows-1.6#273
Improvement+0.3#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.1
.500 or above 11.1% 16.3% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 12.7% 7.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 42.5% 37.6% 47.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Neutral) - 52.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 87 @South Carolina L 72-91 7%     0 - 1 -9.9 -2.0 -6.5
  Mon, Nov 10 349 South Carolina St. W 85-62 77%     1 - 1 +7.5 -5.6 +10.0
  Tue, Nov 18 358 @Morgan St. W 79-73 63%     2 - 1 -5.0 +0.9 -5.8
  Fri, Nov 28 138 @Davidson L 74-90 13%     2 - 2 -11.4 +7.8 -20.2
  Tue, Dec 2 181 @Charlotte L 57-74 19%     2 - 3 -15.6 -12.6 -4.1
  Sat, Dec 6 350 @NC Central W 69-54 57%     3 - 3 +5.5 -8.2 +13.3
  Tue, Dec 9 313 Howard W 75-74 53%    
  Fri, Dec 12 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-61 75%    
  Tue, Dec 16 281 @UNC Greensboro L 72-76 35%    
  Mon, Dec 29 109 UNC Wilmington L 66-75 22%    
  Wed, Dec 31 228 Northeastern L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Jan 3 221 @Stony Brook L 68-75 26%    
  Thu, Jan 8 184 Elon L 76-79 39%    
  Thu, Jan 15 119 @William & Mary L 73-87 11%    
  Mon, Jan 19 208 @Hampton L 68-75 25%    
  Thu, Jan 22 139 Hofstra L 67-73 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 125 Towson L 65-72 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 207 @Monmouth L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 267 @Drexel L 67-72 32%    
  Thu, Feb 5 175 @College of Charleston L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 217 Campbell L 75-76 47%    
  Fri, Feb 13 208 Hampton L 69-73 35%    
  Thu, Feb 19 175 College of Charleston L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 184 @Elon L 73-82 21%    
  Thu, Feb 26 109 @UNC Wilmington L 63-78 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 119 William & Mary L 76-84 25%    
  Tue, Mar 3 217 @Campbell L 72-79 27%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.9 2.2 0.1 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.0 4.0 0.5 13.6 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.4 7.4 4.8 1.0 0.0 18.9 12th
13th 1.5 5.3 8.3 8.9 4.8 1.2 0.1 30.2 13th
Total 1.5 5.4 9.5 13.7 15.3 14.7 13.0 9.9 6.8 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 77.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 30.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 12.5% 12.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 12.2% 12.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 9.2% 9.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
9-9 4.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
8-10 6.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
7-11 9.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.9
6-12 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
5-13 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
4-14 15.3% 15.3
3-15 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
2-16 9.5% 9.5
1-17 5.4% 5.4
0-18 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%