Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
103 Hofstra 28.2%   19 - 10 12 - 6 +4.3      +2.0 116 +2.3 110 63.5 316 +3.1 116 +1.8 3
106 UNC Wilmington 29.8%   13   24 - 5 15 - 3 +4.1      +2.1 114 +2.1 119 63.6 310 +6.0 91 +6.8 1
139 William & Mary 7.2%   17 - 11 10 - 8 +1.2      +1.9 120 -0.7 198 80.8 5 +1.2 140 -1.3 6
143 College of Charleston 14.7%   20 - 10 14 - 4 +1.1      -0.4 171 +1.5 132 69.6 142 +3.0 119 +5.6 2
167 Towson 3.8%   15 - 14 9 - 9 -0.6      -3.2 254 +2.6 104 60.9 351 -0.7 169 -2.2 8
179 Monmouth 8.2%   16 - 14 11 - 7 -1.2      -1.9 226 +0.7 147 67.6 204 -1.5 186 +0.8 4
183 Campbell 2.4%   12 - 17 8 - 10 -1.7      +0.6 147 -2.2 242 72.9 63 -2.2 197 -2.9 9
214 Drexel 2.7%   15 - 15 10 - 8 -3.0      -4.8 299 +1.7 126 62.0 339 -3.0 217 -0.4 5
226 Stony Brook 1.5%   15 - 14 9 - 9 -3.7      -2.9 250 -0.8 204 65.4 263 -1.8 193 -1.9 7
242 Elon 0.6%   12 - 17 6 - 12 -4.5      +0.3 155 -4.8 314 67.3 213 -4.1 237 -6.0 11
263 Hampton 0.5%   11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.8      -4.4 285 -1.4 216 64.3 290 -6.2 261 -4.3 10
281 N.C. A&T 0.2%   9 - 18 4 - 14 -6.6      -2.1 230 -4.5 308 70.4 125 -6.8 273 -8.5 12
296 Northeastern 0.1%   6 - 23 2 - 16 -8.0      -1.5 206 -6.5 340 72.6 71 -9.4 314 -13.0 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 103 Hofstra 67 226 Stony Brook 58   
Sat, Feb 28 183 Campbell 67 167 Towson 71   
Sat, Feb 28 281 N.C. A&T 88 139 William & Mary 91   
Sat, Feb 28 263 Hampton 76 296 Northeastern 65   
Sat, Feb 28 242 Elon 57 179 Monmouth 73   
Sun, Mar 1 143 College of Charleston 79 106 UNC Wilmington 76   
Tue, Mar 3 214 Drexel 51 103 Hofstra 62   
Tue, Mar 3 226 Stony Brook 57 167 Towson 69   
Tue, Mar 3 179 Monmouth 89 296 Northeastern 83   
Tue, Mar 3 263 Hampton 85 139 William & Mary 94   
Tue, Mar 3 242 Elon 57 106 UNC Wilmington 76   
Tue, Mar 3 183 Campbell 90 281 N.C. A&T 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Mar 6 281 N.C. A&T 82 296 Northeastern 81 55%   
Sat, Mar 7 183 Campbell 76 226 Stony Brook 74 58%   
Sat, Mar 7 242 Elon 81 139 William & Mary 86 71%   
Sat, Mar 7 263 Hampton 61 167 Towson 66 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 1.0 100.0
College of Charleston 2.0 100.0
Hofstra 3.0 100.0
Monmouth 4.0 100.0
Drexel 5.0 100.0
William & Mary 5.0 100.0
Stony Brook 7.0 100.0
Towson 7.0 100.0
Campbell 9.0 100.0
Hampton 10.0 100.0
Elon 11.0 100.0
N.C. A&T 12.0 100.0
Northeastern 13.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 15 - 3 24 - 5 100.0
College of Charleston 14 - 4 20 - 10 100.0
Hofstra 12 - 6 19 - 10 100.0
Monmouth 11 - 7 16 - 14 100.0
Drexel 10 - 8 15 - 15 100.0
William & Mary 10 - 8 18 - 11 100.0
Stony Brook 9 - 9 15 - 15 100.0
Towson 9 - 9 16 - 14 100.0
Campbell 8 - 10 13 - 17 100.0
Hampton 7 - 11 11 - 19 100.0
Elon 6 - 12 12 - 18 100.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 10 - 18 100.0
Northeastern 2 - 16 6 - 24 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 100.0% 100.0
College of Charleston
Hofstra
Monmouth
Drexel
William & Mary
Stony Brook
Towson
Campbell
Hampton
Elon
N.C. A&T
Northeastern


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hofstra 28.2% 28.2% 0.0% 0.1 12.2 14.7 1.2 0.0 71.8 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 13   0.2 11.2 16.1 2.3 0.0 70.2 0.0%
William & Mary 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 4.6 0.9 0.0 92.8 0.0%
College of Charleston 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.9 8.4 5.1 0.3 85.3 0.0%
Towson 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.0 96.2 0.0%
Monmouth 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.4 3.3 4.3 0.2 91.8 0.0%
Campbell 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 97.6 0.0%
Drexel 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.3 97.3 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Elon 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Hampton 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Northeastern 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.2 98.9
2nd Round 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hofstra 28.2% 0.0% 28.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 29.8% 0.0% 29.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 14.7% 0.0% 14.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.4% 1.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%