William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#118
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#60
Pace84.0#6
Improvement+1.4#80

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#134
First Shot+2.8#107
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#274
Layup/Dunks+0.0#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#64
Freethrows-0.2#192
Improvement-0.7#243

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#110
First Shot+2.6#95
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#229
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#8
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement+2.1#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.0% 26.5% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.1 12.7
.500 or above 97.4% 99.3% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 95.8% 92.5%
Conference Champion 30.1% 37.0% 28.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round21.0% 26.4% 19.7%
Second Round2.3% 3.7% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 49 - 7
Quad 412 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 231 @Norfolk St. W 81-78 66%     1 - 0 +1.9 +3.6 -2.0
  Tue, Nov 11 104 @Richmond L 86-90 34%     1 - 1 +3.5 +8.3 -4.4
  Sat, Nov 15 13 @St. John's L 60-93 6%     1 - 2 -12.1 -12.0 +4.0
  Wed, Nov 19 119 @Bowling Green W 82-74 39%     2 - 2 +14.2 +5.5 +7.8
  Mon, Nov 24 241 UTEP W 74-63 77%     3 - 2 +6.5 -1.9 +7.8
  Tue, Nov 25 234 Abilene Christian W 92-58 77%     4 - 2 +29.6 +14.4 +13.0
  Sun, Nov 30 220 Old Dominion W 88-75 82%     5 - 2 +6.4 +0.7 +4.2
  Tue, Dec 2 135 @Duquesne W 83-79 44%     6 - 2 +8.7 +5.2 +3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 62 @George Washington L 83-92 20%    
  Thu, Dec 18 290 Radford W 92-79 89%    
  Mon, Dec 29 129 Towson W 76-72 63%    
  Wed, Dec 31 222 Stony Brook W 82-72 82%    
  Mon, Jan 5 180 @College of Charleston W 81-79 56%    
  Thu, Jan 8 205 @Monmouth W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 256 @Drexel W 78-72 69%    
  Thu, Jan 15 323 N.C. A&T W 88-73 92%    
  Thu, Jan 22 109 UNC Wilmington W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 136 Hofstra W 79-74 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 223 @Elon W 88-84 64%    
  Sat, Jan 31 224 Campbell W 88-78 81%    
  Thu, Feb 5 109 @UNC Wilmington L 75-79 36%    
  Sat, Feb 7 212 @Hampton W 79-76 62%    
  Thu, Feb 12 227 @Northeastern W 81-77 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 223 Elon W 91-81 81%    
  Thu, Feb 19 224 @Campbell W 85-81 64%    
  Thu, Feb 26 227 Northeastern W 84-74 82%    
  Sat, Feb 28 323 @N.C. A&T W 85-76 80%    
  Tue, Mar 3 212 Hampton W 82-73 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.1 7.1 8.7 6.5 3.1 1.0 30.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.2 7.7 6.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.6 4.1 1.1 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 5.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 6.2 8.7 12.2 14.5 15.3 14.4 10.9 6.8 3.1 1.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.6% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 95.8% 6.5    5.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 80.2% 8.7    6.0 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 49.2% 7.1    3.5 2.9 0.6 0.1
13-5 20.3% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.1% 30.1 20.0 7.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 57.3% 54.5% 2.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 6.1%
17-1 3.1% 44.4% 43.8% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 1.1%
16-2 6.8% 39.5% 39.4% 0.1% 12.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.1 0.2%
15-3 10.9% 32.8% 32.8% 12.2 0.3 2.2 1.0 0.1 7.3
14-4 14.4% 28.8% 28.8% 12.5 0.1 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.3
13-5 15.3% 21.4% 21.4% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 12.1
12-6 14.5% 17.6% 17.6% 13.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 12.0
11-7 12.2% 12.8% 12.8% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 10.7
10-8 8.7% 7.9% 7.9% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.0
9-9 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.9
8-10 3.5% 4.8% 4.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
7-11 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.0% 21.0% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 8.5 7.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 79.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.1 5.4 5.4 16.2 32.4 5.4 27.0 8.1