Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 #120
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #138
Pace 69.7 #160
Improvement -2.5 #295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #119 B D- B- B+ F
Defense #139 B- C- C B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #345 1.26 #79 -3.1 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #41 0.76 #173 +3.1 #48
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.19 #11 +3.7 #69
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #76 +3.6 #76
Freethrows 20.3 #62 75% #98 15.2 #49
Second Chance 26.2% #299 0.94 #313 0.25 #319
Turnovers 15.1% #96
Total Offense +1.9 #119

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #355 1.25 #291 +4.4 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #48 0.78 #219 -2.4 #334
Three Pointers 46% #58 0.90 #54 +0.3 #165
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #106 +2.3 #109
Freethrows 16.5 #122 69% #57 11.5 #93
Second Chance 28.5% #97 1.19 #333 0.34 #240
Turnovers 16.5% #179
Total Defense +0.8 #139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #339 -2.7% #21
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.6% #32 -1.9% #149
Possession Length 17.0 #136 17.3 #186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #40 0.16 #145
Improvement -2.0 #295 -0.6 #221

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.8 12.3
.500 or above 85.6% 95.7% 82.7%
.500 or above in Conference 34.8% 56.9% 28.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.3% 2.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 36 - 610 - 12
Quad 48 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 267 East Carolina W 87 - 72 86% +10  1 - 0 +6 +8 A- F B+ -3 C C C-
 Tue, Nov 11 138 William & Mary W 90 - 86 66% +1  2 - 0 +2 +9 F A+ B- -7 A- D F
 Wed, Nov 19 349 VMI W 87 - 54 94% +21  3 - 0 +18 +11 A+ F B+ +9 C D A+
 Sat, Nov 22 363 Gardner-Webb W 102 - 67 98% +28  4 - 0 +13 +12 B+ C- B -1 F B B
 Thu, Nov 27 165 Furman L 72 - 73 63% -6  4 - 1 -2 +1 B F F -2 C F A
 Fri, Nov 28 173 Charlotte W 71 - 66 64% +8  5 - 1 +4 -0 C+ D- D +4 A- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 82 @Belmont W 84 - 76 24% -0  6 - 1 +18 +10 A+ F B- +7 A+ D- B
 Sat, Dec 6 240 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 83% +4  7 - 1 +2 +4 C- C+ A+ -3 A- B- F
 Sat, Dec 13 146 Southern Illinois W 93 - 84 OT 68% +2  8 - 1 +7 +4 A+ F B+ +2 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 184 @Elon L 70 - 73 56% +2  8 - 2 -2 -2 B+ C F +0 C- A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 351 The Citadel W 80 - 56 95% +11  9 - 2 +8 +5 A- F B- +6 C B A+
 Sun, Dec 28 234 Charleston Southern L 72 - 77 82% -4  9 - 3 -12 -6 C- F D+ -6 B+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 31 72 George Washington L 85 - 99 42% -10  9 - 4 0 - 1 -9 +17 A+ D A+ -28 F F D+
 Sun, Jan 4 193 @Fordham W 83 - 75 58% +2  10 - 4 1 - 1 +9 +20 A+ C+ A+ -11 D+ F A
 Wed, Jan 7 136 @St. Bonaventure W 89 - 80 43% +7  11 - 4 2 - 1 +14 +17 B B- A- -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 159 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 67 71% -8  11 - 5 2 - 2 -5 -6 F F A+ +1 C B- D+
 Wed, Jan 14 197 La Salle W 74 - 53 78% +8  12 - 5 3 - 2 +15 +3 B F A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 28 @Saint Louis L 63 - 88 9% -19  12 - 6 3 - 3 -7 -1 F B B- -7 B- B F
 Wed, Jan 21 122 Rhode Island L 68 - 69 62% +2  12 - 7 3 - 4 -1 -2 A- F B +0 A+ C- B
 Sat, Jan 24 72 @George Washington L 77 - 85 23%
 Tue, Jan 27 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 73 - 84 16%
 Sat, Jan 31 137 Davidson W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 122 @Rhode Island L 70 - 73 39%
 Tue, Feb 10 86 George Mason L 72 - 73 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 55 Virginia Commonwealth L 76 - 81 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 137 @Davidson L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 136 St. Bonaventure W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 268 @Loyola Chicago W 78 - 72 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 73 Dayton L 71 - 73 42%
 Sat, Mar 7 118 @Duquesne L 78 - 81 39%
Totals 17 - 13 8 - 10 +3 +2 B D- B- +1 B- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.5 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 4.4 1.4 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.1 4.1 0.2 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 5.9 6.8 0.8 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.1 3.5 9.3 2.7 0.0 15.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 8.5 4.6 0.2 14.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 5.6 6.3 0.7 13.1 10th
11th 0.1 2.5 5.2 1.4 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.5 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.4 2.3 6.9 14.0 20.2 21.6 17.6 10.6 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 2.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.3% 12.0% 12.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.5% 7.9% 7.9% 11.4 0.1 0.0 1.4
11-7 4.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
10-8 10.6% 1.9% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-9 17.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 17.4
8-10 21.6% 0.7% 0.7% 12.4 0.1 0.1 21.4
7-11 20.2% 0.5% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1
6-12 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 6.9
4-14 2.3% 2.3
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 12.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%