Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.0 128
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 145
Pace 68.7 181
Improvement -3.6 324

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #111 B- D+ B- B D-
Defense C #181 B- D+ C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 353 62% 81 -3.7 308
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 50 39% 155 +2.9 49
Three Pointers 42% 154 38% 27 +3.4 70
1st FG Attempt 1.07 96 +2.6 97
Second Chance 26.5% 297 0.99 238 0.26 291
Turnovers 15.3% 83
Freethrows 0.33 118 77% 44 0.25 77
Total Offense +2.3 111

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 346 60% 232 +3.9 55
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 55 38% 164 -1.6 304
Three Pointers 44% 81 31% 68 +0.0 176
1st FG Attempt 0.97 99 +2.3 101
Second Chance 30.7% 190 1.16 331 0.35 291
Turnovers 16.7% 193
Freethrows 0.29 152 71% 97 0.21 132
Total Defense -0.4 181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.5 337 -1.1 28
Shot Type Accuracy +4.2 59 -1.2 129
Possession Length 17.2 161 17.3 187
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 59 0.16 140
Improvement -1.0 #245 -2.7 #309

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 77% 93% 71%
.500 or above in Conference 7% 20% 2%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Home) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 37 - 69 - 13
Quad 47 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 252 East Carolina W 87 - 72 83% +10  78% 1 - 0 B- +7 B- +5 B F B C+ +2 C B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 145 William & Mary W 90 - 86 65% +1  64% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 F A+ C C- -3 A- D+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 360 VMI W 87 - 54 96% +21  99% 3 - 0 A- +14 B +6 A- D- B- A +11 C+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 363 Gardner-Webb W 102 - 67 98% +28  97% 4 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 B+ C+ B C+ +1 F+ B- B-
 Thu, Nov 27 176 Furman L 72 - 73 61% -6  3% 4 - 1 C- -2 C- -2 B F+ F C -0 C- F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 168 Charlotte W 71 - 66 60% +8  96% 5 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 B- D- D+ B+ +7 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 78 @Belmont W 84 - 76 21% -0  53% 6 - 1 A +18 B +7 A+ F B- A +11 A+ D B-
 Sat, Dec 6 253 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 83% +4  83% 7 - 1 C +1 C +1 D+ B- A+ C -0 B B- F
 Sat, Dec 13 127 Southern Illinois W 93 - 84 OT 61% +2  64% 8 - 1 B +8 C+ +3 A F A B- +3 A F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 215 @Elon L 70 - 73 57% +2  63% 8 - 2 C- -3 D -5 B C+ F C+ +2 D A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 347 The Citadel W 80 - 56 94% +11  98% 9 - 2 B +9 C+ +3 B+ F B B+ +7 C C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 28 256 Charleston Southern L 72 - 77 84% -4  11% 9 - 3 D- -13 F+ -9 C- F C- D+ -4 B D- C-
 Wed, Dec 31 84 George Washington L 85 - 99 44% -10  0% 9 - 4 0 - 1 D -10 A+ +14 A+ D+ A+ F -26 F F D
 Sun, Jan 4 157 @Fordham W 83 - 75 47% +2  66% 10 - 4 1 - 1 B +11 A+ +19 A C+ A+ D- -8 D+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 134 @St. Bonaventure W 89 - 80 39% +7  93% 11 - 4 2 - 1 B+ +14 A +14 B- B A- C -0 A F F
 Sun, Jan 11 136 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 67 63% -8  0% 11 - 5 2 - 2 C- -3 D- -8 D- F+ A+ B +4 C+ B- D
 Wed, Jan 14 226 La Salle W 74 - 53 79% +8  94% 12 - 5 3 - 2 A- +15 C +1 B- F A+ A+ +15 A A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 22 @Saint Louis L 63 - 88 6% -19  0% 12 - 6 3 - 3 D+ -5 D+ -2 F+ B+ B- C- -3 B B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 116 Rhode Island L 68 - 69 58% +2  72% 12 - 7 3 - 4 C -1 D -5 B F+ B B- +4 A- C- B
 Sat, Jan 24 84 @George Washington L 69 - 85 23% -16  0% 12 - 8 3 - 5 D+ -6 C- -1 C- D- B- D -6 C F D+
 Tue, Jan 27 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 77 13% -8  0% 12 - 9 3 - 6 B- +6 A- +9 C- A+ B D+ -5 C B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 111 Davidson L 54 - 79 55% -17  0% 12 - 10 3 - 7 F -24 F+ -10 F A+ C+ F -20 D- F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 116 @Rhode Island L 77 - 82 35% +0  44% 12 - 11 3 - 8 C +1 B+ +8 B F A- D- -7 B+ F D-
 Tue, Feb 10 89 George Mason W 82 - 70 47% +17  96% 13 - 11 4 - 8 A- +15 B+ +8 A D B B+ +7 A+ F+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 76 - 82 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 111 @Davidson L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 134 St. Bonaventure W 78 - 75 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 277 @Loyola Chicago W 78 - 72 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 97 Dayton L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Mar 7 108 @Duquesne L 76 - 81 32%
Totals 16 - 14 7 - 11 +2 C+ +2 B- D+ B- C +0 B- D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C B+ B 30% 28% 42% D- B- D+ C- D+ B- B- B B C C- C B C+ 31% 25% 44% B+ B- C D- D+ C C+ B- C+
1.12 62% 39% 38% +4 -2 1.07 26% 1.0 .26 15% .33 77% .25 1.09 60% 38% 31% -1 -1 0.97 31% 1.2 .35 17% .29 71% .23
Nov
8		 East Carolina B- A+ A+ F B+ 37% 18% 45% C+ B F B F B A+ A- A+ C+ D F A+ C- 28% 32% 40% A C A+ F B- C F C F
1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46 0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36
Nov
11		 William & Mary B- F A+ F F 33% 8% 59% C+ F A+ A- A+ C A+ A- A+ C- F+ D A- B 17% 21% 62% A+ A- B F D+ F F D- F
1.16 47% 50% 27% -9 +1 0.86 45% 1.1 .51 19% .74 76% .56 1.11 70% 42% 28% -3 -2 0.93 23% 1.6 .35 9% .44 81% .36
Nov
19		 VMI B C A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% D- A- F C- D- B- D- F F+ A C F A C+ 26% 9% 65% C- C+ C+ F D- A+ F A+ C
1.32 63% 57% 50% +17 -1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 15% .25 64% .16 0.82 55% 50% 25% -8 +1 0.86 25% 1.2 .31 24% .40 50% .20
Nov
22		 Gardner-Webb A- A+ F+ A+ A 32% 29% 39% F B+ B- D+ C+ B C- C C- C+ F A+ F F 11% 36% 53% A+ F+ B+ D+ B- B- A B+ A-
1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -2 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20 0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12
Nov
27		 Furman C- B- D- C+ B- 41% 12% 47% A- B A- F F+ F A A+ A+ C F C+ B- D 26% 26% 49% A+ C- D- F F B+ F A+ C+
1.04 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.06 39% 0.5 .19 25% .33 88% .29 1.06 83% 42% 30% +5 -2 1.09 35% 1.3 .44 23% .40 43% .17
Nov
28		 Charlotte D+ C+ C B B- 36% 19% 45% C B- C- F D- D+ A+ F A+ B+ F D+ A+ A- 33% 11% 56% C B+ A+ D+ A+ F F B+ D
1.08 60% 38% 37% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 17% .62 59% .37 1.00 73% 40% 24% -3 +1 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 14% .42 67% .28
Dec
3		 Belmont B C- C A+ A+ 25% 33% 42% F A+ F C F B- B+ B+ A- A D+ A+ A A+ 38% 5% 56% D+ A+ B F D B- B+ A+ A+
1.14 54% 35% 59% +14 -3 1.25 10% 1.0 .10 16% .32 80% .26 1.03 67% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.6 .41 20% .26 47% .12
Dec
6		 Old Dominion C B- F D+ C- 49% 28% 23% D+ D+ C- A B- A+ B+ F C C F+ B A+ B+ 30% 27% 43% C+ B D+ A B- F C- F D+
1.14 64% 25% 31% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 9% .41 64% .26 1.02 67% 31% 23% -6 -1 0.87 28% 0.8 .23 9% .29 80% .23
Dec
13		 Southern Illinois C+ A+ A+ C- A+ 30% 30% 41% F+ A F A+ F A A- B A- B- A- B C+ B+ 27% 51% 22% A+ A F+ F+ F A+ F+ F F
1.06 72% 56% 32% +8 -2 1.15 6% 1.5 .09 15% .36 74% .27 0.96 50% 37% 31% -4 -5 0.85 36% 1.1 .40 25% .38 80% .31
Dec
17		 Elon D D B A+ A- 22% 26% 52% F+ B B+ D- C+ F F A+ C C+ C+ F F D 43% 12% 45% C+ D C A+ A+ B+ C+ B- C+
1.06 50% 42% 46% +9 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22 1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21
Dec
20		 The Citadel C+ A+ A+ D+ A 24% 22% 55% F B+ D F F B B C- B- B+ A- F C+ C- 31% 23% 46% B C C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.24 100% 64% 32% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.7 .19 12% .34 68% .23 0.87 47% 45% 32% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.9 .24 25% .14 57% .08
Dec
28		 Charleston Southern F+ D- F+ A+ C+ 29% 39% 31% F C- D F F C- A A+ A+ D+ F A+ A- B 31% 11% 58% C+ B F C D- C- F C+ F
1.00 47% 30% 44% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.2 .05 12% .46 86% .39 1.06 71% 17% 28% -3 +1 0.96 36% 0.9 .31 18% .39 65% .25
Dec
31		 George Washington A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 32% 22% 46% D+ A+ B F D+ A+ A A+ A+ F D+ F F F 34% 8% 58% B F C+ F F D B F D+
1.30 69% 36% 48% +13 -1 1.26 33% 0.8 .27 12% .36 81% .30 1.51 65% 100% 48% +20 +1 1.44 36% 1.9 .68 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
4		 Fordham A+ A- F A+ A+ 24% 44% 32% F A D A+ C+ A+ B+ A A- D- D- F A+ D- 27% 36% 38% A+ D+ F C+ F A- F B+ F
1.30 67% 23% 69% +12 -4 1.18 22% 1.4 .31 8% .31 78% .24 1.17 67% 56% 24% +3 -3 1.02 51% 0.9 .46 22% .48 67% .32
Jan
7		 St. Bonaventure A A+ C- C+ B 35% 29% 35% D- B- B- B+ B A- A+ C- A+ C A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D- A B- F F F A- A+ A
1.28 76% 36% 35% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 14% .50 77% .39 1.15 46% 60% 25% -7 +1 0.90 33% 1.6 .53 10% .21 62% .13
Jan
11		 Saint Joseph's D- F F+ B+ C- 9% 49% 42% F D- F C- F+ A+ B- C- B- B F A+ A- C+ 36% 18% 46% B- C+ A+ F B- D A+ A+ A+
0.93 40% 29% 38% -4 -6 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 10% .26 69% .18 0.96 70% 20% 27% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 16% .10 50% .05
Jan
14		 La Salle C F A+ A A- 30% 35% 35% F B- F B F A+ C- B C A+ A B A A- 16% 42% 42% A+ A A+ A A+ F+ A+ A+ A+
1.12 44% 58% 42% +7 -3 1.11 16% 1.2 .19 9% .23 71% .17 0.80 44% 35% 26% -8 -4 0.76 20% 0.8 .15 14% .16 56% .09
Jan
17		 Saint Louis D+ C+ F F+ D+ 17% 48% 35% F F+ D A+ B+ B- B- A B+ C- F F B+ C+ 33% 15% 52% A+ B D+ A+ B D- F+ D- F
0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29 1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30
Jan
21		 Rhode Island D B- B B+ B+ 31% 21% 48% D B F C F+ B C F D- B- C C+ A+ A 48% 17% 35% C- A- D- B- C- B F D- F
0.99 60% 40% 39% +5 -1 1.10 20% 1.0 .20 19% .34 58% .20 1.00 59% 38% 19% -7 +1 0.89 39% 0.9 .33 22% .48 77% .37
Jan
24		 George Washington C- F+ C A- C- 41% 26% 33% C- C- B- F D- B- D+ A+ B+ D C A+ F+ C 37% 7% 56% B- C B- F F D+ B F+ C+
1.03 50% 36% 39% -1 -1 0.98 32% 0.7 .22 16% .25 100% .25 1.27 60% 0% 40% +3 +2 1.11 34% 1.5 .53 16% .27 80% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Virginia Commonwealth A- D+ B+ D B- 30% 43% 28% F C- A- A+ A+ B D+ C D+ D+ A F F C 37% 10% 54% C C D A B- F+ F F F
1.14 50% 45% 31% -1 -3 0.94 38% 1.4 .53 15% .27 71% .19 1.27 47% 50% 41% +3 +1 1.10 39% 0.9 .35 12% .50 81% .41
Jan
31		 Davidson F+ B- F F F 19% 26% 55% D F C A+ A+ C+ B B B F D+ C+ F F 27% 35% 39% A+ D- F F F D+ A+ A+ A+
0.94 63% 27% 22% -12 -2 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 17% .34 69% .23 1.37 62% 41% 53% +13 -3 1.22 50% 1.3 .64 16% .08 50% .04
Feb
7		 Rhode Island B+ F A+ A A 21% 30% 49% F B F+ F F A- F A+ C- D- B- A+ B- A- 43% 19% 38% C+ B+ D+ F F D- F F F
1.13 45% 50% 42% +7 -3 1.11 23% 0.7 .16 18% .27 87% .23 1.21 56% 25% 31% -5 +1 0.93 35% 1.5 .52 16% .74 81% .60
Feb
10		 George Mason B+ A+ F A- A 28% 15% 57% B- A F+ B- D B A- A+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% D+ A+ F D+ F+ A F B+ F
1.17 73% 25% 39% +6 0 1.15 19% 1.0 .19 14% .32 84% .27 1.00 63% 25% 19% -9 +1 0.86 38% 1.1 .41 21% .54 67% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.5 5th
6th 0.6 2.5 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.9 1.8 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 1.0 6.9 0.8 8.8 8th
9th 0.3 7.3 6.7 0.1 14.3 9th
10th 0.3 7.7 16.9 2.1 27.0 10th
11th 0.1 3.3 13.6 5.1 0.0 22.2 11th
12th 1.2 7.5 5.5 0.3 14.5 12th
13th 1.3 1.5 0.3 3.0 13th
14th 0.2 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 2.7 12.6 27.4 30.7 19.3 6.5 0.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 11.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 6.5
8-10 19.3% 0.9% 0.9% 12.4 0.1 0.1 19.1
7-11 30.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 30.6
6-12 27.4% 0.3% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.3
5-13 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 12.6
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.9 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.1%