Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#142
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#156
Pace70.7#155
Improvement-1.1#271

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#139
First Shot+0.2#174
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#137
Layup/Dunks+5.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.2#365
Freethrows+1.3#118
Improvement-1.8#317

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#159
First Shot-0.3#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#139
Layups/Dunks+6.2#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#328
Freethrows+0.6#145
Improvement+0.7#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.1% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 54.9% 60.4% 33.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.8% 60.9% 45.8%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.8% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.1% 5.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round6.6% 7.0% 4.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 62 - 7
Quad 35 - 78 - 14
Quad 48 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 339 UMKC W 101-78 92%     1 - 0 +8.9 +14.6 -7.6
  Wed, Nov 12 105 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 28%     1 - 1 +2.3 +2.7 +0.2
  Mon, Nov 17 149 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 42%     1 - 2 -3.6 +6.6 -9.5
  Sun, Nov 23 287 Delaware W 79-59 78%     2 - 2 +13.1 +4.6 +9.1
  Mon, Nov 24 112 UAB L 73-81 41%     2 - 3 -4.3 +1.7 -6.0
  Wed, Nov 26 75 @Memphis L 58-74 19%     2 - 4 -5.4 -8.6 +3.2
  Sat, Nov 29 305 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 87%     3 - 4 -2.0 +4.1 -5.2
  Wed, Dec 3 93 @High Point W 86-84 25%     4 - 4 +10.3 +9.3 +1.0
  Wed, Dec 10 239 Tennessee Martin W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Dec 13 104 @Richmond L 72-78 28%    
  Thu, Dec 18 101 Illinois St. L 73-74 48%    
  Sun, Dec 21 124 @Bradley L 70-75 34%    
  Mon, Dec 29 113 @Murray St. L 78-83 31%    
  Thu, Jan 1 214 Valparaiso W 75-67 76%    
  Sun, Jan 4 88 @Belmont L 74-81 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 54%    
  Wed, Jan 14 128 Drake W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 88 Belmont L 77-78 44%    
  Wed, Jan 21 214 @Valparaiso W 72-70 55%    
  Sun, Jan 25 279 @Evansville W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 87 Northern Iowa L 66-68 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 204 Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 101 @Illinois St. L 70-77 28%    
  Fri, Feb 6 113 Murray St. W 81-80 52%    
  Mon, Feb 9 196 @Indiana St. W 78-77 52%    
  Thu, Feb 12 279 Evansville W 76-65 83%    
  Sun, Feb 15 124 Bradley W 73-72 55%    
  Wed, Feb 18 128 @Drake L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 87 @Northern Iowa L 63-71 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 196 Indiana St. W 81-74 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.1 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.8 2.0 0.2 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.4 2.3 0.3 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.7 4.1 1.6 0.2 11.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 2.8 2.7 1.1 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.7 8.2 10.3 12.0 13.1 12.1 10.6 8.7 6.0 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 97.9% 0.3    0.3
17-3 90.8% 0.8    0.7 0.2
16-4 72.6% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.1
15-5 50.0% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.3
14-6 17.2% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
13-7 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 29.0% 22.6% 6.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.3%
18-2 0.3% 35.4% 35.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
17-3 0.9% 31.7% 31.7% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-4 2.2% 23.4% 23.4% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7
15-5 3.9% 21.7% 21.7% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.0
14-6 6.0% 16.0% 16.0% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 5.0
13-7 8.7% 12.2% 12.2% 12.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.6
12-8 10.6% 8.0% 8.0% 13.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.7
11-9 12.1% 6.6% 6.6% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 11.3
10-10 13.1% 3.9% 3.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.6
9-11 12.0% 3.3% 3.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.6
8-12 10.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.1 0.0 10.2
7-13 8.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.1
6-14 5.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.6
5-15 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 93.4 0.0%