Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.4 206
Results Rating -3.3 224
Consistency 0.16 231
Pace 67.9 196
Improvement -3.3 304

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 161 C C- B C- C-
Defense C- 250 C- B- D C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 329 C 59% 156 -3.2 297
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 206 B 43% 48 +1.4 104
Three Pointers 46% 80 C- 33% 224 +1.9 116
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 259 C +0.6 146
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 166
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 287 B- 1.11 78 C- 0.29 215
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.2% 153
Other Turnovers A- 5.5% 19
Turnovers B 14.7% 62
Freethrows C 0.30 195 C- 70% 249 C- 0.21 211
Total Offense C +0.0 161

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 255 C 11.0% 181
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 290 B- 3.5% 74
Three Pointers B- 87% 112 C+ 0.8% 159
Total C- 53% 224 B- 4.7% 76


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 D+ 61% 270 -3.3 75
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 104 A- 32% 18 -0.6 141
Three Pointers 46% 39 D- 38% 341 +5.5 352
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 60 D+ +2.4 278
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 235
Second Chance C 30.2% 183 B 0.94 50 B- 0.28 97
Turnovers from Steals D 7.4% 322
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 166
Turnovers D 14.7% 304
Freethrows C+ 0.29 162 B- 70% 72 C+ 0.21 131
Total Defense C- -2.5 250

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 200 C- 10.1% 208
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 79 C 5.1% 150
Three Pointers B- 80% 67 D 0.2% 328
Total C- 57% 206 D+ 4.4% 275

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 214 17.1 136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 251 0.18 201
Consistency 0.14 299 0.13 249
Improvement +0.0 185 -3.3 324

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 217 205 189
Results Rating Rank 239 234 205
Conference Record 6 - 14 6 - 14 6 - 14
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 71 - 9
Quad 34 - 105 - 19
Quad 45 - 110 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 316 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 75% +0  51% 1 - 0 C- -4 D -5 C F B- C+ +1 C+ A F
 Thu, Nov 6 158 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 52% -2  20% 1 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -3 F D+ A+ C -1 D- B A
 Fri, Nov 14 250 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 70% -5  22% 1 - 2 D -10 D- -7 F B+ B+ C- -3 D+ A- F+
 Mon, Nov 17 143 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 27% +5  69% 2 - 2 B+ +13 C -0 C+ D- F A+ +13 A- A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 59 LSU L 62 - 71 13% -9  1% 2 - 3 C +1 F+ -10 D- F A+ A +10 B- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 148 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 37% +5  86% 3 - 3 B +11 A+ +16 B+ A+ A+ D -5 C- B F
 Tue, Dec 2 364 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  98% 4 - 3 A+ +29 A+ +34 A+ A+ B- C+ +0 C A F
 Fri, Dec 5 123 UAB L 69 - 74 41% -2  7% 4 - 4 D+ -5 D+ -3 F+ C- A C- -2 B- D- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 131 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 45% -9  3% 4 - 5 D+ -6 A +14 A+ F C+ F -20 F D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 125 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 22% -5  17% 4 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C- -0 D B- C D+ -3 A D F
 Sun, Dec 21 295 @Evansville W 66 - 65 60% +2  61% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 C- D+ D B- +3 A F C
 Mon, Dec 29 99 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 33% -8  13% 5 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -14 F D+ B+ C- -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 200 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 61% -0  41% 6 - 7 2 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 A C+ C+ D- -8 C+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 113 @Bradley L 66 - 93 20% -20  3% 6 - 8 2 - 3 F -21 F -10 D+ F C F+ -9 F+ C- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 68 Belmont L 76 - 78 22% +11  91% 6 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +4 D+ -3 A+ F F B+ +6 A+ D- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 121 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 21% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 4 B +9 C +0 D- B+ B- A +8 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 115 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 20% -7  0% 7 - 10 3 - 5 C -1 C +0 C F A+ C -1 B+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 125 Murray St. W 101 - 90 42% +5  80% 8 - 10 4 - 5 B +11 B+ +8 C A+ A+ C+ +2 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 200 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 38% +5  95% 9 - 10 5 - 5 A- +15 C- -2 C- F B+ A+ +16 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 295 Evansville W 82 - 78 79% -6  6% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -7 B +6 C D A+ F -12 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 113 Bradley L 73 - 87 39% -8  12% 10 - 11 6 - 6 D- -14 C+ +3 D C+ A+ F -18 F F+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 68 @Belmont L 90 - 103 10% -8  6% 10 - 12 6 - 7 C -1 A+ +17 A+ A+ C+ F -19 F D- F
 Fri, Feb 6 99 @Illinois St. L 76 - 86 16% -12  0% 10 - 13 6 - 8 C- -2 B- +4 C C B D -5 D C D
 Mon, Feb 9 155 Valparaiso L 76 - 81 51% +0  50% 10 - 14 6 - 9 D+ -8 C+ +4 D- A- A+ F -12 F F B-
 Thu, Feb 12 115 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 80 40% -4  11% 10 - 15 6 - 10 D -10 C +1 B- C- B F -12 D+ A F
 Sun, Feb 15 89 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 86 14% -11  12% 10 - 16 6 - 11 F+ -15 C- -1 B- D- B+ F -16 F C- F+
 Wed, Feb 18 121 Southern Illinois L 61 - 66 41% +1  53% 10 - 17 6 - 12 D+ -5 F+ -10 D D+ C- B +5 B+ A C+
 Wed, Feb 25 155 @Valparaiso L 71 - 74 29% +3  76% 10 - 18 6 - 13 C +0 B- +5 B+ B C D -5 F C+ B
 Sun, Mar 1 89 Northern Iowa L 53 - 75 29% -9  10% 10 - 19 6 - 14 F -19 F -11 F A F F -10 B- F F
 Thu, Mar 5 121 Southern Illinois L 69 - 74 30%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -2 C +0 F C C- C- -2 C- C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B C- C 33% 36% 46% C- C D+ B- C- B C C- C- C- D+ A- D- D+ 31% 23% 46% B C- C B B- D C+ B- C+
1.09 59% 43% 33% +1 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .29 15% .30 70% .21 1.12 61% 32% 38% +2 -1 1.05 30% 0.9 .28 15% .29 70% .21
Nov
3		 Northern Arizona D C- A+ C C 46% 15% 38% C+ C C F F B- A C A- C+ A+ A+ F B 49% 20% 31% F+ C+ F A+ A F A- A A
1.11 58% 63% 35% +4 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27 1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11
Nov
6		 Robert Morris D+ D F F+ F 42% 20% 38% C F C+ F D+ A+ A+ B- A+ C F+ C- D F+ 36% 22% 41% C D- D A+ B A A+ F B-
1.06 52% 18% 29% -10 0 0.84 30% 0.8 .24 11% .48 78% .38 1.09 67% 38% 38% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 23% .14 100% .14
Nov
14		 SIU Edwardsville D- F F F+ F 29% 20% 51% C F D A+ B+ B+ F F F C- F D+ A D- 18% 31% 51% A- D+ D A+ A- F+ A A+ A
0.97 43% 30% 28% -11 -1 0.80 28% 1.5 .41 13% .15 50% .08 1.00 89% 40% 28% +2 -3 1.00 32% 0.6 .18 15% .17 56% .10
Nov
17		 College of Charleston C B- F B- B- 26% 21% 53% C C+ D D- D- F B- F D+ A+ F A A- B- 13% 44% 42% A+ A- F+ A+ A C- B- A+ A-
1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14 0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21
Nov
28		 LSU F+ F A+ F F+ 32% 14% 54% B- D- F D F A+ F A D- A C+ F A A- 62% 4% 35% F B- A+ A+ A+ F C A+ B+
0.91 44% 50% 27% -9 0 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 10% .21 77% .16 1.04 59% 50% 28% -2 +4 1.06 15% 0.6 .09 10% .36 64% .23
Nov
29		 Georgia Tech A+ C+ B- C B- 57% 11% 33% A+ B+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D D+ A+ F C- 40% 21% 40% D+ C- B+ C B F C- A+ A+
1.29 58% 40% 33% 0 +3 1.07 29% 1.7 .48 9% .46 74% .34 1.14 62% 18% 43% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .30 9% .30 39% .12
Dec
2		 Western Illinois A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% D+ A+ D A+ A+ B- F A+ D C+ B+ F A+ D+ 23% 42% 35% A+ C C A+ A F F B- D-
1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20 0.89 45% 45% 24% -6 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23
Dec
5		 UAB D+ D+ F B F+ 36% 24% 40% C- F+ D+ B- C- A B- C+ B- C- F A- A+ C 36% 36% 28% A+ B- F+ C D- A- F D- F
1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20 1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37
Dec
13		 North Dakota St. A A+ F A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ D- F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F C A- F F 21% 23% 55% B F A+ F D+ F F+ A D+
1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44 1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21
Dec
18		 Murray St. C- A+ C F C- 26% 45% 30% F D C+ B- B- C A+ C+ A+ D+ C A+ C+ A 35% 15% 50% C A C F+ D F F F F
1.08 75% 38% 21% -1 -4 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 16% .41 74% .30 1.21 59% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.92 32% 1.3 .41 7% .50 84% .42
Dec
21		 Evansville D- C B+ C- D+ 35% 18% 47% B- C- D C D+ D F+ F F B- A C+ A A 22% 36% 42% A A F F F C F C F
1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09 0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois St. F D+ D+ F F 26% 30% 44% D F F A+ D+ B+ C+ F C- C- F A F F 25% 18% 58% C+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ C B C+
0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19 1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19
Jan
4		 Indiana St. B- D+ A+ B+ A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A C- B- C+ C+ F F F D- D+ A+ C+ B- 39% 5% 57% C- C+ F F F B+ F F F
1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07 1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33
Jan
7		 Bradley F F F A- D+ 24% 22% 55% C D+ F F F C A+ F B+ F+ C+ F D- F+ 33% 21% 46% C F+ B+ F C- D- F A- D-
0.89 42% 27% 39% -2 -1 0.96 15% 0.5 .08 19% .46 61% .28 1.25 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .29
Jan
10		 Belmont D+ D D- A+ A+ 19% 13% 67% C A+ F+ F F F D+ F D- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% B- A+ F A D- B- F F F
1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16 1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32
Jan
14		 Southern Illinois C B+ A+ F F+ 27% 19% 54% C- D- D- A+ B+ B- A+ B- A+ A D A A+ A+ 32% 31% 37% B+ A+ C A+ B+ F D B- D+
0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28 0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22
Jan
17		 Illinois-Chicago C F A+ F+ C+ 25% 25% 49% F+ C F+ F+ F A+ C+ F D- C A A+ C- B+ 28% 23% 50% B+ B+ C+ D- D+ F F A+ F
1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18 1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42
Jan
21		 Murray St. B+ A B- D- B 28% 54% 18% F C D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F F A+ C 32% 20% 48% B C+ A A A+ D F B+ D-
1.23 69% 42% 30% +4 -5 1.00 30% 1.7 .51 11% .56 78% .44 1.10 79% 50% 24% +2 0 1.05 24% 0.9 .22 13% .42 70% .30
Jan
24		 Indiana St. C- A+ F F+ C 30% 24% 46% D C- F+ F F B+ A+ D- A A+ F C+ A+ B- 33% 17% 50% A B B A+ A+ A+ D- A C-
1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25 0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18
Jan
28		 Evansville B A+ A D+ C+ 18% 22% 60% D C D+ D- D A+ A+ C- A+ F F D+ F F 23% 37% 40% A F B A+ A+ D B+ A+ A
1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47 1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Bradley C+ A+ A+ F C- 17% 38% 45% F D B D+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F F B+ F+ C A B- A
1.12 75% 56% 19% 0 -4 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 12% .46 81% .37 1.34 43% 20% 70% +14 -2 1.27 40% 0.9 .37 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
3		 Belmont A+ D A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C A+ B A+ A+ C+ C C C F F C+ F F 34% 14% 53% B F B F D- F A- A+ A+
1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21 1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12
Feb
6		 Illinois St. B- D- A D+ C+ 33% 31% 35% D+ C C+ D+ C B B- C+ B- D F+ A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D C C C D D- A+ C+
1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23 1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19
Feb
9		 Valparaiso C+ D+ A+ F D- 34% 22% 44% C- D- C A+ A- A+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F+ F F B- F B F
1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 -1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15 1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32
Feb
12		 Illinois-Chicago C D+ F A- B- 33% 17% 50% C B- F A+ C- B C A B- F D A- F F+ 30% 37% 33% A+ D+ B- A+ A F C+ F F+
1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24 1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29
Feb
15		 Northern Iowa C- D- A+ C C 48% 6% 46% A+ B- F+ D+ D- B+ B+ F C+ F F F F F 33% 15% 52% B- F B- F C- F+ B- F D
0.94 48% 67% 32% -5 +3 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 15% .31 65% .20 1.31 71% 63% 41% +13 0 1.29 19% 1.4 .26 11% .22 92% .20
Feb
18		 Southern Illinois F+ C+ D F D 32% 23% 45% C- D D+ D D+ C- D- F F B B+ A+ F A- 35% 24% 42% C B+ C- A+ A C+ C A+ B
0.86 59% 33% 25% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.9 .23 20% .23 46% .11 0.93 53% 8% 39% -6 -1 0.89 31% 0.5 .17 17% .29 59% .17
Feb
25		 Valparaiso B- A+ C B- A- 40% 25% 35% C- B+ C+ A- B C F+ D+ F+ D C- A- F F 21% 30% 49% B- F C B C+ B B- F C-
1.12 74% 33% 35% +6 0 1.13 32% 1.1 .36 17% .25 69% .17 1.16 60% 29% 48% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 17% .32 82% .27
Mar
1		 Northern Iowa F D B F F 19% 16% 65% D F A+ C+ A F D+ C+ D+ F D- A+ D C+ 34% 25% 42% A B- C F F F B D- C+
0.84 50% 43% 21% -13 -1 0.74 39% 0.9 .37 24% .23 73% .17 1.19 67% 23% 36% +1 -1 1.02 22% 1.9 .41 10% .21 75% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 100.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.3 99.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8%
Lose Out 69.5%