Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#199
Pace62.9#339
Improvement+2.9#26

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#144
First Shot+2.2#117
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#261
Layup/Dunks+1.0#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#113
Freethrows-0.7#224
Improvement+2.7#18

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#123
First Shot-1.6#227
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#22
Layups/Dunks-0.1#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#305
Freethrows+3.3#23
Improvement+0.2#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 9.4% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 66.1% 73.0% 49.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.4% 70.8% 59.3%
Conference Champion 9.4% 10.6% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.1% 4.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.5% 9.4% 6.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 69 - 11
Quad 47 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 251 Northern Arizona W 77-71 76%     1 - 0 +1.0 +2.9 -1.9
  Thu, Nov 6 186 Robert Morris L 79-81 OT 75%     1 - 1 -6.7 -0.7 -5.9
  Fri, Nov 14 230 SIU Edwardsville L 59-61 81%     1 - 2 -9.0 -6.5 -2.8
  Mon, Nov 17 175 @College of Charleston W 71-62 53%     2 - 2 +10.7 -0.7 +11.5
  Fri, Nov 28 31 LSU L 62-71 15%     2 - 3 +4.6 -2.9 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 29 135 Georgia Tech W 84-74 53%     3 - 3 +11.8 +21.7 -9.1
  Tue, Dec 2 361 Western Illinois W 108-57 96%     4 - 3 +33.5 +36.6 +1.9
  Fri, Dec 5 110 UAB L 69-74 57%     4 - 4 -4.3 -1.9 -2.5
  Sat, Dec 13 155 North Dakota St. W 71-65 70%    
  Thu, Dec 18 111 @Murray St. L 73-77 35%    
  Sun, Dec 21 265 @Evansville W 69-64 68%    
  Mon, Dec 29 92 Illinois St. L 68-69 48%    
  Sun, Jan 4 198 Indiana St. W 76-68 77%    
  Wed, Jan 7 115 @Bradley L 66-70 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 90 Belmont L 71-72 49%    
  Wed, Jan 14 143 @Southern Illinois L 70-72 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 71-69 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 111 Murray St. W 76-74 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 198 @Indiana St. W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Jan 28 265 Evansville W 72-61 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 115 Bradley W 69-67 57%    
  Tue, Feb 3 90 @Belmont L 69-75 28%    
  Fri, Feb 6 92 @Illinois St. L 66-72 29%    
  Mon, Feb 9 211 Valparaiso W 71-62 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 204 Illinois-Chicago W 74-66 76%    
  Sun, Feb 15 98 @Northern Iowa L 60-66 31%    
  Wed, Feb 18 143 Southern Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 211 @Valparaiso W 68-65 59%    
  Sun, Mar 1 98 Northern Iowa W 63-62 51%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.7 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.9 5.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.9 5.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.5 1.9 0.2 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.3 1.4 0.2 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.9 8.5 10.7 12.5 13.1 12.2 10.4 8.0 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-3 93.9% 1.5    1.3 0.2
16-4 75.7% 2.5    1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 47.7% 2.6    1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 19.4% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 5.3 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 35.2% 33.3% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8%
18-2 0.5% 37.7% 37.7% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.6% 31.6% 31.6% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
16-4 3.3% 24.3% 24.3% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5
15-5 5.5% 21.1% 21.1% 12.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.4
14-6 8.0% 14.9% 14.9% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.8
13-7 10.4% 13.1% 13.1% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.1
12-8 12.2% 9.8% 9.8% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.0
11-9 13.1% 7.1% 7.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 12.2
10-10 12.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.9
9-11 10.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.4
8-12 8.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.1 0.1 8.4
7-13 5.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.8
6-14 3.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 91.5 0.0%