Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.0 311
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 298
Pace 62.3 337
Improvement -2.7 292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #215 C D- C+ D- C-
Defense D- #349 D- D C- C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 56% 215 -0.5 194
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 93 35% 292 +0.8 129
Three Pointers 37% 271 37% 39 -0.2 185
1st FG Attempt 1.02 175 +0.0 169
Second Chance 23.4% 346 0.98 242 0.23 338
Turnovers 16.6% 158
Freethrows 0.26 305 67% 337 0.18 333
Total Offense -1.8 215

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 60% 238 -2.7 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 322 40% 241 +1.6 65
Three Pointers 43% 118 39% 348 -4.1 334
1st FG Attempt 1.12 334 -5.1 335
Second Chance 33.7% 309 1.08 264 0.36 305
Turnovers 16.2% 222
Freethrows 0.29 128 73% 250 0.21 144
Total Defense -7.2 349

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 257 +0.8 322
Shot Type Accuracy +0.5 153 +4.1 326
Possession Length 19.2 338 17.2 176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 310 0.16 155
Improvement +3.1 #46 -5.8 #361

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 79% 61% 85%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 102 - 14
Quad 46 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 177 Drake L 71 - 77 22% -0  37% 0 - 1 D+ -7 D -5 D+ F A+ C- -2 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  2% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -13 D+ F+ F B +6 C B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 265 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 50% +0  54% 1 - 2 C- -3 C +1 B C- C+ D+ -5 F+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 41% +7  94% 2 - 2 C +0 C+ +2 D+ A+ B C- -2 B C F
 Wed, Dec 3 193 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 35% -6  17% 2 - 3 F -18 F -15 F+ D- D- D+ -4 B+ D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 146 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 12% -1  26% 2 - 4 C+ +3 D- -7 D+ D- C+ A +10 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 69 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 4% -12  2% 2 - 5 D- -14 F -20 F F C+ B- +4 C B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 216 @San Diego L 69 - 78 20% -6  5% 2 - 6 D -9 D+ -4 C+ C- F D -6 F+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 284 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 54% +0  43% 3 - 6 C- -2 F+ -9 F+ D+ B- B+ +8 C+ A B+
 Sun, Dec 21 255 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 26% -10  3% 3 - 7 F -26 F -10 B- F F F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 170 @Montana L 64 - 78 14% -4  15% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 D -4 D+ C+ F D- -8 F B- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 162 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 14% -7  13% 3 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- D A- F+ -9 F D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 232 Weber St. L 65 - 78 42% -5  8% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F -20 F+ -8 F+ C- A- F -13 D F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 250 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 46% -2  39% 3 - 11 0 - 4 D -10 B- +4 D A+ D F -14 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 254 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 26% -1  50% 3 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -16 D -5 C+ F F+ F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 142 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 11% -5  26% 3 - 13 0 - 6 D+ -7 F -10 C+ F D C+ +2 B- D C
 Mon, Jan 19 170 Montana L 72 - 98 30% -12  6% 3 - 14 0 - 7 F -30 B +6 A+ F A F -39 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 175 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 31% +2  69% 4 - 14 1 - 7 C +0 A +12 A+ B+ C- F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 229 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 41% +12  99% 5 - 14 2 - 7 C -1 A+ +19 B+ A A+ F -19 D F C
 Sat, Jan 31 189 Idaho L 62 - 79 34% -15  0% 5 - 15 2 - 8 F -22 F -11 D+ D+ D+ F -12 F B+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 250 @Idaho St. W 79 - 73 25% +4  74% 6 - 15 3 - 8 C+ +4 A+ +14 A+ F A+ D- -9 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 232 @Weber St. L 53 - 72 22% -7  27% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -20 F -15 F+ F B- D- -9 D- F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 142 Portland St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 254 Sacramento St. L 78 - 79 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 175 @Northern Colorado L 70 - 81 15%
 Thu, Feb 26 189 @Idaho L 68 - 78 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 229 @Eastern Washington L 71 - 79 22%
 Mon, Mar 2 162 Montana St. L 68 - 74 30%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 C- -2 C D- C+ D- -7 D- D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D+ B C 39% 25% 37% C- C D- C- D- C+ D D- D- D- C- C- F+ D- 42% 16% 43% D D- D D+ D C- C+ C- C+
1.06 56% 35% 37% +1 -1 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 17% .26 67% .18 1.19 60% 40% 39% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.1 .36 16% .29 73% .19
Nov
3		 Drake D F F A+ D- 49% 20% 31% B+ D+ C F F A+ F F F C- C F C- D 46% 15% 38% F D- F A+ A+ C D- D+ D-
1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11 1.11 58% 63% 35% +5 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Arizona F D+ F C+ D+ 40% 37% 23% C+ D+ B- F F+ F F B F B C A+ F C+ 34% 18% 48% D+ C B- C+ B- A C F D+
0.69 48% 21% 33% -11 -2 0.77 26% 0.4 .09 24% .13 71% .09 1.18 65% 22% 46% +8 0 1.18 38% 0.9 .35 20% .37 81% .30
Nov
24		 Cal Poly C C- A A B+ 39% 21% 39% D+ B D+ C C- C+ A+ F A- D+ D- A+ D+ F+ 43% 2% 55% D- F+ B+ C+ B C- A- D+ A-
1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27 1.10 65% 0% 36% +5 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19
Nov
26		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ C C C- C- 49% 26% 26% D+ D+ D+ A+ A+ B B- D+ C+ C- C A+ A+ A 59% 7% 34% F B C C C F A+ A+ A+
1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31 1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11
Dec
3		 South Dakota St. F C- C+ F F+ 33% 24% 43% D+ F+ F B- D- D- B F D+ D+ B B+ B A- 37% 12% 51% D B+ D+ F+ D- C F D+ F
0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20 1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31
Dec
6		 North Dakota St. D- A F A- C 34% 38% 28% F D+ D- D D- C+ F C- F A B+ D+ B- B 27% 37% 37% A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ D- A+ C-
0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10 0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20
Dec
9		 Arizona St. F A- F F F 31% 20% 49% C F F F F C+ F A+ D- B- F A+ C+ C- 38% 25% 38% B C C A B+ A D- A C-
0.74 67% 20% 21% -11 -1 0.80 11% 0.5 .06 20% .19 90% .17 1.12 78% 25% 33% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 20% .42 68% .29
Dec
13		 San Diego D+ A+ D+ B B 26% 34% 40% F C+ D+ C+ C- F D- A+ C D D- B F F+ 33% 20% 47% C- F+ D+ F F B+ F C- F
1.04 75% 38% 37% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.1 .36 26% .28 86% .24 1.17 67% 33% 43% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.7 .54 21% .46 75% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Utah F+ F+ D- A+ F+ 51% 31% 18% C- F+ F+ B+ D+ B- B D- C+ B+ A B F B- 54% 21% 25% D- C+ B+ A+ A B+ C B+ C+
1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19 0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16
Dec
21		 Incarnate Word F B- F A+ B 41% 22% 37% D B- F F F F C+ F F F C C F F 34% 15% 51% D- F F+ D- F F F B- F
0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19 1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33
Jan
1		 Montana D F+ C+ C+ C- 34% 28% 38% D D+ C B- C+ F C B C D- F A F F 39% 14% 47% C- F B- B- B- C- B- F C
0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21 1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23
Jan
3		 Montana St. C+ C+ C+ A+ A- 37% 42% 21% F B- D C- D A- F+ F F F+ A- F F F+ 29% 13% 58% F+ F D- D+ D- D- C F D-
1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13 1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24
Jan
8		 Weber St. F+ C- C+ F F 43% 11% 47% B F+ D- A C- A- C- F D F B A F D 44% 7% 48% D D C- F F+ F A+ A+ A+
1.04 60% 40% 23% -7 +2 0.91 24% 1.4 .32 13% .31 65% .20 1.24 50% 25% 42% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.2 .41 8% .12 43% .05
Jan
10		 Idaho St. B- C- F F F+ 60% 14% 26% A D B+ A+ A+ D A+ C A+ F F F C- F 41% 20% 39% B- F F C F A- F F F
1.23 56% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38 1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34
Jan
15		 Sacramento St. D D A+ B- C+ 48% 17% 35% C C+ C- F F F+ F+ B- D F A+ C F D+ 37% 21% 42% D- D C F F F C F D-
1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19 1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30
Jan
17		 Portland St. F F+ C A B- 40% 26% 35% D+ C+ F F F D F+ F F C+ B+ A+ C+ B+ 47% 9% 45% F+ B- D- C D C F+ A- D
0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21 1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24
Jan
19		 Montana B A+ F B A 40% 4% 56% A A+ F F F A C F D+ F F F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F F F F F C D C-
1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18 1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24
Jan
24		 Northern Colorado A A+ C A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F A+ F A+ B+ C- C+ D+ C+ F D D+ F F 26% 26% 48% A F F B+ F A+ A F B+
1.30 73% 40% 53% +16 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26 1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13
Jan
29		 Eastern Washington A+ F+ A- A+ B 55% 8% 37% A- B+ D- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ F D+ 51% 10% 39% F D F B- F C F D- F
1.42 48% 50% 56% +7 +3 1.22 27% 2.0 .54 8% .47 93% .43 1.33 52% 20% 47% +3 +2 1.12 49% 1.0 .49 19% .53 79% .42
Jan
31		 Idaho F D B+ D+ D+ 40% 27% 33% C D+ D- B D+ D+ D+ F F+ F F D- D F 43% 13% 44% D- F A+ C- B+ D A+ D- A+
0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20 1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 40% C- A+ F A+ F A+ D D D- D- F B+ C+ D- 52% 7% 41% F F+ A F F F C C- C
1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20 1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23
Feb
7		 Weber St. F C- F C D- 27% 25% 48% F F+ D- F F B- C+ F D D- C+ F D D 56% 7% 37% F D- F D F D+ F C+ F
0.90 58% 27% 33% -3 -1 0.93 23% 0.5 .11 15% .34 59% .20 1.23 54% 67% 38% +2 +3 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 15% .52 69% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.4 1.6 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.6 4.3 1.9 6.8 8th
9th 0.8 7.9 15.6 8.6 0.4 33.3 9th
10th 15.8 26.7 12.9 1.3 56.7 10th
Total 16.6 34.6 29.1 14.6 4.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 14.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.6
5-13 29.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.0
4-14 34.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 34.5
3-15 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.4%