Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.4 #217
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #229
Pace 71.5 #107
Improvement -2.3 #285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #198 C C C B- A-
Defense #246 C D C- C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.12 #225 +4.0 #56
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #308 0.54 #362 -3.9 #344
Three Pointers 39% #234 1.04 #149 -0.7 #201
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #203 -0.7 #202
Freethrows 20.5 #49 69% #280 14.2 #99
Second Chance 32.1% #142 1.00 #242 0.32 #171
Turnovers 16.7% #189
Total Offense -1.2 #198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.27 #310 -4.2 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #242 0.74 #148 +1.1 #110
Three Pointers 40% #216 0.90 #51 +2.9 #72
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #187 -0.2 #187
Freethrows 18.7 #239 72% #149 13.4 #229
Second Chance 30.2% #157 1.20 #337 0.36 #288
Turnovers 15.7% #225
Total Defense -2.2 #246

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #25 1.1% #270
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #241 -0.5% #173
Possession Length 17.0 #141 17.2 #169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #85 0.16 #146
Improvement -1.6 #276 -0.7 #229

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.3% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 27.8% 46.7% 21.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 83.3% 56.4%
Conference Champion 1.8% 5.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four1.7% 1.1% 1.9%
First Round5.9% 7.9% 5.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 411 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 104 @Utah L 89 - 92 OT 16% +3  0 - 1 +5 +2 F A+ D +4 A+ F C
 Wed, Nov 12 39 @Utah St. L 73 - 83 5% -4  0 - 2 +6 +5 F A+ A- +1 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 123 @UC Irvine L 70 - 79 20% -8  0 - 3 -4 -3 F D- C +0 D+ A C
 Wed, Nov 19 190 Campbell W 91 - 85 56% +5  1 - 3 +1 +10 A+ C C -9 A- F C
 Sat, Nov 22 156 Texas Arlington L 73 - 74 48% -0  1 - 4 -4 +6 B- A C -10 F C- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 353 UMKC W 82 - 61 88% +10  2 - 4 +5 +4 A+ F F +2 D A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 321 Oral Roberts W 92 - 66 82% +17  3 - 4 +13 +9 A+ D- A +3 C- A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 131 @St. Thomas L 65 - 88 22% -18  3 - 5 -18 -6 F D+ F -12 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 10 353 @UMKC W 64 - 60 74% +3  4 - 5 -6 -17 F C- F +10 A+ C- B+
 Wed, Dec 17 107 @Utah Valley L 74 - 90 16% -9  4 - 6 -9 +10 D+ A- A+ -20 F F C
 Sat, Dec 20 233 Utah Tech L 80 - 82 64% -1  4 - 7 -9 +8 A+ F C- -17 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 153 Portland St. L 90 - 95 OT 47% -0  4 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +4 C- C- A+ -11 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 290 Sacramento St. W 95 - 82 75% +10  5 - 8 1 - 1 +3 +8 C+ B+ C -6 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 315 @Northern Arizona W 78 - 65 62% +5  6 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +10 C B A+ -2 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 185 @Northern Colorado W 76 - 71 33% +1  7 - 8 3 - 1 +6 +6 B D C- +0 A+ F C
 Thu, Jan 15 243 Eastern Washington W 91 - 80 66% +1  8 - 8 4 - 1 +3 +7 C B- C -4 B F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 183 Idaho L 67 - 75 55% -9  8 - 9 4 - 2 -13 -15 F B+ F +3 B+ D- A+
 Thu, Jan 22 161 @Montana L 65 - 81 28% -2  8 - 10 4 - 3 -13 -2 A F F -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 152 @Montana St. L 70 - 77 26%
 Sat, Jan 31 219 Idaho St. W 77 - 74 61%
 Mon, Feb 2 290 @Sacramento St. W 82 - 81 54%
 Thu, Feb 5 185 Northern Colorado W 79 - 78 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 315 Northern Arizona W 79 - 70 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 183 @Idaho L 73 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 243 @Eastern Washington L 78 - 80 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 152 Montana St. L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 161 Montana L 78 - 79 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 219 @Idaho St. L 74 - 77 40%
 Mon, Mar 2 153 @Portland St. L 70 - 77 26%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3 -1 C C C -2 C D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 3.2 1.5 0.2 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.0 2.8 0.2 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 4.0 9.7 4.9 0.5 19.2 4th
5th 0.2 3.9 11.0 6.2 0.7 0.0 22.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 8.8 5.4 0.4 17.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.5 4.6 0.5 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.2 11.5 18.1 21.0 19.3 13.1 6.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 69.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 33.1% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.6% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.5
13-5 2.5% 16.5% 16.5% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.1
12-6 6.9% 11.8% 11.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 6.1
11-7 13.1% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 11.8
10-8 19.3% 8.6% 8.6% 15.3 0.0 1.1 0.6 17.7
9-9 21.0% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.1 1.1 19.8
8-10 18.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 17.4
7-11 11.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.2
6-12 5.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.2
5-13 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.3 93.5 0.0%