Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.8 #39
Expected Predictive Rating +12.1 #47
Pace 68.6 #192
Improvement -1.0 #238

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #30 A- A+ B- B- A
Defense #67 B+ C A+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #19 1.27 #74 +6.9 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #333 0.78 #138 -3.0 #320
Three Pointers 42% #168 1.09 #83 +1.8 #119
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #42 +5.8 #42
Freethrows 19.0 #118 73% #162 13.9 #118
Second Chance 38.5% #15 1.25 #12 0.48 #6
Turnovers 15.2% #98
Total Offense +8.5 #30

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.04 #51 +4.6 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #78 0.69 #86 -0.5 #211
Three Pointers 42% #142 0.99 #139 +0.0 #180
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #59 +4.1 #60
Freethrows 18.7 #236 73% #206 13.6 #244
Second Chance 31.8% #238 1.00 #116 0.32 #176
Turnovers 21.0% #12
Total Defense +4.3 #67

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #17 -1.5% #66
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.7% #65 -6.7% #65
Possession Length 16.3 #81 18.3 #308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #18 0.15 #105
Improvement +2.5 #56 -3.5 #340

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.3% 4.5% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.7% 69.6% 55.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.4% 55.5% 38.1%
Average Seed 9.4 9.2 9.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.5%
Conference Champion 33.5% 40.4% 20.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.8% 11.6% 12.1%
First Round59.3% 64.4% 49.3%
Second Round27.5% 30.7% 21.3%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 7.4% 4.8%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.5% 1.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 2
Quad 28 - 410 - 6
Quad 310 - 220 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 55 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 60% +8  1 - 0 +13 +4 C- A+ F +9 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 217 Weber St. W 83 - 73 95% +4  2 - 0 +4 +5 F A- A+ -2 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 256 UTEP W 75 - 51 96% +12  3 - 0 +16 +1 C- A- F +16 A+ B- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 172 Tulane W 96 - 75 90% +6  4 - 0 +20 +24 A+ B+ A- -4 F C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 137 Davidson W 94 - 60 85% +17  5 - 0 +36 +22 A+ A F +13 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 152 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 92% +3  6 - 0 +1 +2 B- D+ B+ -2 B- C+ A+
 Thu, Dec 4 74 @South Florida L 61 - 74 58% -15  6 - 1 -2 -7 F D C +5 C A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 173 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 85% +11  7 - 1 +28 +11 C+ D A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 90 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 73% +6  8 - 1 +11 +17 A+ A+ F -6 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 96 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 84% +24  9 - 1 1 - 0 +44 +34 A+ A+ C +14 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 143 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 80% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +13 -1 B D F +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 238 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 96% +1  11 - 1 3 - 0 +11 +26 A+ A+ A+ -14 F B- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 340 @Air Force W 99 - 62 97% +20  12 - 1 4 - 0 +29 +31 B+ A+ A+ -0 C+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 66 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 56% +19  13 - 1 5 - 0 +36 +33 A+ A+ A+ +5 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 80 Nevada W 71 - 62 79% +3  14 - 1 6 - 0 +13 +4 B+ D C +10 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 79 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 84 59% -5  14 - 2 6 - 1 +0 +14 D A+ A+ -14 F D C
 Tue, Jan 20 114 UNLV L 76 - 86 87% +3  14 - 3 6 - 2 -10 +5 C C A+ -15 D+ F B-
 Fri, Jan 23 96 @Colorado St. W 76 - 72 66%
 Wed, Jan 28 108 Wyoming W 82 - 70 86%
 Sat, Jan 31 46 San Diego St. W 78 - 73 67%
 Wed, Feb 4 51 @New Mexico L 77 - 78 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 108 @Wyoming W 79 - 73 70%
 Tue, Feb 10 143 Fresno St. W 82 - 67 92%
 Sat, Feb 14 92 Memphis W 80 - 70 82%
 Wed, Feb 18 66 Boise St. W 77 - 70 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 80 @Nevada W 76 - 74 59%
 Wed, Feb 25 46 @San Diego St. L 75 - 76 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 79 Grand Canyon W 78 - 70 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 114 @UNLV W 82 - 76 73%
 Sat, Mar 7 51 New Mexico W 80 - 75 68%
Totals 23 - 7 14 - 6 +13 +9 A- A+ B- +4 B+ C A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 8.8 13.1 7.8 1.9 33.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 9.2 10.2 2.7 0.1 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 6.8 8.4 1.8 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.0 6.2 1.6 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 1.2 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.7 9.6 15.9 21.0 20.9 15.9 7.9 1.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-3 98.5% 7.8    7.1 0.7 0.0
16-4 82.7% 13.1    8.1 4.5 0.5
15-5 42.4% 8.8    2.6 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.4% 1.8    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.5% 33.5 19.9 9.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.9% 98.4% 47.9% 50.5% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.0%
17-3 7.9% 95.7% 45.5% 50.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 92.0%
16-4 15.9% 88.2% 39.0% 49.1% 8.8 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 4.3 3.4 0.8 1.9 80.6%
15-5 20.9% 78.1% 34.2% 43.9% 9.6 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.4 6.4 3.1 4.6 66.7%
14-6 21.0% 63.7% 28.9% 34.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 5.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 49.0%
13-7 15.9% 46.5% 23.4% 23.2% 10.5 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.2 0.0 8.5 30.2%
12-8 9.6% 31.3% 18.2% 13.1% 10.7 0.1 0.7 2.2 0.0 6.6 16.0%
11-9 4.7% 19.0% 12.6% 6.5% 10.9 0.1 0.7 0.0 3.8 7.4%
10-10 1.7% 13.1% 11.1% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.5 2.3%
9-11 0.5% 12.1% 11.1% 1.0% 11.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.1%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 64.7% 30.2% 34.5% 9.4 35.3 49.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 4.3 1.8 4.7 14.2 39.1 27.2 10.7 1.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 96.7% 6.4 4.9 14.8 32.8 32.8 8.2 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 97.3% 6.5 1.4 13.5 31.1 41.9 8.1 1.4