South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#79
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#93
Pace78.2#21
Improvement+0.2#177

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#84
First Shot-1.2#213
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#5
Layup/Dunks+2.8#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#359
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#219
Freethrows+1.9#82
Improvement-2.2#341

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#78
First Shot+3.1#77
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#181
Layups/Dunks+1.9#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#155
Freethrows-0.6#223
Improvement+2.3#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.8% 23.5% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.8
.500 or above 93.3% 94.7% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 92.1% 87.1%
Conference Champion 26.7% 27.6% 20.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
First Round22.5% 23.1% 18.3%
Second Round5.5% 5.8% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 24 - 54 - 8
Quad 38 - 313 - 11
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 345 Florida A&M W 102-67 97%     1 - 0 +20.6 +10.0 +6.2
  Sat, Nov 8 62 George Washington L 95-99 43%     1 - 1 +5.1 +6.0 -0.1
  Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100-50 99%     2 - 1 +30.0 +21.3 +9.7
  Sun, Nov 16 162 @Kennesaw St. W 108-89 68%     3 - 1 +21.6 +21.6 -2.3
  Wed, Nov 19 47 @Oklahoma St. L 95-103 26%     3 - 2 +6.0 +14.6 -7.4
  Wed, Nov 26 43 Virginia Commonwealth L 66-78 34%     3 - 3 -0.4 -1.5 +1.5
  Thu, Nov 27 123 Western Kentucky W 97-91 OT 66%     4 - 3 +8.9 +3.5 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 28 74 Colorado St. L 68-83 49%     4 - 4 -7.4 -3.9 -3.8
  Thu, Dec 4 51 Utah St. W 74-61 49%     5 - 4 +20.6 +3.7 +16.8
  Wed, Dec 10 180 College of Charleston W 84-72 87%    
  Wed, Dec 17 11 @Alabama L 83-98 9%    
  Sun, Dec 21 272 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 87-71 94%    
  Tue, Jan 6 112 UAB W 84-77 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 145 @North Texas W 73-70 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 91 @Tulsa L 77-78 45%    
  Wed, Jan 14 245 East Carolina W 86-71 91%    
  Sun, Jan 18 97 Wichita St. W 79-74 69%    
  Thu, Jan 22 112 @UAB W 81-80 52%    
  Sun, Jan 25 126 Florida Atlantic W 83-75 75%    
  Wed, Jan 28 172 @Tulane W 82-77 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 157 @Temple W 84-80 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 269 Texas San Antonio W 87-71 93%    
  Sun, Feb 8 91 Tulsa W 80-75 66%    
  Wed, Feb 11 97 @Wichita St. L 76-77 47%    
  Sun, Feb 15 126 @Florida Atlantic W 80-78 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 75 Memphis W 81-78 59%    
  Wed, Feb 25 217 @Rice W 80-72 75%    
  Sun, Mar 1 172 Tulane W 85-74 84%    
  Thu, Mar 5 75 @Memphis L 78-81 39%    
  Sun, Mar 8 186 Charlotte W 80-68 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.4 7.3 7.7 4.8 2.1 0.6 26.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.6 5.4 1.5 0.1 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 6.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.9 3.0 0.3 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.0 0.4 8.7 5th
6th 0.4 2.6 2.9 0.4 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.4 7.1 10.4 13.4 15.5 14.8 13.4 9.2 5.0 2.1 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 97.4% 4.8    4.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 83.3% 7.7    5.6 2.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.9% 7.3    3.7 2.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 23.3% 3.4    0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.7% 26.7 17.2 7.1 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 74.3% 47.4% 26.9% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 51.1%
17-1 2.1% 60.2% 40.0% 20.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 33.7%
16-2 5.0% 46.9% 41.6% 5.2% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0%
15-3 9.2% 38.0% 36.2% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.2 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.7 2.8%
14-4 13.4% 32.0% 31.0% 1.0% 11.5 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.1 9.1 1.4%
13-5 14.8% 24.9% 24.7% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 1.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 0.2%
12-6 15.5% 20.3% 20.3% 11.9 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.4
11-7 13.4% 14.9% 14.9% 12.1 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 11.4
10-8 10.4% 12.1% 12.1% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.1
9-9 7.1% 7.6% 7.6% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.6
8-10 4.4% 5.3% 5.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
7-11 2.3% 4.3% 4.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.8% 21.7% 1.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 9.4 9.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 77.2 1.5%