American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 Memphis 28.3%   11   4 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 12 13 - 5 +8.2      +2.8 104 +5.3 44 73.5 85 +5.5 102 0.0 1
79 South Florida 21.6%   5 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +7.3      +3.8 85 +3.5 75 77.8 26 +6.4 92 0.0 1
89 Tulsa 16.9%   6 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +6.0      +5.8 58 +0.3 160 65.7 278 +11.4 54 0.0 1
91 Wichita St. 15.3%   5 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +5.8      +3.0 98 +2.8 89 65.9 277 +3.3 123 0.0 1
110 UAB 8.0%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +3.7      +1.8 123 +1.9 114 73.0 99 +4.8 110 0.0 1
122 Florida Atlantic 6.1%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +2.6      +3.2 96 -0.6 178 67.9 223 +3.6 121 0.0 1
144 North Texas 3.5%   6 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.0      -1.7 218 +2.7 92 62.0 353 +2.8 130 0.0 1
160 Temple 2.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 -0.4      +3.9 84 -4.2 320 67.4 243 -2.8 207 0.0 1
181 Charlotte 1.4%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -1.6      +0.8 145 -2.4 247 60.8 358 -5.0 242 0.0 1
187 Tulane 1.1%   6 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 11 -1.7      +2.0 120 -3.7 294 66.8 257 +1.4 145 0.0 1
213 Rice 0.5%   3 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -3.3      -1.6 212 -1.8 227 65.1 297 -6.4 271 0.0 1
266 East Carolina 0.2%   2 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 13 -5.6      -3.9 273 -1.7 224 71.8 126 -10.9 317 0.0 1
277 Texas San Antonio 0.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -6.1      -4.7 299 -1.3 208 73.1 92 -7.7 287 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 213 Rice 77 237 Texas St. 72   
Wed, Dec 3 69 Memphis 86 244 New Orleans 70   
Thu, Dec 4 79 South Florida 74 51 Utah St. 61   
Fri, Dec 5 124 Drake 69 110 UAB 74   
Sat, Dec 6 34 Baylor 71 69 Memphis 78   
Sat, Dec 6 98 Northern Iowa 69 91 Wichita St. 74   
Sat, Dec 6 178 Saint Joseph's 70 160 Temple 69   
Sat, Dec 6 266 East Carolina 78 281 UNC Greensboro 82   
Sat, Dec 6 54 Akron 88 187 Tulane 71   
Sat, Dec 6 255 Missouri St. 74 89 Tulsa 98   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 174 Florida Gulf Coast 78 122 Florida Atlantic 79 53%   
Sun, Dec 7 144 North Texas 63 47 TCU 70 74%   
Sun, Dec 7 181 Charlotte 67 51 Utah St. 76 80%   
Sun, Dec 7 10 Alabama 99 277 Texas San Antonio 72 99%   
Wed, Dec 10 175 College of Charleston 72 79 South Florida 84 86%   
Wed, Dec 10 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff 66 89 Tulsa 88 97%   
Thu, Dec 11 282 Appalachian St. 66 266 East Carolina 69 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 2.9 35.5 21.2 13.9 9.8 6.7 4.8 3.4 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
South Florida 3.5 25.0 19.1 14.9 12.1 9.1 7.0 4.9 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Tulsa 3.8 21.8 18.4 14.9 11.7 9.5 7.3 5.6 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1
Wichita St. 4.0 18.5 16.9 15.2 13.1 10.7 8.1 6.1 4.6 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2
UAB 5.2 9.8 11.6 12.2 12.3 11.8 10.8 9.3 7.6 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.6
Florida Atlantic 5.8 7.0 8.8 10.1 11.3 11.2 10.8 10.2 9.2 7.8 5.8 4.0 2.6 1.2
North Texas 6.7 3.9 6.1 7.8 9.3 10.2 11.0 11.2 10.8 9.0 8.0 6.4 4.1 2.1
Temple 6.8 2.8 5.5 7.4 9.7 10.5 11.3 11.5 10.5 9.6 7.9 6.2 4.5 2.6
Charlotte 7.9 1.4 2.9 4.4 6.2 7.5 9.7 10.7 11.6 11.8 11.5 9.8 7.7 5.0
Tulane 9.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.7 5.1 6.4 8.2 10.1 12.2 13.1 14.1 13.2 9.1
Rice 9.1 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.0 6.5 8.2 10.6 12.1 13.5 13.5 12.7 10.1
East Carolina 10.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.9 6.9 9.3 12.5 15.9 20.1 22.4
Texas San Antonio 10.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.3 5.1 7.0 9.1 11.6 15.0 19.2 24.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.9 11.0 14.2 15.6 15.7 12.8 7.9 3.5 1.0
South Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.5 7.6 10.7 13.8 15.0 15.1 12.7 8.6 5.1 1.9 0.4
Tulsa 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.5 8.5 11.0 13.7 14.5 13.8 11.7 8.2 4.4 1.7 0.4
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.2 9.4 12.4 14.5 15.1 13.9 10.3 6.9 3.2 1.1 0.2
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.4 7.0 10.1 12.7 14.2 14.3 12.6 9.6 6.0 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.4 9.2 12.1 13.2 14.1 12.9 10.3 7.2 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
North Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.0 6.1 8.6 11.4 13.4 14.5 12.8 11.0 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Temple 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 5.8 8.8 11.9 13.4 14.7 13.2 10.8 7.6 4.9 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.2 9.4 12.4 14.3 14.3 13.0 10.3 7.1 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulane 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.5 10.2 12.8 14.5 14.5 12.4 9.5 6.7 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.1 6.5 10.2 13.1 14.9 14.6 12.5 9.4 6.7 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 0.9 3.5 7.9 12.4 15.3 16.2 14.5 11.3 8.0 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 1.3 4.2 8.7 12.3 15.0 15.2 13.8 11.1 7.9 5.2 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 35.5% 24.2 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Florida 25.0% 15.8 6.6 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 21.8% 13.5 6.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 18.5% 11.2 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
UAB 9.8% 5.4 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 7.0% 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Texas 3.9% 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Temple 2.8% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Rice 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 28.3% 25.7% 2.7% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.7 12.8 8.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 71.7 3.6%
South Florida 21.6% 20.4% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 8.8 9.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 78.4 1.5%
Tulsa 16.9% 15.9% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 6.2 7.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 83.1 1.2%
Wichita St. 15.3% 15.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.1 7.9 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 84.7 0.3%
UAB 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 92.0 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 6.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 93.9 0.1%
North Texas 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 96.5 0.0%
Temple 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 97.9 0.0%
Charlotte 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 98.6 0.0%
Tulane 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%
East Carolina 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 28.3% 1.5% 27.6% 8.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 21.6% 0.9% 21.1% 5.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 16.9% 0.8% 16.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 15.3% 0.2% 15.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 8.0% 0.1% 7.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.1% 0.1% 6.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.8 5.1 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 96.5 3.4 0.0
2nd Round 23.2% 0.2 76.8 23.0 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 5.0% 0.0 95.0 5.0 0.0
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0