Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
53 Memphis 43.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 5 +10.3      +5.3 56 +5.1 51 75.1 32 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 North Texas 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +5.8      +0.2 157 +5.5 46 55.7 363 0.0 1 0.0 1
102 UAB 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +4.8      +4.1 71 +0.7 140 71.9 72 0.0 1 0.0 1
106 South Florida 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +4.4      +2.4 105 +2.0 114 70.2 118 0.0 1 0.0 1
116 Tulane 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +3.2      +2.7 102 +0.5 144 67.0 210 0.0 1 0.0 1
122 Wichita St. 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +2.3      +1.4 126 +0.9 134 70.9 99 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 Temple 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 9 +1.8      +2.4 104 -0.7 189 71.2 93 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 Florida Atlantic 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 13 7 - 9 +1.4      +1.9 114 -0.5 179 71.6 80 0.0 1 0.0 1
149 Tulsa 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +0.4      +0.8 140 -0.4 178 65.7 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
158 East Carolina 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 10 -0.3      -1.0 196 +0.7 139 66.3 224 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 Rice 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -0.7      +0.3 154 -1.0 198 64.5 281 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 Texas San Antonio 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 7 - 9 -0.9      +0.8 139 -1.7 225 73.1 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Charlotte 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -1.8      -0.5 177 -1.4 214 63.2 309 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 2.6 46.4 18.6 10.8 7.4 5.3 3.7 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2
North Texas 4.5 17.5 16.2 13.3 11.1 9.0 7.7 6.5 5.3 4.4 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.2
UAB 5.2 12.9 13.4 11.9 10.6 9.6 8.5 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.7 4.0 2.8 1.9
South Florida 5.4 11.0 12.4 12.1 10.9 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.0 5.9 5.2 4.1 3.3 2.0
Tulane 6.3 7.7 9.2 9.7 9.8 9.4 8.8 8.7 7.9 7.3 6.6 6.2 5.3 3.5
Wichita St. 6.4 6.8 8.9 9.8 9.5 9.5 9.0 8.8 7.9 7.5 6.9 6.3 5.1 4.0
Temple 6.3 7.1 9.2 10.2 9.7 9.4 9.0 8.6 7.7 7.2 6.5 5.9 5.0 4.5
Florida Atlantic 8.3 1.7 3.4 4.6 6.1 6.9 7.9 8.8 9.4 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.6 8.8
Tulsa 7.6 3.8 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.0 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.0 9.3 8.8 7.7
East Carolina 7.7 3.0 5.4 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.5
Rice 7.9 2.9 4.7 5.8 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.9 9.7 9.7
Texas San Antonio 8.9 0.8 2.3 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.1 8.0 8.9 10.1 11.0 11.5 12.7 13.1
Charlotte 8.5 1.9 3.6 4.9 5.4 6.6 7.0 8.3 8.5 8.9 9.8 10.8 11.6 12.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.3 8.5 10.2 12.2 13.6 14.1 12.1 8.4 3.8
North Texas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.8 8.0 9.4 11.0 11.7 11.4 11.1 8.8 6.8 4.2 1.8 0.5
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.6 7.5 9.1 10.7 11.3 11.6 10.5 8.9 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.3 0.3
South Florida 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.1 6.1 8.3 9.5 11.0 11.3 11.5 10.6 8.4 6.2 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.3
Tulane 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.0 8.0 9.4 10.8 11.3 11.1 10.4 8.3 6.5 4.7 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1
Wichita St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.3 8.1 9.7 11.2 11.5 11.1 9.9 8.0 6.4 4.4 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
Temple 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.3 5.7 7.9 9.6 10.8 11.5 10.8 9.8 8.6 6.4 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1
Florida Atlantic 7 - 11 0.4 1.8 3.5 6.1 8.9 10.8 12.1 12.7 11.8 10.2 8.2 6.2 3.9 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.7 4.9 7.7 9.2 10.5 11.3 11.5 10.5 9.1 7.2 5.3 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.3 7.2 9.3 10.9 11.2 11.5 10.2 9.0 7.5 5.2 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.5 1.5 3.6 5.6 7.9 10.4 11.0 11.3 10.8 10.1 8.4 6.8 5.0 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 7 - 11 0.7 2.5 5.3 7.8 10.2 11.7 12.5 12.3 11.2 9.1 6.9 4.8 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
Charlotte 7 - 11 0.6 2.3 4.7 7.2 9.5 11.0 11.2 11.6 11.0 9.5 7.1 5.4 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 46.4% 35.5 8.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
North Texas 17.5% 11.1 4.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
UAB 12.9% 8.2 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Florida 11.0% 6.5 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tulane 7.7% 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 6.8% 3.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Temple 7.1% 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 1.7% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 3.8% 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 43.9% 33.9% 10.0% 11   0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.2 4.7 7.9 13.2 3.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 56.1 15.1%
North Texas 14.9% 13.2% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.9 6.4 3.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 85.1 2.0%
UAB 12.0% 10.5% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 4.9 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 88.0 1.6%
South Florida 10.8% 9.4% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 4.5 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 89.2 1.5%
Tulane 7.8% 7.1% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 92.2 0.7%
Wichita St. 6.2% 5.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.3 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 93.8 0.5%
Temple 5.3% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 94.7 0.2%
Florida Atlantic 4.0% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 96.0 0.3%
Tulsa 3.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 96.8 0.2%
East Carolina 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 97.3 0.1%
Rice 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 97.6 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.0 0.1%
Charlotte 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.4 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 43.9% 3.3% 42.2% 19.5% 6.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
North Texas 14.9% 0.9% 14.4% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 12.0% 0.9% 11.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 10.8% 0.7% 10.4% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 7.8% 0.4% 7.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 6.2% 0.3% 6.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 5.3% 0.2% 5.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.0% 0.2% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 3.2% 0.1% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 2.7% 0.1% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 83.8 15.7 0.5 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.1 0.1 87.1 12.5 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 34.4% 0.4 65.6 32.8 1.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.3 0.1
Elite Eight 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1