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American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#157
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#186
Pace69.0#196
Improvement-1.9#309

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#80
First Shot+5.2#51
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#243
Layup/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#227
Freethrows+3.8#23
Improvement-1.6#302

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#315
First Shot-8.4#363
After Offensive Rebounds+4.2#10
Layups/Dunks+0.3#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#361
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement-0.3#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 57.4% 67.8% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 56.3% 61.3% 49.9%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.7% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 3.9% 6.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.6% 3.4% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Neutral) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 410 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 355 Delaware St. W 83-65 93%     1 - 0 +1.5 +10.2 -7.7
  Tue, Nov 11 229 La Salle W 90-63 75%     2 - 0 +20.0 +19.3 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 15 132 Boston College L 71-76 54%     2 - 1 -6.1 +2.4 -8.6
  Wed, Nov 19 136 Hofstra W 81-76 55%     3 - 1 +3.7 +10.4 -6.7
  Mon, Nov 24 102 UC San Diego L 76-91 32%     3 - 2 -10.2 +5.5 -16.0
  Tue, Nov 25 247 Princeton W 79-75 67%     4 - 2 -0.7 +9.4 -9.9
  Wed, Nov 26 110 Rhode Island L 75-90 35%     4 - 3 -11.1 +5.0 -16.1
  Mon, Dec 1 39 @Villanova L 56-74 9%     4 - 4 -3.0 +1.4 -8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 184 Saint Joseph's W 79-77 56%    
  Sun, Dec 14 356 St. Francis (PA) W 87-70 94%    
  Thu, Dec 18 137 @Davidson L 73-78 32%    
  Mon, Dec 22 247 Princeton W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Dec 31 186 @Charlotte L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Jan 3 269 Texas San Antonio W 82-73 79%    
  Wed, Jan 7 245 East Carolina W 81-73 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 75 @Memphis L 73-84 17%    
  Sun, Jan 18 126 Florida Atlantic W 79-78 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 217 @Rice W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 269 @Texas San Antonio W 79-76 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 186 Charlotte W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 79 South Florida L 80-84 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 245 @East Carolina W 78-76 55%    
  Wed, Feb 11 172 @Tulane L 78-80 43%    
  Sun, Feb 15 145 North Texas W 72-70 57%    
  Wed, Feb 18 112 UAB L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 97 @Wichita St. L 72-80 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 126 @Florida Atlantic L 75-81 30%    
  Sun, Mar 1 217 Rice W 78-72 72%    
  Thu, Mar 5 172 Tulane W 81-77 64%    
  Sun, Mar 8 91 @Tulsa L 73-82 22%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.1 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 5.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.8 0.4 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.4 1.0 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 5.3 1.7 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.7 2.4 0.2 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.4 3.0 0.2 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 5.7 8.3 11.3 13.4 14.2 12.8 11.0 8.1 5.4 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 92.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 75.6% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.8% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 14.8% 14.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.2% 20.4% 20.4% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.9% 11.5% 11.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-5 5.4% 8.2% 8.2% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.0
12-6 8.1% 5.9% 5.9% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.6
11-7 11.0% 4.2% 4.2% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.6
10-8 12.8% 2.1% 2.1% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.6
9-9 14.2% 1.0% 1.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0
8-10 13.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3
7-11 11.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 8.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.2
5-13 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 3.0% 3.0
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 97.4 0.0%