Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#39
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#45
Pace60.1#360
Improvement-1.3#280

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#43
First Shot+2.4#115
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#10
Layup/Dunks+2.7#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#40
Freethrows-2.4#311
Improvement-0.2#194

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#50
First Shot-0.3#180
After Offensive Rebounds+5.1#3
Layups/Dunks-1.4#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#218
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
Freethrows+1.7#87
Improvement-1.1#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.6% 4.9% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 15.7% 16.4% 4.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.9% 60.0% 40.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.9% 57.0% 38.1%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 8.6
.500 or above 90.8% 91.6% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 75.1% 63.8%
Conference Champion 5.4% 5.6% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 3.8%
First Four7.9% 8.0% 6.7%
First Round54.7% 55.8% 37.5%
Second Round31.0% 31.8% 18.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.6% 9.9% 4.8%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.4% 2.0%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Neutral) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 36 - 116 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 8 BYU L 66-71 24%     0 - 1 +14.3 +2.9 +11.3
  Sat, Nov 8 199 Queens W 94-74 94%     1 - 1 +14.6 +16.6 -1.5
  Tue, Nov 11 255 Sacred Heart W 94-60 96%     2 - 1 +25.6 +20.2 +7.7
  Sat, Nov 15 135 Duquesne W 87-77 89%     3 - 1 +8.7 +14.2 -5.5
  Wed, Nov 19 229 @La Salle W 70-55 88%     4 - 1 +14.0 +10.0 +6.6
  Tue, Nov 25 220 Old Dominion W 89-75 95%     5 - 1 +7.4 +16.8 -8.6
  Mon, Dec 1 157 Temple W 74-56 91%     6 - 1 +14.9 +11.1 +7.6
  Sat, Dec 6 240 Penn W 80-63 94%    
  Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 63-80 5%    
  Sat, Dec 13 92 Pittsburgh W 72-62 81%    
  Fri, Dec 19 36 Wisconsin L 72-73 47%    
  Tue, Dec 23 76 @Seton Hall W 66-64 56%    
  Wed, Dec 31 121 DePaul W 75-63 86%    
  Sat, Jan 3 44 @Butler L 72-74 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 45 Creighton W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 83 @Marquette W 72-70 58%    
  Tue, Jan 13 72 @Providence W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 13 St. John's L 72-75 40%    
  Wed, Jan 21 85 Georgetown W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 5 @Connecticut L 61-72 15%    
  Fri, Jan 30 72 Providence W 79-72 75%    
  Wed, Feb 4 76 Seton Hall W 69-61 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 85 @Georgetown W 72-69 60%    
  Tue, Feb 10 83 Marquette W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 45 @Creighton L 69-71 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 77 @Xavier W 71-69 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 5 Connecticut L 64-69 31%    
  Wed, Feb 25 44 Butler W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 13 @St. John's L 69-78 22%    
  Wed, Mar 4 121 @DePaul W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 77 Xavier W 74-66 76%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 5.1 7.0 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 21.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 6.2 6.3 2.8 0.6 0.1 18.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.0 4.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.9 4.4 6.7 9.5 11.4 13.4 13.3 12.3 9.5 7.2 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 91.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 67.2% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 37.4% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 14.9% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 2.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 3.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 4.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 99.8% 16.0% 83.9% 5.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 7.2% 99.2% 14.0% 85.1% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.0%
14-6 9.5% 96.2% 11.7% 84.5% 7.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.4 95.7%
13-7 12.3% 91.8% 8.5% 83.3% 8.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.9 2.5 1.7 0.5 1.0 91.0%
12-8 13.3% 78.6% 6.5% 72.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.1 2.8 1.5 0.0 2.9 77.1%
11-9 13.4% 57.1% 3.8% 53.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.7 2.0 0.0 5.7 55.4%
10-10 11.4% 37.6% 2.9% 34.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.8 0.1 7.1 35.8%
9-11 9.5% 14.1% 2.5% 11.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 8.2 11.9%
8-12 6.7% 3.2% 1.1% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 2.1%
7-13 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.1%
6-14 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 58.9% 6.8% 52.1% 7.9 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.5 7.8 8.9 9.7 9.6 6.9 0.3 0.0 41.1 55.9%