Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#36
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#57
Pace73.8#81
Improvement-0.1#197

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#40
First Shot+6.2#33
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#120
Layup/Dunks+1.7#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#27
Freethrows+1.7#96
Improvement-1.2#278

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot+2.8#86
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#36
Layups/Dunks+3.4#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#216
Freethrows+1.5#100
Improvement+1.1#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.6% 7.6% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 20.3% 22.5% 11.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.4% 67.0% 48.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.9% 66.5% 47.8%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 8.1
.500 or above 88.4% 91.6% 75.4%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 68.7% 56.4%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.0%
First Four7.2% 7.1% 7.5%
First Round60.0% 63.7% 44.6%
Second Round35.9% 38.7% 24.3%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 13.7% 7.5%
Elite Eight4.6% 5.2% 2.3%
Final Four1.6% 1.8% 0.6%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 25 - 210 - 13
Quad 34 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 224 Campbell W 96-64 96%     1 - 0 +25.2 +18.3 +6.4
  Fri, Nov 7 330 Northern Illinois W 97-72 98%     2 - 0 +12.3 +11.9 -0.8
  Tue, Nov 11 316 Ball St. W 86-55 98%     3 - 0 +19.5 +10.4 +9.8
  Mon, Nov 17 206 SIU Edwardsville W 94-69 95%     4 - 0 +19.2 +26.3 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 21 8 BYU L 70-98 27%     4 - 1 -8.7 +0.7 -7.7
  Thu, Nov 27 72 Providence W 104-83 70%     5 - 1 +28.7 +17.8 +7.9
  Fri, Nov 28 48 TCU L 63-74 58%     5 - 2 -0.1 -6.4 +6.9
  Wed, Dec 3 60 Northwestern W 85-73 74%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +18.2 +14.2 +4.1
  Sat, Dec 6 83 Marquette W 83-74 81%    
  Wed, Dec 10 49 @Nebraska L 78-79 47%    
  Fri, Dec 19 39 Villanova W 73-72 53%    
  Mon, Dec 22 309 Central Michigan W 88-64 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 221 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90-70 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 2 Purdue L 74-80 29%    
  Tue, Jan 6 31 UCLA W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan L 72-88 7%    
  Tue, Jan 13 95 @Minnesota W 74-69 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 120 Rutgers W 80-67 88%    
  Thu, Jan 22 96 @Penn St. W 81-76 67%    
  Sun, Jan 25 32 USC W 82-80 59%    
  Wed, Jan 28 95 Minnesota W 77-66 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 25 Ohio St. W 79-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 24 @Indiana L 74-79 35%    
  Tue, Feb 10 17 @Illinois L 77-84 26%    
  Fri, Feb 13 10 Michigan St. L 72-75 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 25 @Ohio St. L 76-80 35%    
  Sun, Feb 22 27 Iowa W 74-72 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 80 @Oregon W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 57 @Washington W 78-77 52%    
  Wed, Mar 4 86 Maryland W 83-73 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 2 @Purdue L 71-83 14%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.0 2.0 0.2 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.6 4.4 0.8 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.3 3.3 5.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.5 6.1 8.8 12.6 14.5 14.6 13.2 10.1 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 74.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 43.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
16-4 11.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.9% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 3.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.0% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.0% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.9% 99.9% 3.2% 96.7% 5.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.1% 98.9% 2.2% 96.8% 6.5 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 13.2% 95.6% 1.3% 94.2% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.2 3.7 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.6 95.5%
11-9 14.6% 85.7% 0.8% 85.0% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 3.3 2.3 0.9 0.0 2.1 85.6%
10-10 14.5% 65.2% 0.4% 64.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.9 2.5 0.1 5.0 65.0%
9-11 12.6% 32.5% 0.3% 32.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 0.2 8.5 32.2%
8-12 8.8% 8.3% 0.1% 8.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.2%
7-13 6.1% 0.9% 0.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.9%
6-14 3.5% 3.5
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 63.4% 1.3% 62.1% 7.5 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.8 5.9 7.7 9.8 10.6 8.8 7.4 6.2 0.3 0.0 36.6 62.9%