Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.6 #102
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #152
Pace 72.6 #82
Improvement +0.5 #153

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 C C- A+ C A+
Defense #104 C+ C B+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #7 1.14 #200 +5.1 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #361 0.71 #253 -5.1 #360
Three Pointers 44% #115 0.96 #256 +0.4 #167
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #166 +0.4 #166
Freethrows 18.7 #129 69% #288 12.9 #177
Second Chance 31.8% #149 0.95 #293 0.30 #206
Turnovers 12.8% #16
Total Offense +2.2 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #133 1.15 #172 -1.0 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.69 #79 +0.6 #148
Three Pointers 39% #244 0.99 #145 +1.6 #123
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #140 +1.2 #142
Freethrows 15.6 #70 76% #331 11.8 #115
Second Chance 30.3% #165 1.05 #194 0.32 #184
Turnovers 19.3% #46
Total Defense +2.4 #104

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.8% #2 0.2% #185
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #237 -2.6% #138
Possession Length 14.9 #15 18.8 #346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #6 0.15 #121
Improvement +1.9 #81 -1.4 #271

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.7 15.1
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 1.9% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.4% 30.7% 54.8%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 23 - 74 - 19
Quad 32 - 36 - 22
Quad 45 - 011 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 305 Albany W 80 - 53 92% +13  1 - 0 +16 -5 C F F +18 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 5 246 Southern W 100 - 82 87% +9  2 - 0 +10 +14 A C+ A+ -6 D- C C
 Sun, Nov 9 37 Indiana L 77 - 100 20% -12  2 - 1 -10 +4 F A+ D -11 D+ D- F
 Wed, Nov 12 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 90% +18  3 - 1 +30 +15 A F A+ +17 A A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 100 Maryland L 82 - 89 60% -3  3 - 2 -5 +3 F A+ B+ -7 F B+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 73 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 49% -5  3 - 3 -1 -6 D D+ D+ +6 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 322 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 94% +5  4 - 3 +1 +4 A F B+ -3 C A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 57 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 31% +4  4 - 4 +9 +12 B+ F A+ -3 C- C- C
 Tue, Dec 2 167 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 79% -2  5 - 4 -1 -5 F F C- +4 D- C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 35 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 13% -12  5 - 5 -3 +2 B+ F A+ -3 D A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 5 @Purdue L 59 - 79 5% -16  5 - 6 +4 -0 F A+ D+ +3 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 93 Georgetown L 69 - 78 58% -2  5 - 7 0 - 1 -6 +3 D- A+ A+ -11 C F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 44 @Creighton L 63 - 84 18% -14  5 - 8 0 - 2 -7 -11 F F C +6 B- B- B+
 Tue, Dec 30 56 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 40% +2  5 - 9 0 - 3 +1 +7 D B+ A+ -6 A+ F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 7 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 5% -11  5 - 10 0 - 4 +7 -2 D C- A +9 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 7 81 Xavier W 66 - 65 51% +5  6 - 10 1 - 4 +5 -5 F A+ F +11 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 33 Villanova L 73 - 76 27% -3  6 - 11 1 - 5 +8 +13 A+ D+ A+ -5 D C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 18 @St. John's L 68 - 92 8% -9  6 - 12 1 - 6 -4 +1 A+ F F -3 C C B
 Fri, Jan 16 99 @DePaul L 75 - 80 36% +1  6 - 13 1 - 7 +3 +15 A+ F A+ -12 C F F
 Mon, Jan 19 65 Providence W 105 - 104 OT 47% +3  7 - 13 2 - 7 +6 +16 A+ A A+ -10 D- F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 59 @Butler L 76 - 84 23%
 Tue, Jan 27 44 Creighton L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 56 @Seton Hall L 65 - 74 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 59 Butler L 79 - 81 42%
 Tue, Feb 10 33 @Villanova L 66 - 78 12%
 Sat, Feb 14 81 @Xavier L 76 - 82 30%
 Wed, Feb 18 18 St. John's L 74 - 84 18%
 Tue, Feb 24 93 @Georgetown L 74 - 78 36%
 Sun, Mar 1 99 DePaul W 74 - 72 59%
 Wed, Mar 4 65 @Providence L 82 - 89 26%
 Sat, Mar 7 7 Connecticut L 66 - 79 12%
Totals 10 - 21 5 - 15 +5 +2 C C- A+ +2 C+ C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.4 3.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 5.6 1.0 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 5.6 9.1 2.5 0.1 17.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 8.8 13.5 5.6 0.3 30.0 10th
11th 3.1 10.3 12.2 4.9 0.4 0.0 30.8 11th
Total 3.2 12.0 21.7 24.2 19.2 11.8 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 7.7%
10-10 0.5% 0.5
9-11 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 2.0
8-12 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
7-13 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 11.7
6-14 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 19.2
5-15 24.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 24.2
4-16 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.7
3-17 12.0% 12.0
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.5 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%