Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +14.7 29
Expected Predictive Rating +14.1 40
Pace 67.9 205
Improvement -1.4 253

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #26 A C+ B+ B+ B+
Defense B #49 A- C+ C C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 162 66% 40 +3.3 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% 354 55% 1 -3.0 320
Three Pointers 52% 18 37% 56 +8.0 12
1st FG Attempt 1.19 15 +8.2 16
Second Chance 30.6% 177 1.08 100 0.33 127
Turnovers 13.8% 26
Freethrows 0.34 87 78% 11 0.26 33
Total Offense +9.3 26

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 289 47% 11 +5.8 24
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 23 36% 112 -2.2 333
Three Pointers 37% 280 32% 85 +3.0 64
1st FG Attempt 0.89 21 +6.6 21
Second Chance 26.6% 51 1.09 272 0.29 107
Turnovers 16.9% 183
Freethrows 0.31 195 75% 311 0.23 228
Total Defense +5.4 49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.5 21 -1.1 24
Shot Type Accuracy +6.6 18 -5.5 24
Possession Length 17.1 152 18.1 305
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 180 0.12 33
Improvement +1.3 #114 -2.6 #308

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 5% 14% 3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73% 90% 69%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73% 90% 69%
Average Seed 8.9 8.1 9.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 90% 99% 88%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four13% 7% 14%
First Round68% 88% 63%
Second Round36% 52% 33%
Sweet Sixteen10% 14% 9%
Elite Eight4% 6% 3%
Final Four1% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 23 - 17 - 12
Quad 36 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 305 Alabama A&M W 98 - 51 98% +31  96% 1 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +18 A+ C C+ A+ +18 A A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 85 Marquette W 100 - 77 78% +12  90% 2 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +21 A+ A- A+ B+ +7 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 12 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101 - 70 98% +13  97% 3 - 0 A +22 A+ +19 A+ B+ A+ B- +2 D- B- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 255 Incarnate Word W 69 - 61 97% +10  87% 4 - 0 C -0 D- -6 F+ C- C+ B+ +6 B B D+
 Thu, Nov 20 246 Lindenwood W 73 - 53 97% +14  99% 5 - 0 B+ +12 D -5 F C A+ A+ +17 A+ C C+
 Tue, Nov 25 101 Kansas St. W 86 - 69 88% +13  99% 6 - 0 A +19 B- +4 A+ D+ F+ A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 227 Bethune-Cookman W 100 - 56 97% +26  98% 7 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +22 A+ D A+ A+ +15 A+ B D
 Wed, Dec 3 71 @Minnesota L 64 - 73 64% -1  39% 7 - 1 0 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -2 C- C- A+ B- +4 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 11 Louisville L 78 - 87 32% -12  0% 7 - 2 B +11 B +6 C+ A+ C B +5 C A+ B
 Tue, Dec 9 109 Penn St. W 113 - 72 90% +28  98% 8 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +42 A+ +31 A+ A A+ A- +9 A C- A
 Sat, Dec 13 24 @Kentucky L 60 - 72 33% +0  57% 8 - 3 B- +7 D+ -4 D- C F A +10 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 353 Chicago St. W 78 - 58 99% +18  100% 9 - 3 C+ +3 D -4 B+ F+ C A- +8 C+ A D
 Mon, Dec 22 181 Siena W 81 - 60 95% +18  98% 10 - 3 A- +17 B- +4 B F+ D+ A +13 A+ B- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 46 Washington W 90 - 80 73% +7  86% 11 - 3 2 - 1 A +18 A+ +27 A+ A A+ D- -8 B D F
 Wed, Jan 7 104 @Maryland W 84 - 66 75% +6  74% 12 - 3 3 - 1 A+ +25 A +13 C+ B+ C+ A +12 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 10 15 Nebraska L 77 - 83 47% +1  41% 12 - 4 3 - 2 B +9 A +14 A A+ C- D+ -5 D+ C C-
 Tue, Jan 13 10 @Michigan St. L 60 - 81 22% -5  27% 12 - 5 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +3 A+ B- F C- -3 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 25 Iowa L 57 - 74 57% -9  0% 12 - 6 3 - 4 C- -4 C- -1 B F A+ D -7 D+ A C-
 Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 72 - 86 10% -14  0% 12 - 7 3 - 5 A- +15 A +12 A+ F+ A B- +3 C+ B- B+
 Fri, Jan 23 122 @Rutgers W 82 - 59 80% +13  98% 13 - 7 4 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +24 A+ D+ A+ A- +9 A B+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 9 Purdue W 72 - 67 39% +5  77% 14 - 7 5 - 5 A +23 A +13 A B+ A A +11 B+ A- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 34 @UCLA W 98 - 97 2OT 40% -0  35% 15 - 7 6 - 5 A +18 A- +10 B- B- A+ A- +8 A+ F D
 Tue, Feb 3 47 @USC L 75 - 81 52% -5  8% 15 - 8 6 - 6 B +8 B- +5 B+ D- A B- +3 C+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 7 33 Wisconsin W 78 - 77 OT 63% +6  83% 16 - 8 7 - 6 B+ +12 B+ +8 C+ A+ A B +4 A C D
 Mon, Feb 9 80 Oregon W 92 - 74 84% +7  72% 17 - 8 8 - 6 A +22 A+ +23 A+ D B+ C -0 B- C- F
 Sun, Feb 15 6 @Illinois L 73 - 83 18%
 Fri, Feb 20 9 @Purdue L 71 - 80 20%
 Tue, Feb 24 64 Northwestern W 79 - 70 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 10 Michigan St. L 71 - 73 42%
 Wed, Mar 4 71 Minnesota W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 39 @Ohio St. L 77 - 79 43%
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 9 +15 A- +9 A C+ B+ B +5 A- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ A+ B A- 39% 9% 52% B+ A C B- C+ B+ B- A- B+ B A C+ B- A- 35% 28% 37% B+ A- B D+ C+ C C D C-
1.22 66% 55% 37% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.1 .33 14% .34 78% .26 1.01 47% 36% 32% -5 -1 0.89 27% 1.1 .29 17% .31 75% .25
Nov
5		 Alabama A&M A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 57% 4% 40% A+ A+ D A- C C+ F+ A+ B- A+ A+ A- C A- 34% 36% 30% A- A A+ F A+ D+ C+ A+ A
1.39 80% 50% 43% +18 +3 1.45 27% 1.2 .32 16% .27 100% .27 0.73 35% 28% 33% -12 -2 0.74 8% 1.3 .10 16% .32 53% .17
Nov
9		 Marquette A+ C A- A+ A+ 42% 16% 42% B- A+ D+ A+ A- A+ A A A+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ 51% 21% 28% A A+ D- F F A F F F
1.32 58% 44% 46% +9 +1 1.21 29% 1.4 .40 11% .36 83% .30 1.02 46% 10% 23% -17 +1 0.70 37% 1.3 .47 20% .55 88% .48
Nov
12		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ A- F A+ A+ 42% 8% 50% B A+ A- C+ B+ A+ A D A- B- C- F A+ F 27% 47% 25% A+ D- D A B- A+ D- A+ A-
1.43 68% 25% 50% +15 +2 1.37 38% 1.2 .45 10% .42 70% .30 0.99 57% 58% 23% +5 -4 1.04 35% 0.8 .30 21% .32 39% .13
Nov
16		 Incarnate Word D- B+ F+ F F 48% 7% 45% B+ F+ B- F C- C+ A D A- B+ A A F B- 26% 41% 33% A+ B A+ F B D+ A+ F A
1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33 0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13
Nov
20		 Lindenwood D F D+ D F 36% 18% 46% D+ F D A C A+ A C+ A- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% A- A+ D- A- C C+ D+ F F
1.03 39% 33% 30% -10 0 0.82 28% 1.3 .35 11% .40 72% .29 0.75 19% 25% 13% -29 -1 0.42 37% 0.9 .35 20% .35 80% .28
Nov
25		 Kansas St. B- A+ C- A 42% 0% 58% A+ A+ C+ F+ D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ B- F B- 34% 30% 36% A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ C F D-
1.13 75% 32% +6 +3 1.19 35% 1.0 .35 22% .49 76% .37 0.91 53% 33% 44% +3 -2 1.04 25% 0.5 .13 25% .26 87% .23
Nov
29		 Bethune-Cookman A+ A+ A+ A A+ 45% 7% 48% B+ A+ C+ F D A+ C- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 42% 28% A+ A+ A- C B D D F F
1.41 76% 50% 41% +14 +2 1.34 33% 0.9 .30 10% .30 84% .25 0.79 40% 24% 21% -17 -3 0.62 21% 1.0 .21 15% .35 81% .28
Dec
3		 Minnesota D+ D+ D+ D- D 39% 12% 49% A C- F A+ C- A+ A F B- B- C+ A- C B 38% 18% 45% B- B D+ F F A+ F C- F
0.97 53% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 11% .34 60% .20 1.10 60% 29% 33% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.4 .47 24% .54 70% .38
Dec
6		 Louisville B C- F D C- 35% 9% 56% A+ C+ B- A+ A+ C B- A B+ B B- A+ F C 35% 6% 58% C C A+ A+ A+ B F F F
1.05 53% 20% 30% -7 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 18% .31 79% .25 1.17 59% 0% 46% +9 +2 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 18% .46 86% .39
Dec
9		 Penn St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 4% 53% A A+ D A+ A A+ B- A- B A- B- D+ A A- 37% 33% 31% A+ A B+ F C- A D- A- C-
1.54 84% 100% 53% +29 +3 1.65 24% 2.3 .53 14% .24 80% .19 0.98 56% 44% 27% -2 -2 0.94 25% 1.5 .38 19% .37 68% .25
Dec
13		 Kentucky D+ A B+ F F+ 23% 18% 59% C+ D- B- D+ C F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 24% 29% C+ A+ B D C+ F F A F
0.90 67% 43% 17% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .21 27% .59 90% .53 1.08 48% 25% 21% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.3 .42 6% .60 66% .40
Dec
20		 Chicago St. D A+ F A- A- 15% 4% 81% D+ B+ C F F+ C D+ F F A- C+ D+ A+ C+ 34% 37% 29% C C+ B- A+ A D A+ F A+
1.14 100% 0% 39% +11 0 1.26 37% 0.8 .29 19% .32 61% .20 0.84 50% 41% 24% -6 -2 0.85 26% 0.5 .14 13% .10 100% .10
Dec
22		 Siena B- B- D A- B- 36% 13% 51% B B C F F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% C A+ A- D- B- F+ F A- F
1.18 63% 33% 39% +5 +1 1.13 32% 0.6 .18 19% .54 87% .47 0.87 39% 36% 18% -16 -1 0.67 24% 1.1 .26 13% .47 68% .32
Jan
4		 Washington A+ F A+ A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% A A+ A- A A A+ A- A+ A+ D- F B- A B- 31% 33% 37% B+ B A+ F D F F F F
1.41 42% 71% 50% +10 +1 1.24 34% 1.2 .41 6% .34 80% .27 1.26 73% 38% 28% +1 -2 1.00 27% 1.8 .47 6% .42 88% .37
Jan
7		 Maryland A C A+ D C- 52% 2% 46% A+ C+ A+ D+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A D D- A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% B- A+ B+ D- C D+ A- A A
1.22 58% 100% 30% -1 +3 1.06 40% 0.9 .37 16% .45 85% .38 0.96 63% 45% 10% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.3 .38 16% .29 65% .19
Jan
10		 Nebraska A B- A- B A 23% 19% 58% B+ A B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ A F F D+ 29% 10% 61% C+ D+ D+ B C C- B- D+ C+
1.15 64% 44% 36% +4 -1 1.08 31% 1.3 .41 21% .32 82% .26 1.24 53% 80% 42% +10 +1 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 12% .24 79% .19
Jan
13		 Michigan St. C+ A+ C- C A+ 24% 13% 62% B A+ C- A+ B- F D+ C+ D+ C- F F D F 38% 16% 47% D- F F A+ B- A+ F D F
0.93 82% 33% 32% +4 0 1.09 17% 1.0 .17 22% .22 73% .16 1.25 76% 57% 38% +13 +1 1.29 48% 0.8 .41 23% .48 79% .38
Jan
17		 Iowa C- B+ D+ D B- 44% 7% 49% A B A- F F A+ C C+ C D F C+ F D- 33% 29% 38% A+ D+ B+ A+ A C- F F F
0.99 67% 33% 30% +1 +2 1.07 35% 0.3 .12 16% .31 73% .23 1.29 79% 42% 44% +14 -1 1.26 29% 0.8 .24 14% .46 91% .42
Jan
20		 Michigan A A D- B A+ 25% 13% 62% A A+ F D- F+ A A A+ A+ B- B A+ F B- 48% 2% 50% D C+ B- C+ B- B+ F A- F
1.03 62% 29% 34% 0 0 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 14% .30 83% .25 1.23 57% 0% 41% +4 +3 1.16 38% 1.3 .50 19% .58 67% .39
Jan
23		 Rutgers A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 10% 65% B- A+ B+ F D+ A+ F A+ F+ A- A+ C+ A A 33% 37% 29% B A A+ F B+ F A F B-
1.39 58% 80% 47% +17 0 1.37 38% 0.7 .28 8% .13 100% .13 1.00 41% 37% 27% -9 -3 0.78 24% 1.3 .32 8% .26 86% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Purdue A A- A+ B- A 27% 7% 66% A+ A D+ A+ B+ A A+ A- A+ A A+ F D A- 38% 23% 38% C- B+ A C- A- B+ C A+ A-
1.17 67% 67% 34% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .33 13% .35 74% .26 1.09 50% 55% 39% +4 0 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .29 53% .16
Jan
31		 UCLA A- B- F+ C- C+ 33% 16% 51% B- B- F A+ B- A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ C+ B- A+ 33% 38% 29% B+ A+ A- F F D F F F
1.11 62% 30% 31% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.6 .31 12% .49 82% .40 1.09 38% 38% 33% -7 -3 0.83 27% 1.8 .50 11% .43 88% .38
Feb
3		 USC B- C- A+ C- B 37% 7% 56% A B+ D- D- D- A D+ A- C B- B+ D- F C- 29% 38% 33% A+ C+ D F F A- F F F
1.03 52% 100% 31% 0 +2 1.05 22% 0.8 .16 14% .26 81% .21 1.11 54% 47% 40% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.4 .54 21% .54 81% .43
Feb
7		 Wisconsin B+ B A+ F C- 50% 17% 33% A C+ A- A+ A+ A C- A+ B- B A+ F D+ A 35% 16% 49% B A D B+ C D A+ F A
1.14 59% 67% 17% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.13 37% 56% 37% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 10% .20 92% .18
Feb
9		 Oregon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 23% 51% C- A+ D- D D B+ A+ B- A+ C C- B C- C 31% 35% 35% A+ B- A+ F C- F F B D-
1.39 83% 82% 42% +23 -1 1.45 23% 0.8 .18 14% .47 78% .37 1.12 60% 35% 35% 0 -2 0.98 25% 1.8 .44 9% .41 68% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.4 0.3 0.7 4th
5th 0.4 2.3 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 5.5 2.8 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 5.9 10.2 0.6 16.8 7th
8th 2.7 15.2 4.7 0.1 22.6 8th
9th 0.5 11.3 11.4 0.5 23.7 9th
10th 0.2 4.1 11.0 1.8 17.0 10th
11th 0.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.4 0.3 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.2 9.2 27.0 34.7 21.2 6.0 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.7% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.0% 98.5% 2.5% 96.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.5%
12-8 21.2% 95.0% 1.2% 93.8% 8.1 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 6.0 5.0 2.3 0.4 1.1 94.9%
11-9 34.7% 80.6% 1.1% 79.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 5.2 7.5 8.6 4.6 6.8 80.4%
10-10 27.0% 57.3% 0.7% 56.6% 10.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.6 4.9 6.3 0.1 11.5 57.0%
9-11 9.2% 30.7% 0.4% 30.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.0 0.1 6.4 30.3%
8-12 1.2% 10.3% 10.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 10.3%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 73.2% 1.0% 72.1% 8.9 26.9 72.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 5.1 5.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 5.0
Lose Out 0.3%