Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+17.1#22
Pace74.2#71
Improvement-1.7#304

Offense
Total Offense+11.3#6
First Shot+11.9#3
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#207
Layup/Dunks+1.8#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#6
Freethrows+3.9#20
Improvement-1.8#318

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#28
First Shot+4.3#53
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#58
Layups/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#162
Freethrows+0.8#135
Improvement+0.1#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.6% 0.4%
#1 Seed 8.0% 10.0% 4.6%
Top 2 Seed 21.1% 25.8% 13.2%
Top 4 Seed 54.6% 61.8% 42.7%
Top 6 Seed 78.5% 84.4% 68.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.9% 98.4% 94.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 98.0% 93.2%
Average Seed 4.5 4.1 5.1
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 96.8% 93.1%
Conference Champion 20.7% 22.9% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 0.9% 2.7%
First Round96.3% 98.1% 93.3%
Second Round81.1% 84.9% 74.8%
Sweet Sixteen48.5% 53.0% 40.9%
Elite Eight23.4% 26.3% 18.5%
Final Four11.1% 12.8% 8.4%
Championship Game5.1% 5.9% 3.8%
National Champion2.1% 2.4% 1.7%

Next Game: Indiana (Neutral) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 7
Quad 27 - 115 - 8
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 46 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 352 South Carolina St. W 104-45 99%     1 - 0 +43.4 +10.1 +25.0
  Thu, Nov 6 312 Jackson St. W 106-70 99%     2 - 0 +24.6 +20.1 +1.2
  Tue, Nov 11 23 Kentucky W 96-88 71%     3 - 0 +20.0 +20.6 -1.3
  Sat, Nov 15 194 Ohio W 106-81 97%     4 - 0 +19.6 +20.9 -3.3
  Fri, Nov 21 68 Cincinnati W 74-64 82%     5 - 0 +18.4 +9.0 +9.2
  Mon, Nov 24 203 Eastern Michigan W 87-46 98%     6 - 0 +35.4 +16.3 +20.9
  Wed, Nov 26 351 NJIT W 104-47 99%     7 - 0 +41.7 +27.9 +14.6
  Wed, Dec 3 22 @Arkansas L 80-89 49%     7 - 1 +9.0 +9.9 -0.1
  Sat, Dec 6 24 Indiana W 80-77 62%    
  Sat, Dec 13 75 Memphis W 86-73 89%    
  Tue, Dec 16 16 @Tennessee L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Dec 20 197 Montana W 94-71 98%    
  Tue, Dec 30 69 @California W 84-77 74%    
  Fri, Jan 2 84 @Stanford W 85-77 78%    
  Tue, Jan 6 3 Duke L 77-78 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 132 Boston College W 83-64 96%    
  Tue, Jan 13 26 Virginia W 81-75 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 92 @Pittsburgh W 79-70 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 70 Virginia Tech W 87-74 88%    
  Mon, Jan 26 3 @Duke L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 40 SMU W 87-78 79%    
  Wed, Feb 4 56 Notre Dame W 81-70 85%    
  Sat, Feb 7 53 @Wake Forest W 83-78 67%    
  Mon, Feb 9 35 North Carolina St. W 89-81 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 28 Baylor W 85-81 65%    
  Tue, Feb 17 40 @SMU W 84-81 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 134 Georgia Tech W 87-68 95%    
  Mon, Feb 23 21 @North Carolina L 81-82 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 33 @Clemson W 77-75 56%    
  Tue, Mar 3 61 Syracuse W 83-71 85%    
  Sat, Mar 7 34 @Miami (FL) W 80-78 57%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.9 5.9 3.4 0.7 20.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.0 8.6 5.1 0.9 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 7.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 5.7 3.6 0.4 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.6 3.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 3.5 0.9 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.6 11.5 14.9 17.1 16.0 12.5 6.9 3.4 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.1 0.2
16-2 86.2% 5.9    4.1 1.8 0.1
15-3 54.9% 6.9    3.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 20.9% 3.3    0.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.7% 20.7 11.7 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 51.7% 48.3% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.4% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.9% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.9 2.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.5% 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 2.6 2.1 4.0 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.0% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 3.3 0.8 3.2 5.3 4.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.1% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 4.1 0.3 1.3 4.2 5.3 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.9% 99.7% 11.4% 88.3% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 4.3 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 11.5% 99.5% 8.5% 91.0% 6.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-8 7.6% 96.9% 6.3% 90.6% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 96.7%
9-9 4.9% 88.6% 3.9% 84.7% 8.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.6 88.1%
8-10 2.7% 68.3% 3.5% 64.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.8 67.2%
7-11 1.2% 39.8% 1.1% 38.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.7 39.2%
6-12 0.6% 11.8% 11.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 11.8%
5-13 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 5.9%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.9% 18.6% 78.3% 4.5 8.0 13.1 16.8 16.7 13.8 10.1 7.0 4.7 3.2 2.0 1.4 0.0 3.2 96.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.9 6.1