Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +18.3 #13
Expected Predictive Rating +14.6 #35
Pace 73.6 #66
Improvement -1.1 #245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #7 A+ B- B B A-
Defense #28 A+ A- C+ C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #207 1.38 #8 +3.6 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #357 0.93 #22 -4.0 #345
Three Pointers 54% #5 1.16 #22 +10.8 #3
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #1 +10.4 #1
Freethrows 18.6 #138 78% #20 14.5 #86
Second Chance 35.6% #52 1.02 #209 0.36 #93
Turnovers 14.9% #79
Total Offense +11.3 #7

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #335 1.04 #44 +6.1 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #12 0.59 #11 -0.9 #254
Three Pointers 40% #224 0.93 #73 +2.5 #92
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #13 +7.7 #13
Freethrows 17.1 #159 71% #100 12.1 #138
Second Chance 24.5% #18 0.97 #83 0.24 #21
Turnovers 17.2% #128
Total Defense +7.0 #28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #23 -3.2% #16
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.9% #8 -12.2% #19
Possession Length 14.7 #11 18.8 #344
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #307 0.07 #3
Improvement -1.2 #249 +0.0 #185

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 4.7% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 25.9% 28.1% 12.2%
Top 6 Seed 64.5% 67.4% 46.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.5% 98.0% 94.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.1% 97.7% 93.3%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 96.2% 84.5%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 2.8%
First Round97.0% 97.7% 93.1%
Second Round78.3% 79.7% 69.8%
Sweet Sixteen39.8% 41.4% 30.0%
Elite Eight18.8% 19.7% 13.5%
Final Four8.7% 9.1% 5.9%
Championship Game3.9% 4.2% 2.3%
National Champion1.6% 1.7% 1.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 359 South Carolina St. W 104 - 45 100% +40  1 - 0 +41 +8 A- D+ F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 325 Jackson St. W 106 - 70 99% +22  2 - 0 +23 +16 A+ C A +3 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 25 Kentucky W 96 - 88 70% +8  3 - 0 +21 +20 A+ B A+ -0 C+ B- A
 Sat, Nov 15 196 Ohio W 106 - 81 98% +14  4 - 0 +20 +21 A+ A+ B -4 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 49 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 76% +1  5 - 0 +21 +10 A- F B+ +11 B A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 198 Eastern Michigan W 87 - 46 98% +20  6 - 0 +35 +17 A+ C A+ +21 A+ A- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 336 NJIT W 104 - 47 99% +31  7 - 0 +43 +28 A+ A+ C+ +16 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 20 @Arkansas L 80 - 89 43% -10  7 - 1 +11 +8 B F A+ +3 A+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 37 Indiana W 87 - 78 68% +12  8 - 1 +22 +14 A+ F C +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 13 92 Memphis W 99 - 73 92% +17  9 - 1 +29 +29 A+ A+ B -1 A+ F F
 Tue, Dec 16 22 @Tennessee L 62 - 83 45% -11  9 - 2 -1 +1 B D+ F -2 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 161 Montana W 94 - 54 97% +17  10 - 2 +37 +13 A+ A+ F +21 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 75 @California W 90 - 70 77% +16  11 - 2 1 - 0 +31 +21 A+ A A- +9 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 77 @Stanford L 76 - 80 77% -3  11 - 3 1 - 1 +7 +16 C A+ B- -10 C F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 3 Duke L 73 - 84 46% +2  11 - 4 1 - 2 +8 +5 A- C+ B +4 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 134 Boston College W 75 - 62 96% -1  12 - 4 2 - 2 +12 +6 A+ F F +6 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 16 Virginia L 70 - 79 63% -2  12 - 5 2 - 3 +6 +8 A D A -3 A- B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 91 @Pittsburgh W 100 - 59 81% +27  13 - 5 3 - 3 +50 +38 A+ A+ A+ +15 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 58 Virginia Tech W 86 - 74 86%
 Mon, Jan 26 3 @Duke L 75 - 82 25%
 Sat, Jan 31 29 SMU W 87 - 80 74%
 Wed, Feb 4 84 Notre Dame W 82 - 68 91%
 Sat, Feb 7 63 @Wake Forest W 84 - 77 74%
 Mon, Feb 9 26 North Carolina St. W 84 - 78 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 41 Baylor W 85 - 79 72%
 Tue, Feb 17 29 @SMU W 84 - 83 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 113 Georgia Tech W 89 - 71 95%
 Mon, Feb 23 31 @North Carolina W 82 - 81 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 32 @Clemson W 74 - 73 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 67 Syracuse W 85 - 72 89%
 Sat, Mar 7 40 @Miami (FL) W 81 - 78 61%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +18 +11 A+ B- B +7 A+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 0.7 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.7 8.4 2.9 0.1 16.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 10.9 4.5 0.2 19.5 4th
5th 1.5 9.0 6.1 0.4 17.0 5th
6th 0.3 5.1 7.1 0.9 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 6.2 1.9 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.4 3.6 2.7 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 9.0 16.0 22.4 23.1 15.7 7.1 1.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 39.6% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 7.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.3% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.1% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 3.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.7% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 4.2 0.2 0.9 3.1 5.4 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 23.1% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 7.6 6.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.4% 99.7% 11.1% 88.6% 6.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.8 7.2 5.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.6%
10-8 16.0% 98.7% 9.1% 89.6% 7.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.6 4.7 3.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 98.6%
9-9 9.0% 94.1% 6.7% 87.4% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.5 93.7%
8-10 3.8% 78.7% 3.1% 75.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.8 78.0%
7-11 1.3% 52.1% 2.3% 49.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 51.0%
6-12 0.3% 12.7% 12.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.7%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.5% 14.4% 83.1% 5.8 2.5 97.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 67.1 31.5 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.2 14.0 55.8 30.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 2.2 25.0 41.2 23.5 10.3