Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.5 11
Expected Predictive Rating +16.9 27
Pace 74.5 46
Improvement +0.6 161

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A #8 A B- B- B- A-
Defense B+ #21 A- B+ C+ B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 160 69% 10 +4.7 36
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 358 48% 10 -4.1 349
Three Pointers 53% 10 38% 26 +9.7 3
1st FG Attempt 1.22 2 +10.3 2
Second Chance 35.4% 54 0.99 226 0.35 97
Turnovers 15.2% 76
Freethrows 0.32 135 77% 20 0.25 86
Total Offense +11.7 8

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 334 51% 39 +6.1 20
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 18 29% 3 -0.4 222
Three Pointers 40% 211 32% 95 +1.6 117
1st FG Attempt 0.87 12 +7.3 12
Second Chance 24.5% 19 0.95 80 0.23 27
Turnovers 17.8% 126
Freethrows 0.28 88 70% 83 0.20 77
Total Defense +7.8 21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.7 16 -1.5 18
Shot Type Accuracy +8.1 9 -5.9 18
Possession Length 14.7 10 18.6 341
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 272 0.06 1
Improvement -0.8 #238 +1.4 #108

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 2% 3% 0%
Top 2 Seed 8% 10% 3%
Top 4 Seed 47% 53% 30%
Top 6 Seed 87% 91% 77%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 99%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 99%
Average Seed 4.7 4.4 5.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 99%
Second Round88% 90% 84%
Sweet Sixteen51% 54% 44%
Elite Eight23% 25% 19%
Final Four11% 12% 8%
Championship Game5% 5% 3%
National Champion2% 2% 1%

Next Game: Baylor (Neutral) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 014 - 9
Quad 34 - 018 - 9
Quad 47 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 358 South Carolina St. W 104 - 45 100% +40  98% 1 - 0 A+ +41 B +6 B C- F A+ +26 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 343 Jackson St. W 106 - 70 100% +22  94% 2 - 0 A +21 A +12 A- C+ B B +5 F+ A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 24 Kentucky W 96 - 88 73% +8  95% 3 - 0 A +21 A+ +18 A B A+ B- +2 C+ B- A-
 Sat, Nov 15 199 Ohio W 106 - 81 98% +14  99% 4 - 0 A +19 A+ +18 A- A+ B C -1 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 45 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 77% +1  47% 5 - 0 A +22 B+ +8 B F B- A+ +14 B A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 231 Eastern Michigan W 87 - 46 98% +20  89% 6 - 0 A+ +34 A +14 A+ C A A+ +22 A+ B+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 315 NJIT W 104 - 47 99% +31  99% 7 - 0 A+ +45 A+ +26 A+ A+ B- A+ +19 A+ A D
 Wed, Dec 3 19 @Arkansas L 80 - 89 44% -10  0% 7 - 1 B+ +12 B +6 B F A+ B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 29 Indiana W 87 - 78 68% +12  99% 8 - 1 A+ +24 A +12 A+ F C- A +11 A+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 86 Memphis W 99 - 73 93% +17  92% 9 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +27 A+ A+ B+ C+ +2 A+ D- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 18 @Tennessee L 62 - 83 44% -11  2% 9 - 2 C +0 C- -1 B- D+ F C+ +1 F+ A D
 Sat, Dec 20 170 Montana W 94 - 54 97% +17  97% 10 - 2 A+ +36 A +12 A- A+ D- A+ +22 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 73 @California W 90 - 70 80% +16  99% 11 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +18 A+ A- B A +12 A+ A- D-
 Fri, Jan 2 74 @Stanford L 76 - 80 80% -3  21% 11 - 3 1 - 1 B- +7 A +13 B- A C+ D -7 C+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 6 3 Duke L 73 - 84 46% +2  64% 11 - 4 1 - 2 B +10 B- +4 B B- B- B+ +6 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 129 Boston College W 75 - 62 96% -1  25% 12 - 4 2 - 2 B+ +12 B- +4 A+ F+ D- A- +8 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 23 Virginia L 70 - 79 72% -9  0% 12 - 5 2 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 B C- A C -1 C B- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 99 @Pittsburgh W 100 - 59 85% +27  99% 13 - 5 3 - 3 A+ +49 A+ +35 A+ A+ A A+ +17 A A C-
 Sat, Jan 24 55 Virginia Tech W 85 - 71 87% +9  92% 14 - 5 4 - 3 A +21 A +12 A- A+ D A- +9 C+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 26 3 @Duke L 52 - 83 25% -12  2% 14 - 6 4 - 4 C- -4 D -6 C- D+ B- C -1 B- C- B
 Sat, Jan 31 37 SMU W 88 - 74 79% -1  36% 15 - 6 5 - 4 A+ +25 A- +9 A+ D+ A- A+ +15 B+ A- A+
 Wed, Feb 4 82 Notre Dame W 76 - 65 92% +3  63% 16 - 6 6 - 4 A- +15 C+ +3 B B- D A +12 A+ C- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 63 @Wake Forest W 88 - 80 78% +7  98% 17 - 6 7 - 4 A +19 A+ +17 A+ B- A B- +3 B+ B F
 Mon, Feb 9 27 North Carolina St. W 118 - 77 75% +21  99% 18 - 6 8 - 4 A+ +53 A+ +32 A+ F A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 42 Baylor W 86 - 79 74%
 Tue, Feb 17 37 @SMU W 86 - 84 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 131 Georgia Tech W 92 - 71 97%
 Mon, Feb 23 26 @North Carolina W 83 - 82 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 38 @Clemson W 74 - 71 60%
 Tue, Mar 3 67 Syracuse W 87 - 73 91%
 Sat, Mar 7 41 @Miami (FL) W 83 - 79 64%
Totals 23 - 8 12 - 6 +20 A +12 A B- B- B+ +8 A- B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A A B+ A 39% 8% 53% A- A B C- B- B- C+ B+ B- B+ B+ A B- A- 32% 28% 40% A- A- A- B- B+ C+ B- B- B-
1.25 69% 48% 38% +8 +2 1.22 35% 1.0 .35 15% .32 77% .25 0.97 51% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.87 25% 1.0 .23 18% .28 70% .23
Nov
3		 South Carolina St. B A F B B 44% 6% 50% B- B D+ C+ C- F A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 24% 41% 35% B+ A+ B A- B+ A+ F+ F F
1.28 75% 0% 37% +8 +2 1.22 36% 1.3 .45 21% .51 79% .40 0.55 42% 15% 12% -25 -4 0.45 26% 0.8 .21 31% .39 77% .30
Nov
6		 Jackson St. A A A+ C B+ 48% 5% 46% A A- B C- C+ B A+ B- A+ B A C+ F F+ 30% 25% 45% C- F+ A A+ A+ D- C+ A+ A-
1.37 74% 67% 35% +10 +3 1.27 41% 1.0 .41 13% .52 74% .39 0.91 41% 36% 44% +1 -1 1.02 17% 0.6 .10 16% .25 56% .14
Nov
11		 Kentucky A+ B A+ C- A- 30% 13% 57% B+ A B B B A+ A+ D- A+ B- D+ D+ C C 32% 18% 51% B- C+ B C- B- A- A C- A-
1.25 61% 63% 31% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.9 .29 8% .44 68% .30 1.15 67% 40% 34% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.2 .40 18% .26 75% .19
Nov
15		 Ohio A+ C+ C- A+ A 35% 15% 50% C+ A- A A+ A+ B A+ C A+ C C+ D- F F 27% 31% 42% A D- D- A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
1.39 58% 38% 44% +8 +1 1.19 44% 1.5 .67 14% .46 73% .34 1.06 57% 50% 41% +8 -2 1.13 33% 0.4 .14 22% .44 77% .34
Nov
21		 Cincinnati B+ A+ F D+ B 30% 13% 57% B B B+ F F B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- B 37% 24% 39% C+ B A- A+ A+ B C B+ B-
1.04 71% 17% 31% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.4 .11 18% .48 86% .41 0.90 58% 25% 35% -2 0 0.96 27% 0.5 .12 18% .27 63% .17
Nov
24		 Eastern Michigan A C A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B+ A+ B- D+ C A C+ D- C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 42% 25% A+ A+ B- A B+ B- D- B- D
1.30 57% 60% 46% +11 +2 1.27 32% 0.9 .30 12% .32 68% .22 0.69 44% 20% 17% -19 -3 0.58 25% 0.7 .18 19% .31 71% .22
Nov
26		 NJIT A+ A+ F A+ A+ 28% 4% 68% B A+ A+ C A+ B- F A+ F+ A+ C A+ A+ A 20% 35% 45% A+ A+ A+ F A D A+ A+ A+
1.51 75% 0% 44% +13 +1 1.32 53% 1.1 .55 13% .23 86% .20 0.68 55% 21% 24% -13 -3 0.69 7% 1.7 .12 16% .12 57% .07
Dec
3		 Arkansas B B+ A+ F C+ 42% 7% 51% A B C+ F F A+ B- A+ B+ B+ A+ C A+ A+ 37% 33% 30% A+ A+ F F F C+ F D+ F
1.06 64% 50% 23% -5 +2 0.97 30% 0.8 .23 12% .27 78% .21 1.18 45% 39% 25% -8 -2 0.81 43% 1.5 .64 13% .53 77% .41
Dec
6		 Indiana A B F A+ A+ 35% 6% 58% A+ A+ D+ F F C- A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ B+ A+ 35% 9% 56% C+ A+ B F F A- B- C B-
1.17 59% 0% 46% +9 +2 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 18% .46 86% .39 1.05 53% 20% 30% -7 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 18% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Memphis A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 10% 61% B A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- A B A 35% 47% 18% A+ A+ C- F+ D- F+ D+ C+ D+
1.38 86% 0% 50% +19 +1 1.41 32% 1.5 .48 18% .43 84% .36 1.02 55% 26% 30% -8 -4 0.79 38% 1.3 .50 15% .33 70% .23
Dec
16		 Tennessee C- B+ A+ F C 38% 4% 58% A B- A- F D+ F B+ D- B- C+ F D F+ F+ 47% 20% 33% C- F+ A+ C+ A D F A- D-
0.90 63% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 32% 0.6 .19 23% .34 61% .21 1.20 71% 44% 40% +11 +1 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 16% .48 64% .31
Dec
20		 Montana A A+ F D- B+ 42% 5% 53% A A- A A+ A+ D- C+ B B- A+ B A+ A+ A+ 27% 27% 47% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- F C
1.26 83% 0% 28% +3 +2 1.13 40% 1.5 .60 19% .31 74% .23 0.72 54% 15% 26% -13 -2 0.73 11% 0.8 .08 25% .27 87% .23
Dec
30		 California A+ C A+ A+ A+ 43% 3% 53% A A+ A+ C A- B F+ A+ C A A+ A B A+ 31% 21% 48% C A+ A+ C- A- D- F C F
1.26 56% 50% 42% +6 +3 1.19 39% 0.9 .37 14% .23 86% .20 0.98 31% 27% 32% -12 -1 0.77 19% 1.1 .21 11% .43 78% .33
Jan
2		 Stanford A A+ A+ F C+ 33% 16% 51% B- B- A+ F A C+ A- A+ A+ D C+ B F D+ 36% 27% 36% A+ C+ D- D D- D+ F B+ F
1.19 71% 57% 23% -1 0 1.00 51% 0.8 .43 19% .41 86% .35 1.25 56% 33% 44% +3 -1 1.07 40% 1.1 .43 14% .57 68% .38
Jan
6		 Duke B- F+ A+ C+ B 25% 15% 60% B B C+ A- B- B- C- B+ C B+ D- F C- D 41% 20% 39% A C- A+ A+ A+ C F B+ D-
0.98 43% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 19% .20 75% .15 1.13 71% 60% 35% +10 0 1.24 23% 0.5 .11 16% .45 68% .30
Jan
10		 Boston College B- A+ B+ D A+ 39% 15% 46% B A+ D- F F+ D- A+ A+ A+ A- B+ C+ C- C 17% 36% 47% A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F B A+ A
1.08 83% 43% 29% +7 +1 1.17 20% 0.7 .13 19% .44 76% .33 0.89 50% 38% 33% -2 -4 0.91 16% 0.4 .07 9% .25 44% .11
Jan
13		 Virginia B- F A+ B B- 35% 12% 54% A B A F C- A C+ D- C C A- A+ F D 14% 23% 63% A+ C C- B+ B- A- F F F
1.06 33% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 12% .31 67% .21 1.19 50% 30% 44% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 20% .55 79% .43
Jan
17		 Pittsburgh A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 8% 51% A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A C- A+ C+ A+ B A- A A+ 35% 20% 45% B A A+ D- A C- C B C+
1.53 73% 75% 48% +20 +2 1.45 27% 1.8 .50 12% .26 87% .23 0.90 53% 30% 27% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.1 .24 15% .29 63% .18
Jan
24		 Virginia Tech A B- A C B 48% 4% 48% A+ A- A A+ A+ D C B+ C+ A- A+ A F C- 20% 29% 51% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.20 60% 50% 32% 0 +3 1.08 41% 1.3 .54 21% .23 77% .18 1.00 27% 25% 54% +5 -2 1.07 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 63% .09
Jan
26		 Duke D F F C D+ 28% 6% 66% A C- C F+ D+ B- B C- B- C B- F C+ B 54% 4% 42% D- B- F A- C- B C+ C C+
0.80 38% 0% 32% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.6 .12 19% .25 69% .17 1.28 59% 100% 33% +3 +3 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 19% .34 72% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 SMU A- A+ D+ C- A+ 35% 11% 54% A A+ D+ C- D+ A- A C A A+ F C- B B 22% 33% 44% A+ B+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 90% 33% 32% +9 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .24 15% .36 70% .25 0.99 75% 44% 33% +6 -3 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 21% .15 67% .10
Feb
4		 Notre Dame C+ A A+ F C+ 45% 8% 47% A+ B A+ F B- D B C- B- A A A+ D A+ 26% 30% 44% A A+ B+ F C- B- A- A+ A+
1.10 70% 75% 21% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.7 .28 17% .32 72% .23 0.94 50% 19% 38% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.2 .33 17% .25 43% .11
Feb
7		 Wake Forest A+ B A+ A- A+ 41% 13% 46% B A+ F+ A+ B- A A+ B A+ B- D- A+ C+ B 28% 32% 40% A+ B+ B C B F F+ B D-
1.24 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 21% 1.7 .36 16% .52 77% .40 1.13 67% 29% 33% -1 -2 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 8% .39 72% .28
Feb
9		 North Carolina St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% A- A+ C+ F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% A+ A+ A+ F A+ C B+ F C
1.47 69% 50% 62% +27 +2 1.59 27% 0.3 .07 12% .38 81% .31 0.96 75% 21% 15% -8 -1 0.84 15% 1.5 .23 12% .27 89% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 3.9 7.5 11.5 2nd
3rd 2.3 15.8 4.4 22.5 3rd
4th 0.2 10.9 9.5 0.1 20.8 4th
5th 3.4 15.0 1.5 19.9 5th
6th 0.4 8.8 4.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.1 5.6 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.4 2.5 0.8 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.7 5.2 18.7 32.3 30.8 12.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 12.3% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.7 1.7 3.6 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 30.8% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 3.9 0.3 2.4 8.3 10.9 6.8 2.0 0.2 100.0%
12-6 32.3% 99.9% 15.8% 84.1% 4.9 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.7 11.1 7.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 18.7% 99.7% 13.1% 86.6% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.8 5.8 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-8 5.2% 97.9% 8.1% 89.7% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 97.7%
9-9 0.7% 90.8% 3.1% 87.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 90.5%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 17.5% 82.3% 4.7 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 1.6 45.1 45.1 9.3 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 100.0% 2.5 7.6 43.3 37.1 11.6 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 100.0% 2.9 5.7 28.0 44.3 19.5 2.0 0.4