Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.8 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +12.3 #44
Pace 70.0 #156
Improvement +0.6 #151

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #65 B B B+ B C-
Defense #60 B+ C B A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #230 1.34 #21 +2.4 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #147 0.72 #218 +0.2 #161
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.05 #142 +0.8 #150
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #87 +3.4 #86
Freethrows 20.3 #60 73% #169 14.8 #69
Second Chance 32.7% #120 1.14 #60 0.37 #71
Turnovers 14.3% #58
Total Offense +5.3 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #219 1.11 #117 +1.5 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #57 0.79 #246 -2.1 #326
Three Pointers 38% #273 0.85 #17 +4.8 #26
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #54 +4.2 #55
Freethrows 13.8 #25 72% #182 10.0 #27
Second Chance 30.5% #181 1.01 #137 0.31 #153
Turnovers 18.3% #76
Total Defense +4.6 #60

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #230 -1.2% #76
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #71 -7.1% #60
Possession Length 16.7 #114 17.9 #271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #193 0.08 #6
Improvement +0.2 #162 +0.3 #164

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 2.1% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.6% 63.4% 35.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.3% 63.1% 35.4%
Average Seed 9.6 9.1 9.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 51.9% 79.0% 47.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four12.3% 11.3% 12.4%
First Round32.8% 57.3% 28.8%
Second Round11.8% 21.8% 10.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.8% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 14.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 234 Charleston Southern W 98 - 67 93% +13  1 - 0 +24 +12 B- A+ B+ +9 A A B+
 Sat, Nov 8 65 Providence W 107 - 101 OT 55% +0  2 - 0 +14 +11 A A- A +2 A B- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 159 Saint Joseph's W 94 - 59 88% +20  3 - 0 +32 +17 A+ B+ A+ +13 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 173 Charlotte W 84 - 76 90% +8  4 - 0 +4 +12 F A- A+ -7 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 343 Bryant W 78 - 61 98% +5  5 - 0 +2 +1 C- A+ C- +1 D+ B C
 Wed, Nov 26 96 Colorado St. W 66 - 64 66% +3  6 - 0 +7 +0 B+ F B+ +8 A+ D C
 Thu, Nov 27 42 St. Mary's L 66 - 77 41% -8  6 - 1 +1 +2 D+ D+ B- -1 D+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 55 Virginia Commonwealth L 68 - 86 48% -10  6 - 2 -8 -2 C- B- C- -6 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 69 @South Carolina W 86 - 83 OT 45% +4  7 - 2 +14 +10 A A+ A- +3 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 86 George Mason W 73 - 62 71% +10  8 - 2 +15 +8 A+ D- B +8 A+ D A+
 Thu, Dec 11 289 Western Carolina W 96 - 74 96% +15  9 - 2 +12 +13 A+ A+ C -2 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 14 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 53 97% +10  10 - 2 +15 +11 A+ F A+ +6 A- B C
 Sat, Dec 20 184 Elon W 82 - 81 OT 91% -6  11 - 2 -4 +4 D- A+ F -7 C F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 16 Virginia W 95 - 85 3OT 31% +8  12 - 2 1 - 0 +25 +3 F A+ B- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 63 @Wake Forest L 78 - 81 43% -4  12 - 3 1 - 1 +9 +7 A C F +2 A+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 77 Stanford L 68 - 69 69% +5  12 - 4 1 - 2 +4 +9 B- D+ A+ -6 C C- D
 Sat, Jan 10 75 California W 78 - 75 69% -2  13 - 4 2 - 2 +8 +11 B+ B B -4 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 14 29 @SMU L 76 - 77 24% +0  13 - 5 2 - 3 +16 +10 B+ C+ A+ +6 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 84 Notre Dame W 89 - 76 71% +11  14 - 5 3 - 3 +17 +18 A A+ F -1 A- F B
 Wed, Jan 21 67 @Syracuse W 76 - 74 45% -2  15 - 5 4 - 3 +13 +9 B+ F A+ +5 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 13 @Louisville L 74 - 86 14%
 Tue, Jan 27 113 Georgia Tech W 81 - 72 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 3 Duke L 70 - 79 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 26 @North Carolina St. L 73 - 81 22%
 Wed, Feb 11 32 @Clemson L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 111 Florida St. W 85 - 76 81%
 Tue, Feb 17 40 @Miami (FL) L 73 - 79 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 63 Wake Forest W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 31 @North Carolina L 75 - 82 25%
 Tue, Mar 3 134 Boston College W 75 - 64 85%
 Sat, Mar 7 16 @Virginia L 67 - 78 15%
Totals 20 - 11 9 - 9 +10 +5 B B B+ +5 B+ C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 4th
5th 1.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.4 4.4 2.8 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 3.8 6.5 0.8 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 9.1 3.7 0.1 14.4 8th
9th 0.3 6.6 8.3 0.7 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.0 2.3 10.2 3.1 0.0 15.6 10th
11th 0.2 5.7 5.3 0.4 11.6 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 5.1 1.3 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.1 2.2 2.0 0.1 4.4 13th
14th 0.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
17th 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.9 15.7 25.2 25.1 16.4 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 8.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 6.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.3% 97.1% 1.5% 95.6% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.1%
11-7 7.6% 90.7% 1.5% 89.2% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.7 90.6%
10-8 16.4% 74.5% 0.7% 73.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 4.9 2.1 4.2 74.3%
9-9 25.1% 47.3% 0.6% 46.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.7 4.9 0.0 13.2 46.9%
8-10 25.2% 20.2% 0.2% 20.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.5 0.1 20.1 20.1%
7-11 15.7% 4.5% 0.0% 4.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 15.0 4.5%
6-12 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.6% 0.5% 39.1% 9.6 60.4 39.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%