Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#113
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#163
Pace80.7#7
Improvement-7.2#364

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#119
First Shot+0.8#154
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#96
Layup/Dunks+1.2#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#63
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement-2.0#324

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#121
First Shot-0.9#198
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#26
Layups/Dunks+0.2#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement-5.2#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.0 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 8.1% 22.8% 7.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 21.3% 6.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.5% 6.9% 23.6%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 22 - 64 - 18
Quad 31 - 25 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 337 Alcorn St. W 108-76 94%     1 - 0 +18.0 +20.7 -5.1
  Fri, Nov 7 281 Alabama St. W 101-64 88%     2 - 0 +27.5 +11.0 +12.6
  Tue, Nov 11 12 @Florida L 76-78 6%     2 - 1 +19.0 +3.9 +15.4
  Tue, Nov 18 214 Tennessee Martin W 87-73 82%     3 - 1 +7.5 +5.7 +0.8
  Fri, Nov 21 213 Georgia Southern W 98-72 82%     4 - 1 +19.6 +4.5 +11.0
  Tue, Nov 25 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89-59 91%     5 - 1 +18.8 -0.4 +15.0
  Fri, Nov 28 43 Texas A&M L 59-95 21%     5 - 2 -24.2 -13.3 -8.2
  Tue, Dec 2 22 Georgia L 73-107 19%     5 - 3 -21.1 -2.2 -15.3
  Sat, Dec 6 8 Houston L 67-82 7%     5 - 4 +5.3 +5.0 +0.1
  Sat, Dec 13 164 Massachusetts L 95-103 65%     5 - 5 -8.4 +10.8 -18.1
  Tue, Dec 16 68 @Dayton L 69-97 23%     5 - 6 -16.9 -4.3 -9.8
  Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96-49 99%     6 - 6 +20.9 +7.0 +11.1
  Mon, Dec 22 317 Jacksonville W 87-63 92%     7 - 6 +11.9 +15.5 -1.8
  Tue, Dec 30 21 @North Carolina L 72-88 7%    
  Sat, Jan 3 4 Duke L 72-87 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 28 North Carolina St. L 80-88 22%    
  Tue, Jan 13 75 @Syracuse L 77-84 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 61 Wake Forest L 81-83 41%    
  Tue, Jan 20 35 @Miami (FL) L 75-88 11%    
  Sat, Jan 24 42 @SMU L 78-90 14%    
  Wed, Jan 28 65 California L 78-80 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 81 Stanford L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 64 @Notre Dame L 72-80 23%    
  Tue, Feb 10 26 Virginia L 76-85 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 74 @Virginia Tech L 78-85 25%    
  Tue, Feb 17 156 Boston College W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 40 @Clemson L 69-81 14%    
  Tue, Feb 24 35 Miami (FL) L 78-85 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 129 @Georgia Tech L 79-81 44%    
  Wed, Mar 4 84 @Pittsburgh L 74-80 29%    
  Sat, Mar 7 42 SMU L 81-87 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.1 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.7 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.1 0.2 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 2.0 4.1 0.8 0.0 7.0 12th
13th 0.0 1.1 4.8 2.6 0.2 8.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.2 0.9 0.0 10.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.8 2.3 0.1 12.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 3.2 7.4 4.1 0.4 15.4 16th
17th 0.4 3.0 6.8 4.6 0.8 0.0 15.7 17th
18th 0.7 3.0 5.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 12.6 18th
Total 0.7 3.3 8.2 13.7 16.6 17.2 15.0 10.9 6.9 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 53.8% 3.8% 50.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.0%
12-6 0.3% 13.5% 1.1% 12.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.5%
11-7 0.9% 7.7% 1.2% 6.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.6%
10-8 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.9%
9-9 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.2%
8-10 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 6.9
7-11 10.9% 10.9
6-12 15.0% 15.0
5-13 17.2% 17.2
4-14 16.6% 16.6
3-15 13.7% 13.7
2-16 8.2% 8.2
1-17 3.3% 3.3
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%