Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.6 #111
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #144
Pace 78.3 #17
Improvement -3.6 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 C A- B C B+
Defense #131 C C A C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.21 #120 +0.9 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #342 0.70 #260 -3.8 #341
Three Pointers 50% #25 0.92 #296 +2.2 #106
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #202 -0.7 #199
Freethrows 16.9 #234 73% #173 12.3 #207
Second Chance 33.2% #108 1.24 #16 0.41 #39
Turnovers 14.5% #65
Total Offense +2.6 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.18 #201 +2.1 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.79 #233 -0.5 #214
Three Pointers 45% #77 1.03 #212 -2.3 #283
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #200 -0.7 #199
Freethrows 16.7 #129 73% #203 12.1 #137
Second Chance 31.5% #226 0.99 #108 0.31 #163
Turnovers 20.3% #21
Total Defense +1.1 #131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #40 -0.7% #107
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #231 2.0% #219
Possession Length 14.2 #4 17.9 #264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #163 0.18 #197
Improvement -0.7 #221 -2.9 #328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 n/a
.500 or above 2.0% 6.9% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 5.8% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.5% 16.2% 37.6%
First Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 9.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 22 - 64 - 18
Quad 31 - 25 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 347 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 95% +17  1 - 0 +17 +20 B+ B A+ -6 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 311 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 92% +20  2 - 0 +25 +11 D A+ D+ +10 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 10 @Florida L 76 - 78 4% -1  2 - 1 +21 +4 D C+ A+ +17 A A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 226 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 84% +19  3 - 1 +7 +7 B- F A+ -1 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 251 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 86% +14  4 - 1 +18 +4 C- C A+ +10 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 91% +13  5 - 1 +19 -0 D B+ F +15 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 34 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 17% -22  5 - 2 -22 -12 F C+ C -8 D+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 24 Georgia L 73 - 107 19% -19  5 - 3 -21 -2 C C A+ -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 4 Houston L 67 - 82 6% -10  5 - 4 +7 +6 C A+ F +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 176 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 68% -5  5 - 5 -9 +9 A- C B -17 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 73 @Dayton L 69 - 97 25% -13  5 - 6 -17 -3 D D+ D- -11 D+ B- C-
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +32  6 - 6 +20 +8 F C B+ +9 A B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 292 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 90% +18  7 - 6 +13 +17 C A+ A -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 31 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 11% -7  7 - 7 0 - 1 +4 +0 F A+ C+ +4 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 3 3 Duke L 87 - 91 8% -0  7 - 8 0 - 2 +15 +24 A+ A+ B -9 D B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 26 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 21% -24  7 - 9 0 - 3 -32 -5 F A+ A+ -22 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 67 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 23% -1  7 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +15 A+ A+ C- -12 F D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 63 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 42% +3  7 - 11 0 - 5 +5 +3 D A+ D- +2 B+ D+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 40 @Miami (FL) W 65 - 63 14% +0  8 - 11 1 - 5 +17 +1 B+ F B- +16 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 29 @SMU L 77 - 91 10%
 Wed, Jan 28 75 California L 79 - 80 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 77 Stanford L 79 - 80 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 84 @Notre Dame L 72 - 79 27%
 Tue, Feb 10 16 Virginia L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 58 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 85 19%
 Tue, Feb 17 134 Boston College W 76 - 71 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 32 @Clemson L 67 - 80 11%
 Tue, Feb 24 40 Miami (FL) L 78 - 84 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 113 @Georgia Tech L 80 - 83 40%
 Wed, Mar 4 91 @Pittsburgh L 75 - 80 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 29 SMU L 80 - 88 24%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 13 +4 +3 C A- B +1 C C A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.2 2.6 1.0 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 2.3 3.2 0.3 5.8 12th
13th 0.8 5.3 1.9 0.0 8.0 13th
14th 0.2 4.9 5.7 0.4 11.2 14th
15th 0.1 3.0 9.0 2.1 0.0 14.1 15th
16th 0.0 1.3 8.5 5.7 0.3 0.0 15.9 16th
17th 0.7 6.4 8.3 1.1 0.0 16.5 17th
18th 1.5 6.9 8.6 2.4 0.1 19.4 18th
Total 1.5 7.6 16.4 22.4 21.5 15.9 9.1 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.6%
9-9 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 1.3 0.4%
8-10 3.9% 3.9
7-11 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 9.1
6-12 15.9% 15.9
5-13 21.5% 21.5
4-14 22.4% 22.4
3-15 16.4% 16.4
2-16 7.6% 7.6
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%