Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#305
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#261
Pace72.0#110
Improvement+0.6#138

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#317
First Shot-6.7#347
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#86
Layup/Dunks-3.2#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.4#361
Freethrows+3.2#23
Improvement-0.8#237

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#273
First Shot+0.2#160
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#345
Layups/Dunks-2.3#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#40
Freethrows-1.1#267
Improvement+1.5#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 1.6% 4.0% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 11.6% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.3% 28.7% 51.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 25.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 83 - 14
Quad 47 - 710 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 65 @California L 60-87 5%     0 - 1 -15.7 -9.7 -4.9
  Tue, Nov 11 356 Western Illinois W 74-58 79%     1 - 1 -0.8 -2.8 +2.8
  Fri, Nov 14 63 @Mississippi L 60-82 4%     1 - 2 -10.5 +0.8 -14.0
  Mon, Nov 17 173 @Portland St. L 80-93 17%     1 - 3 -11.0 +7.4 -17.7
  Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-70 94%     2 - 3 -10.1 -2.9 -8.2
  Tue, Nov 25 113 @Florida St. L 59-89 9%     2 - 4 -23.5 -18.9 -0.6
  Sun, Nov 30 184 @Fresno St. W 76-71 18%     3 - 4 +6.3 +2.9 +3.4
  Thu, Dec 4 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 66-87 23%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -21.3 -11.6 -8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 84-109 14%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -21.3 +7.0 -27.3
  Thu, Dec 11 155 North Dakota St. L 69-80 30%     3 - 7 -13.6 -8.3 -4.8
  Sat, Dec 13 262 Pepperdine L 62-70 52%     3 - 8 -16.6 -10.7 -6.2
  Tue, Dec 23 177 Idaho W 64-63 35%     4 - 8 -3.2 -7.5 +4.4
  Thu, Jan 1 131 UC Irvine L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Jan 3 176 @UC Davis L 70-80 17%    
  Thu, Jan 8 272 UC Riverside W 75-74 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 275 @Long Beach St. L 72-77 32%    
  Thu, Jan 15 150 UC Santa Barbara L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 83 UC San Diego L 70-82 13%    
  Fri, Jan 23 109 @Hawaii L 63-78 8%    
  Thu, Jan 29 257 Cal Poly W 83-82 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 176 UC Davis L 73-77 36%    
  Thu, Feb 5 131 @UC Irvine L 64-77 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 @Cal St. Fullerton L 78-85 28%    
  Thu, Feb 12 109 Hawaii L 66-75 21%    
  Thu, Feb 19 272 @UC Riverside L 72-77 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 242 Cal St. Fullerton L 81-82 48%    
  Thu, Feb 26 83 @UC San Diego L 67-85 5%    
  Sat, Feb 28 275 Long Beach St. W 75-74 53%    
  Thu, Mar 5 212 Cal St. Northridge L 79-81 43%    
  Sat, Mar 7 257 @Cal Poly L 79-85 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 6.1 8.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 21.6 10th
11th 0.7 3.1 7.0 9.7 8.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 32.8 11th
Total 0.7 3.1 7.2 11.6 15.1 16.7 15.2 11.9 8.6 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 15.4% 0.0    0.0
13-7 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 6.3% 6.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-10 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.9
9-11 4.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.9
8-12 8.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
5-15 16.7% 16.7
4-16 15.1% 15.1
3-17 11.6% 11.6
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 3.1% 3.1
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%