Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#280
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#226
Pace70.6#160
Improvement-0.6#237

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#279
First Shot-6.5#341
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#53
Layup/Dunks-1.5#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.0#363
Freethrows+4.5#12
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#249
First Shot+0.1#162
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#316
Layups/Dunks-3.9#313
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#23
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement-0.7#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 11.5% 23.8% 9.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 31.5% 12.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 23.3% 10.4% 26.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 49 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 69 @California L 60-87 6%     0 - 1 -16.0 -10.8 -4.0
  Tue, Nov 11 361 Western Illinois W 74-58 85%     1 - 1 -1.5 -4.8 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 14 58 @Mississippi L 60-82 5%     1 - 2 -9.6 -0.6 -11.7
  Mon, Nov 17 156 @Portland St. L 80-93 18%     1 - 3 -10.0 +6.7 -16.0
  Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-70 95%     2 - 3 -9.1 -2.8 -7.4
  Tue, Nov 25 100 @Florida St. L 59-89 9%     2 - 4 -22.0 -16.9 -1.0
  Sun, Nov 30 179 @Fresno St. W 76-71 22%     3 - 4 +6.6 +3.6 +2.9
  Thu, Dec 4 253 @Cal St. Northridge L 66-87 34%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -23.2 -10.6 -11.5
  Sat, Dec 6 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-79 17%    
  Thu, Dec 11 149 North Dakota St. L 70-74 36%    
  Sat, Dec 13 298 Pepperdine W 73-69 65%    
  Tue, Dec 23 187 Idaho L 72-74 45%    
  Thu, Jan 1 125 UC Irvine L 66-72 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 168 @UC Davis L 66-75 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 271 UC Riverside W 74-71 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 286 @Long Beach St. L 70-73 41%    
  Thu, Jan 15 148 UC Santa Barbara L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 102 UC San Diego L 70-78 22%    
  Fri, Jan 23 108 @Hawaii L 66-80 11%    
  Thu, Jan 29 243 Cal Poly W 82-81 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 168 UC Davis L 69-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 125 @UC Irvine L 63-75 13%    
  Sat, Feb 7 303 @Cal St. Fullerton L 80-82 44%    
  Thu, Feb 12 108 Hawaii L 69-77 25%    
  Thu, Feb 19 271 @UC Riverside L 71-74 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-79 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 102 @UC San Diego L 67-81 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 286 Long Beach St. W 73-70 62%    
  Thu, Mar 5 253 Cal St. Northridge W 79-77 56%    
  Sat, Mar 7 243 @Cal Poly L 79-84 33%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 4.5 2.7 0.6 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 15.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 4.0 6.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 16.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 6.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 2.9 4.7 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 15.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.2 6.2 9.9 12.5 14.2 14.5 12.5 9.9 7.3 4.1 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 12.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 10.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 18.2% 18.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 12.4% 12.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.0% 5.3% 5.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.5% 5.6% 5.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-9 4.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
10-10 7.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.2
9-11 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 9.9
8-12 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.5
7-13 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
6-14 14.2% 14.2
5-15 12.5% 12.5
4-16 9.9% 9.9
3-17 6.2% 6.2
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%