Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 #299
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #264
Pace 72.4 #85
Improvement +2.4 #76

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #304 F C D- A- F
Defense #262 D+ F C+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #200 1.06 #290 -2.3 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #13 0.65 #318 +3.1 #49
Three Pointers 29% #358 0.89 #328 -7.9 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #352 -7.1 #351
Freethrows 20.9 #35 74% #110 15.6 #30
Second Chance 33.3% #107 1.00 #245 0.33 #143
Turnovers 18.9% #321
Total Offense -5.0 #304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.13 #149 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #239 0.91 #353 -0.6 #226
Three Pointers 41% #185 1.07 #250 -1.1 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #259 -2.4 #258
Freethrows 21.6 #339 71% #101 15.3 #329
Second Chance 36.1% #341 1.09 #252 0.39 #332
Turnovers 17.3% #121
Total Defense -2.8 #262

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #344 0.9% #249
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.0% #339 3.8% #251
Possession Length 17.4 #174 16.4 #42
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #120 0.22 #319
Improvement -0.1 #185 +2.5 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.2 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 9.3% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.0% 25.7% 50.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 7.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 75 @California L 60 - 87 5% -14  0 - 1 -16 -10 D- F F -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 356 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 81% +7  1 - 1 -1 -1 D- F F +1 F B A+
 Fri, Nov 14 62 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 4% -11  1 - 2 -10 +1 C- C+ D- -13 A- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 153 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 15% -7  1 - 3 -9 +8 C- A+ F -17 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 95% +12  2 - 3 -11 -2 F B B -10 F B D-
 Tue, Nov 25 111 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 9% -13  2 - 4 -23 -19 F B- F +0 C D A+
 Sun, Nov 30 143 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 14% -4  3 - 4 +9 +7 D D+ A+ +2 A+ F A-
 Thu, Dec 4 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 22% -7  3 - 5 0 - 1 -21 -11 F A F -9 D- F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 14% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -21 +6 A+ F C -26 F F F
 Thu, Dec 11 147 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 29% -6  3 - 7 -13 -8 F B+ F -4 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 279 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 57% -4  3 - 8 -18 -10 F F F -7 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 23 183 Idaho W 64 - 63 38% +2  4 - 8 -4 -8 B- C- F +4 A+ C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 123 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 24% -6  4 - 9 0 - 3 -5 +8 C- A+ A+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 181 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 19% -2  5 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +7 D- A- A -3 C D- B+
 Thu, Jan 8 293 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 61% +0  6 - 9 2 - 3 -10 -11 F A+ F +1 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 250 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 28% -5  6 - 10 2 - 4 -8 -4 D F D -3 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 144 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 29% -9  6 - 11 2 - 5 -8 +1 F A+ A+ -9 C B C
 Sat, Jan 17 109 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 20% -13  6 - 12 2 - 6 -20 -12 F F F -8 C+ C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 106 @Hawaii L 64 - 79 8%
 Thu, Jan 29 281 Cal Poly W 84 - 82 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 181 UC Davis L 75 - 78 38%
 Thu, Feb 5 123 @UC Irvine L 65 - 78 10%
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Cal St. Fullerton L 77 - 84 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 106 Hawaii L 67 - 76 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 293 @UC Riverside L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 229 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 81 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 109 @UC San Diego L 67 - 82 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 250 Long Beach St. W 75 - 74 50%
 Thu, Mar 5 207 Cal St. Northridge L 80 - 82 42%
 Sat, Mar 7 281 @Cal Poly L 81 - 85 35%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -8 -5 F C D- -3 D+ F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.9 3.8 0.4 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 7.9 7.7 1.2 0.0 18.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.2 10.3 10.5 2.2 0.1 26.6 10th
11th 1.8 6.7 12.0 9.8 2.2 0.1 32.6 11th
Total 1.8 7.0 15.2 21.6 21.6 17.0 9.7 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-11 4.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.2
8-12 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
7-13 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.9
6-14 21.6% 21.6
5-15 21.6% 21.6
4-16 15.2% 15.2
3-17 7.0% 7.0
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%