Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #153
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #124
Pace 70.2 #148
Improvement +1.7 #104

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #262 C C- F D+ B-
Defense #77 B B C+ F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.16 #168 +2.8 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #236 0.64 #323 -2.1 #289
Three Pointers 39% #217 1.01 #192 -1.0 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #185 -0.3 #184
Freethrows 17.2 #215 69% #300 11.8 #245
Second Chance 31.8% #150 0.93 #320 0.30 #226
Turnovers 19.2% #331
Total Offense -3.1 #262

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.08 #82 +0.1 #173
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #199 0.69 #82 +1.0 #118
Three Pointers 39% #238 0.96 #107 +2.0 #113
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #82 +3.1 #81
Freethrows 21.4 #336 75% #302 16.0 #342
Second Chance 27.5% #73 1.01 #135 0.28 #86
Turnovers 17.5% #108
Total Defense +3.7 #77

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #84 0.6% #224
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.1% #210 -6.6% #67
Possession Length 18.0 #245 16.2 #31
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #213 0.21 #290
Improvement -0.9 #232 +2.6 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.8% 25.9% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 94.8% 98.4% 91.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 53.4% 65.9% 42.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round22.7% 25.9% 20.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 412 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 77 @Stanford L 79 - 89 17% -6  0 - 1 +1 +2 A+ F F +0 B- C- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 101 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 25% -12  0 - 2 -2 +2 D- A F -5 D+ B C
 Mon, Nov 17 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 85% +7  1 - 2 +2 +11 A+ A+ F -9 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 233 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 56% +1  2 - 2 +4 -6 F D+ F +10 B- A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 283 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 67% +5  3 - 2 +2 -6 D+ F D +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 261 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 80% -2  3 - 3 -14 -11 F C- F -3 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 78 @Colorado L 73 - 84 17% -1  3 - 4 -0 +2 D+ A+ F -3 B B B+
 Sat, Dec 20 172 @Tulane L 61 - 63 44% -3  3 - 5 -0 -7 F C D- +6 A+ B A+
 Thu, Jan 1 217 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 53% +0  4 - 5 1 - 0 +5 +5 C D+ B -2 B A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 219 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 54% -5  5 - 5 2 - 0 +6 +13 A+ F A+ -8 D- A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 290 Sacramento St. W 96 - 69 84% +14  6 - 5 3 - 0 +17 +14 A+ F C +1 B A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 185 Northern Colorado W 76 - 73 69% -1  7 - 5 4 - 0 -2 -3 C+ A+ F +1 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 315 Northern Arizona W 63 - 52 88% +5  8 - 5 5 - 0 -1 -9 F C- F +9 C+ A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 22 243 @Eastern Washington W 65 - 61 58% +5  9 - 5 6 - 0 +2 -8 F B+ D- +10 A+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 24 183 @Idaho L 71 - 72 47%
 Thu, Jan 29 161 Montana W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 152 Montana St. W 71 - 68 61%
 Mon, Feb 2 219 Idaho St. W 74 - 67 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 290 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 68%
 Thu, Feb 12 315 @Northern Arizona W 73 - 66 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 185 @Northern Colorado L 73 - 74 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 183 Idaho W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 243 Eastern Washington W 78 - 70 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 152 @Montana St. L 68 - 71 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 161 @Montana L 73 - 75 41%
 Mon, Mar 2 217 Weber St. W 77 - 70 74%
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 5 +1 -3 C C- F +4 B B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 8.3 15.3 14.4 9.1 3.6 0.8 53.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 7.9 9.5 4.1 0.7 0.0 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.9 5.3 1.3 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.1 9.3 15.6 19.2 19.5 15.1 9.1 3.6 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.6
16-2 99.8% 9.1    8.9 0.2
15-3 95.6% 14.4    12.7 1.7 0.0
14-4 78.4% 15.3    9.5 5.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 43.5% 8.3    3.0 3.9 1.3 0.1
12-6 11.9% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 53.4% 53.4 38.8 12.0 2.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 46.8% 46.8% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.6% 38.3% 38.3% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2
16-2 9.1% 35.3% 35.3% 13.2 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.1 5.9
15-3 15.1% 30.6% 30.6% 13.5 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.3 10.5
14-4 19.5% 24.5% 24.5% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 14.7
13-5 19.2% 21.1% 21.1% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.0 0.0 15.1
12-6 15.6% 16.7% 16.7% 14.4 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.0 13.0
11-7 9.3% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 8.2
10-8 5.1% 9.3% 9.3% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 4.6
9-9 2.2% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.1 0.1 2.1
8-10 0.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 13.8 77.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.9 26.4 62.5 9.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%