San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.7 #101
Expected Predictive Rating +3.8 #107
Pace 65.1 #281
Improvement -1.1 #244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #107 C+ B+ C+ C C+
Defense #109 B- B F B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.16 #167 -2.1 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #272 0.82 #87 -1.1 #231
Three Pointers 49% #38 1.05 #144 +4.7 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #132 +1.6 #131
Freethrows 18.6 #136 69% #292 12.8 #180
Second Chance 33.2% #111 1.19 #36 0.39 #52
Turnovers 15.6% #129
Total Offense +2.6 #107

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #176 1.12 #128 +0.5 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #69 0.72 #116 -1.0 #260
Three Pointers 37% #295 0.98 #127 +2.9 #74
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #99 +2.5 #100
Freethrows 15.9 #83 72% #160 11.4 #87
Second Chance 26.7% #51 1.01 #140 0.27 #67
Turnovers 13.4% #336
Total Defense +2.1 #109

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #150 -0.9% #97
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #139 -4.0% #104
Possession Length 18.3 #274 17.6 #238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #340 0.14 #73
Improvement -0.4 #202 -0.7 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.5 10.9 11.5
.500 or above 85.9% 97.7% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 94.6% 71.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round1.0% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 35 - 39 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 92 @Memphis L 70 - 76 34% -9  0 - 1 +3 +1 A- C D+ +2 B+ F C
 Wed, Nov 12 153 Portland St. W 80 - 70 75% +12  1 - 1 +8 +11 A B+ B -3 A F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 119 Bradley W 75 - 64 68% +2  2 - 1 +11 +4 A+ F F +7 A+ A- C
 Tue, Nov 18 276 Northwestern St. W 84 - 64 90% +15  3 - 1 +11 +15 A+ D A+ -2 A C D+
 Sat, Nov 22 71 Minnesota W 77 - 65 37% +6  4 - 1 +20 +17 A+ A+ B- +5 D A- A-
 Thu, Nov 27 78 Colorado L 69 - 79 39% -1  4 - 2 -2 -0 B C+ F -2 C+ B F
 Fri, Nov 28 80 Nevada L 65 - 81 39% -5  4 - 3 -9 +0 D A+ F -10 D- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 328 North Alabama L 63 - 65 94% +4  4 - 4 -15 -13 F D+ C -3 A- F B
 Sun, Dec 7 76 Mississippi St. W 65 - 62 39% +5  5 - 4 +11 +5 D- A+ A+ +6 A+ A F
 Sat, Dec 13 28 @Saint Louis L 75 - 85 12% -1  5 - 5 +8 +10 A- C+ B+ -3 B A F
 Wed, Dec 17 268 Loyola Chicago W 85 - 71 84% +12  6 - 5 +8 +21 A+ C A+ -11 A- F F
 Sun, Dec 21 360 Morgan St. W 94 - 64 97% +13  7 - 5 +11 +14 D- A+ C+ -2 D D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 121 @Seattle W 67 - 59 46% +4  8 - 5 1 - 0 +14 +2 F A+ A+ +12 A+ B F
 Tue, Dec 30 195 @Oregon St. L 62 - 70 65% -3  8 - 6 1 - 1 -7 -4 F C C -4 F A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 209 San Diego W 74 - 64 84% +4  9 - 6 2 - 1 +4 -4 F B- A +7 B- A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 210 Portland W 73 - 68 84% -4  10 - 6 3 - 1 -1 +1 F A- B -2 D A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 155 @Loyola Marymount L 82 - 84 2OT 56% -1  10 - 7 3 - 2 +1 +4 F A+ C -2 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 279 @Pepperdine W 80 - 60 79% +12  11 - 7 4 - 2 +16 +13 A C+ C- +5 A+ B F
 Tue, Jan 13 42 St. Mary's L 68 - 82 33% -9  11 - 8 4 - 3 -5 +4 A- B- B- -9 D+ C C-
 Sun, Jan 18 141 Washington St. W 85 - 80 74% +0  12 - 8 5 - 3 +3 +17 A+ A+ F -13 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 6 @Gonzaga L 66 - 85 4%
 Wed, Jan 28 54 @Santa Clara L 70 - 79 21%
 Sat, Jan 31 132 Pacific W 74 - 68 71%
 Tue, Feb 3 155 Loyola Marymount W 73 - 66 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 42 @St. Mary's L 65 - 75 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 195 Oregon St. W 75 - 65 83%
 Sun, Feb 15 209 @San Diego W 78 - 73 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 6 Gonzaga L 69 - 82 11%
 Sat, Feb 21 54 Santa Clara L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 132 @Pacific L 70 - 71 49%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 9 +5 +3 C+ B+ C+ +2 B- B F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.8 9.9 19.5 12.4 2.8 0.1 45.5 4th
5th 0.1 5.3 12.4 4.8 0.4 23.0 5th
6th 1.1 8.3 3.4 0.2 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.3 18.0 26.0 24.8 14.8 5.8 1.1 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.7% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 13.5% 13.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.1% 5.2% 4.4% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.9%
12-6 5.8% 2.9% 2.7% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 0.3%
11-7 14.8% 1.8% 1.8% 11.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.5
10-8 24.8% 1.0% 1.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 24.6
9-9 26.0% 0.6% 0.6% 11.7 0.1 0.1 25.8
8-10 18.0% 0.3% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9
7-11 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 11.5 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%