Colorado
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #78
Expected Predictive Rating +7.7 #78
Pace 71.1 #119
Improvement -0.4 #208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #63 B+ C A- B+ B-
Defense #108 B- C+ C- C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #29 1.26 #77 +6.5 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #193 0.87 #43 +0.8 #135
Three Pointers 35% #309 1.08 #91 -1.9 #254
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #46 +5.3 #46
Freethrows 19.7 #83 77% #27 15.2 #47
Second Chance 33.2% #113 0.98 #268 0.32 #164
Turnovers 13.9% #41
Total Offense +5.5 #63

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #153 1.08 #87 +0.8 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #52 0.80 #257 -2.4 #336
Three Pointers 35% #338 0.98 #126 +3.9 #44
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #115 +2.2 #114
Freethrows 16.8 #144 71% #103 11.9 #129
Second Chance 27.8% #83 1.10 #257 0.30 #134
Turnovers 15.6% #232
Total Defense +2.1 #108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #103 -1.1% #85
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #48 -3.3% #119
Possession Length 16.2 #70 17.8 #255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #21 0.16 #141
Improvement -4.0 #349 +3.6 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 5.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 5.0% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 10.3
.500 or above 62.3% 78.1% 46.3%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 10.5% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 4.2% 15.4%
First Four1.9% 2.9% 0.9%
First Round2.2% 3.4% 1.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 10
Quad 25 - 46 - 14
Quad 36 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 152 Montana St. W 84 - 78 83% +1  1 - 0 +4 +12 A+ D+ B+ -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 243 Eastern Washington W 102 - 97 OT 91% +1  2 - 0 -3 +13 A- D- A+ -16 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 65 Providence W 97 - 88 58% +4  3 - 0 +14 +11 B+ A+ B +2 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Nov 17 311 Alabama St. W 94 - 66 95% +19  4 - 0 +16 +14 A C B +2 B+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 21 181 UC Davis W 95 - 79 87% +6  5 - 0 +12 +20 A+ B- A+ -9 C F C
 Thu, Nov 27 101 San Francisco W 79 - 69 61% +1  6 - 0 +15 +10 A C A- +5 C A- A-
 Fri, Nov 28 47 Washington W 81 - 68 37% +9  7 - 0 +24 +14 A+ A- C +10 A+ D- F
 Mon, Dec 1 142 California Baptist W 78 - 70 82% -2  8 - 0 +6 +7 B B+ C -1 B+ A- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 96 @Colorado St. L 86 - 91 47% -4  8 - 1 +3 +17 A+ D A+ -14 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 345 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 64 97% +10  9 - 1 +9 +6 A+ F C +2 C C A
 Wed, Dec 17 153 Portland St. W 84 - 73 83% +1  10 - 1 +9 +12 B+ C C+ -3 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 20 77 Stanford L 68 - 77 50% -3  10 - 2 -1 -1 B- C F -0 A+ C D-
 Sun, Dec 28 185 Northern Colorado L 81 - 86 87% -2  10 - 3 -10 +1 D- C- A+ -11 F C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 88 @Arizona St. W 95 - 89 43% +6  11 - 3 1 - 0 +15 +12 B B B- +2 A- A- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 104 Utah W 85 - 73 72% +6  12 - 3 2 - 0 +14 +10 B C+ C +3 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 15 Texas Tech L 71 - 73 24% -9  12 - 4 2 - 1 +13 +6 C D+ A+ +7 A A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 49 @Cincinnati L 68 - 77 27% -13  12 - 5 2 - 2 +5 +4 A- B- F +1 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 52 @West Virginia L 61 - 72 28% -6  12 - 6 2 - 3 +3 +7 C- D A+ -7 C F C
 Tue, Jan 20 19 Kansas L 69 - 75 26% -4  12 - 7 2 - 4 +8 +7 C- A A+ +1 A- D+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 53 Central Florida W 81 - 80 50%
 Thu, Jan 29 8 @Iowa St. L 69 - 85 7%
 Sun, Feb 1 45 TCU L 74 - 75 48%
 Wed, Feb 4 41 @Baylor L 76 - 84 24%
 Sat, Feb 7 88 Arizona St. W 83 - 79 65%
 Wed, Feb 11 15 @Texas Tech L 72 - 85 11%
 Sat, Feb 14 12 @BYU L 73 - 87 9%
 Sat, Feb 21 61 Oklahoma St. W 85 - 83 56%
 Wed, Feb 25 85 Kansas St. W 84 - 81 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 4 @Houston L 63 - 80 6%
 Tue, Mar 3 104 @Utah W 81 - 80 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 2 Arizona L 74 - 87 12%
Totals 16 - 15 6 - 12 +8 +5 B+ C A- +2 B- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.5 2.9 2.1 0.2 5.7 8th
9th 0.2 3.7 4.8 0.8 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 2.2 8.1 2.4 0.1 12.9 10th
11th 0.8 8.4 5.9 0.3 15.5 11th
12th 0.2 5.1 9.1 1.4 0.0 15.8 12th
13th 0.0 1.9 9.2 3.7 0.1 15.0 13th
14th 0.5 5.4 5.0 0.4 11.2 14th
15th 0.1 2.2 4.4 0.8 0.0 7.4 15th
16th 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.4 16th
Total 0.7 4.6 12.6 21.0 24.0 19.8 11.0 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 73.9% 2.2% 71.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 73.3%
10-8 1.3% 59.9% 0.8% 59.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 59.6%
9-9 4.7% 29.1% 0.3% 28.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.0 3.3 28.8%
8-10 11.0% 7.6% 0.1% 7.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 10.2 7.4%
7-11 19.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.1 0.1 0.0 19.7 0.6%
6-12 24.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 24.0 0.0%
5-13 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 21.0
4-14 12.6% 12.6
3-15 4.6% 4.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 0.1% 3.3% 10.3 96.7 3.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%