Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.3#9
Expected Predictive Rating+28.8#1
Pace75.9#40
Improvement+0.6#134

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#14
First Shot+10.9#5
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#224
Layup/Dunks+7.9#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#270
Freethrows+2.3#69
Improvement+0.0#178

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#11
First Shot+6.0#29
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#21
Layups/Dunks+5.4#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#149
Freethrows+2.1#63
Improvement+0.6#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.5% 5.1% 2.6%
#1 Seed 22.1% 25.0% 14.0%
Top 2 Seed 48.3% 53.4% 33.9%
Top 4 Seed 81.5% 85.7% 69.9%
Top 6 Seed 94.3% 96.2% 88.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.7% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.7% 98.3%
Average Seed 3.0 2.8 3.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 96.2% 92.3%
Conference Champion 24.2% 26.3% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round99.2% 99.6% 98.1%
Second Round90.6% 92.7% 84.9%
Sweet Sixteen61.4% 64.2% 53.7%
Elite Eight34.1% 36.4% 27.7%
Final Four17.3% 18.7% 13.2%
Championship Game8.2% 9.1% 5.9%
National Champion3.7% 4.2% 2.3%

Next Game: Auburn (Home) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 6
Quad 26 - 117 - 7
Quad 33 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 15 Florida W 93-87 56%     1 - 0 +23.8 +16.4 +6.5
  Fri, Nov 7 254 Utah Tech W 93-67 99%     2 - 0 +17.7 +15.5 +1.8
  Tue, Nov 11 263 Northern Arizona W 84-49 99%     3 - 0 +26.3 +5.0 +20.7
  Fri, Nov 14 31 UCLA W 69-65 71%     4 - 0 +17.6 +5.2 +12.5
  Wed, Nov 19 5 @Connecticut W 71-67 34%     5 - 0 +27.5 +17.3 +10.6
  Mon, Nov 24 291 Denver W 103-73 99%     6 - 0 +19.9 +13.1 +4.6
  Sat, Nov 29 231 Norfolk St. W 98-61 98%     7 - 0 +29.9 +17.7 +9.5
  Sat, Dec 6 20 Auburn W 84-77 74%    
  Fri, Dec 12 11 Alabama W 90-89 51%    
  Tue, Dec 16 234 Abilene Christian W 85-58 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 52 San Diego St. W 82-73 80%    
  Mon, Dec 22 218 Bethune-Cookman W 90-64 99%    
  Mon, Dec 29 147 South Dakota St. W 87-65 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 117 @Utah W 86-73 88%    
  Wed, Jan 7 71 Kansas St. W 92-77 91%    
  Sat, Jan 10 48 @TCU W 79-74 68%    
  Wed, Jan 14 82 Arizona St. W 88-73 92%    
  Sat, Jan 17 63 @Central Florida W 87-80 75%    
  Wed, Jan 21 68 Cincinnati W 83-69 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 65 West Virginia W 78-64 89%    
  Mon, Jan 26 8 @BYU L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 82 @Arizona St. W 85-76 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 47 Oklahoma St. W 92-81 84%    
  Mon, Feb 9 18 @Kansas W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 30 Texas Tech W 82-73 77%    
  Wed, Feb 18 8 BYU W 80-77 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 7 @Houston L 68-72 38%    
  Tue, Feb 24 28 @Baylor W 83-81 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 18 Kansas W 78-72 71%    
  Mon, Mar 2 6 Iowa St. W 81-79 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 64 @Colorado W 84-76 74%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.2 7.2 7.2 3.8 0.9 24.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.8 7.5 4.8 1.0 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.7 2.7 0.3 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.6 7.7 11.2 13.8 16.7 15.8 12.4 8.2 3.9 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.7% 3.8    3.6 0.2
16-2 87.6% 7.2    5.4 1.7 0.1
15-3 57.9% 7.2    3.6 2.9 0.7 0.0
14-4 26.5% 4.2    1.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.2% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 14.5 7.0 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.9% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.2% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.4 5.3 2.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.4% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.7 5.7 5.4 1.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 15.8% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.0 4.4 7.4 3.3 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-5 16.7% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.5 2.1 6.1 6.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.8% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.2 0.6 2.9 5.1 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.2% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 4.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 7.7% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
9-9 4.6% 99.9% 3.1% 96.8% 5.8 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 2.5% 98.3% 3.4% 94.9% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.2%
7-11 1.5% 89.7% 0.9% 88.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 89.6%
6-12 0.6% 64.4% 1.1% 63.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 64.0%
5-13 0.2% 31.4% 31.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.4%
4-14 0.1% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.4% 19.0% 80.4% 3.0 22.1 26.2 20.1 13.1 7.9 4.9 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 93.8 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 72.4 27.6