Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#13
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#36
Pace75.7#31
Improvement+1.9#97

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#18
First Shot+6.7#35
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#40
Layup/Dunks+9.2#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#282
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement+1.0#122

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#19
First Shot+6.6#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#73
Layups/Dunks+7.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#244
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement+0.9#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.5% 5.1% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 12.7% 14.0% 6.8%
Top 4 Seed 47.2% 50.5% 33.1%
Top 6 Seed 78.5% 81.7% 65.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.1% 97.2% 91.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.7% 96.9% 90.8%
Average Seed 4.8 4.6 5.6
.500 or above 98.8% 99.4% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.3% 95.5%
Conference Champion 11.5% 13.1% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 1.4% 5.0%
First Round95.4% 96.7% 89.7%
Second Round79.3% 81.4% 70.2%
Sweet Sixteen45.2% 47.8% 34.2%
Elite Eight20.7% 22.1% 15.0%
Final Four9.7% 10.5% 6.3%
Championship Game3.9% 4.3% 2.5%
National Champion1.6% 1.8% 0.8%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 212 - 12
Quad 35 - 017 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 346   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +14.3 +7.6 +5.9
  Nov 09, 2024 285   Old Dominion W 102-44 99%     2 - 0 +48.2 +19.5 +25.6
  Nov 15, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 44%     2 - 1 +3.6 +9.4 -3.6
  Nov 22, 2024 1   Duke L 55-69 35%     2 - 2 +7.1 -6.0 +12.6
  Nov 27, 2024 120   Davidson W 104-71 90%     3 - 2 +35.7 +18.4 +13.7
  Nov 28, 2024 45   Oklahoma L 77-82 71%     3 - 3 +6.2 +8.4 -2.2
  Nov 29, 2024 32   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 65%     3 - 4 +6.0 +8.4 -2.2
  Dec 07, 2024 240   Southern Utah W 102-66 98%     4 - 4 +28.9 +16.9 +8.6
  Dec 14, 2024 31   UCLA L 54-57 65%     4 - 5 +10.0 -5.3 +15.0
  Dec 18, 2024 115   Samford W 96-64 93%     5 - 5 +32.2 +18.8 +12.7
  Dec 21, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 94-41 97%     6 - 5 +46.6 +20.1 +26.6
  Dec 30, 2024 62   TCU W 90-81 85%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +15.0 +29.1 -13.5
  Jan 04, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati W 72-67 59%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +19.6 +11.1 +8.5
  Jan 07, 2025 32   @ West Virginia W 75-56 55%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +34.7 +19.0 +17.5
  Jan 11, 2025 71   Central Florida W 88-80 87%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +13.1 +10.1 +2.3
  Jan 14, 2025 22   Baylor W 81-70 67%     11 - 5 5 - 0 +23.5 +15.6 +8.3
  Jan 18, 2025 16   @ Texas Tech L 54-70 41%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +3.3 -8.8 +11.4
  Jan 21, 2025 101   @ Oklahoma St. W 83-73 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 95   Colorado W 83-69 91%    
  Jan 27, 2025 4   Iowa St. L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 63   @ Arizona St. W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 04, 2025 43   @ BYU W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 16   Texas Tech W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 89   @ Kansas St. W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Houston L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 17, 2025 22   @ Baylor L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   BYU W 82-74 79%    
  Feb 26, 2025 70   Utah W 85-73 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 74-80 27%    
  Mar 04, 2025 63   Arizona St. W 82-71 85%    
  Mar 08, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 74-79 31%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 4.0 4.3 1.7 0.4 11.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 7.0 7.3 1.5 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 8.9 8.2 1.5 0.0 21.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 7.1 7.6 1.4 18.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.9 6.8 1.8 0.1 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.2 1.4 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 6.6 12.4 17.8 20.3 17.8 12.8 5.8 1.8 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.5% 1.7    1.5 0.2 0.0
17-3 73.8% 4.3    2.3 1.7 0.2
16-4 31.2% 4.0    1.1 1.8 0.9 0.1
15-5 6.4% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 5.4 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.8% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.8% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 12.8% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 3.0 1.1 3.2 4.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 17.8% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 3.8 0.5 1.8 4.7 6.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 100.0%
14-6 20.3% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.6 0.1 0.4 2.5 6.4 6.7 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 17.8% 99.7% 5.6% 94.2% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.2 5.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.7%
12-8 12.4% 96.6% 3.9% 92.8% 6.8 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 96.5%
11-9 6.6% 89.9% 2.0% 87.9% 8.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.7 89.7%
10-10 3.0% 50.0% 1.7% 48.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.5 49.2%
9-11 1.1% 11.3% 0.9% 10.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 10.5%
8-12 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 11.0 0.0 0.3 3.3%
7-13
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.1% 9.6% 86.5% 4.8 4.5 8.2 14.4 20.1 17.9 13.4 6.8 4.2 2.4 2.2 1.7 0.3 3.9 95.7%